Witi
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Witi's performance-implied value at EUR 0.3M-0.9M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.1M-0.4M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.3M-0.5M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.08x the positional average in the league (935 minutes, league coefficient 0.58). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 77
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 7.3th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 29.8 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €283k vs market €500k |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -26% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.58 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 935 (31% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.19
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.44
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 7 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.58 (rank 9)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1231
- Opponent strength
- 1352
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €267k – €474k
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -29% (IQR -43% to -5%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ⚠Limited sample: 935 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.58 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 58 (ATT)
- Relative output kept
- 71%–130%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 66%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | CD Nacional | Liga Portugal | LW | 26 | 935 | 31% | 1 | 1 | 0.19 | 0.44 | 1352 | 1231 | 0.58 |
| 2020/21 | CD Nacional | Liga Portugal | LB | 19 | 1026 | 34% | 0 | 2 | 0.18 | 0.22 | 1339 | 1136 | 0.61 |
| 2018/19 | CD Nacional | Liga Portugal | RW | 32 | 2035 | 67% | 2 | 6 | 0.35 | 0.55 | 1373 | 1183 | 0.65 |
| 2016/17 | CD Nacional | Liga Portugal | LW | 12 | 578 | 19% | 0 | 1 | 0.16 | 0.43 | 1365 | 1172 | 0.58 |
| 2015/16 | CD Nacional | Liga Portugal | LW | 18 | 993 | 32% | 1 | 1 | 0.18 | 0.31 | 1401 | 1306 | 0.58 |
| 2014/15 | CD Nacional | Liga Portugal | RW | 1 | 90 | 3% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.33 | 1282 | 1394 | 0.68 |
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vyacheslav Podberezkin Premier Liga · 2022 | 30 | €600k | €350k | fell |
| Nildo Petrolina Liga Portugal · 2016 | 30 | €500k | €400k | fell |
| Jordan White Scottish Premiership · 2021 | 29 | €350k | €425k | rose |
| Conor Washington Scottish Premiership · 2020 | 28 | €650k | €575k | flat |
| Nemanja Obradovic Premier Liga · 2018 | 29 | €250k | €300k | rose |
| Mostapha El Kabir Super Lig · 2019 | 31 | €600k | €100k | fell |
| Massimo Bruno Jupiler Pro League · 2023 | 30 | €550k | €300k | fell |
| Onur Ayik Super Lig · 2019 | 29 | €400k | €250k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 Jul 2025 | Al-Orooba | Nacional | Unknown | €500k |
| 5 Feb 2025 | Dibba Al-Hisn | Al-Orooba | Free / loan | €600k |
| 4 Jul 2024 | Nacional | Dibba Al-Hisn | Free / loan | €850k |
| 30 Jun 2015 | Benfica U19 | Nacional | Free / loan | €300k |
| 26 Feb 2015 | Nacional | Benfica U19 | Free / loan | €300k |
| 1 Jan 2015 | Nacional U19 | Nacional | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2014 | LD Maputo | Nacional U19 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.