Stefan Loncar
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Stefan Loncar's performance-implied value at EUR 0.7M-1.2M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.3M-0.8M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.3M-1.0M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.57x the positional average in the league (1797 minutes, league coefficient 0.56). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: 47
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 26.6th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 30.4 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €357k vs market €1.2M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -51% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.56 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Very High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1797 (67% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.30
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.34
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 27 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.56 (rank 10)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1212
- Opponent strength
- 1342
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €350k – €985k
Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 21 pts; relative output down 28% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -39% (IQR -53% to -17%).
Risk profile
Overall: Very High
- ⚠Limited sample: 1797 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.56 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠League level estimated mainly from squad values (few matches vs other leagues).
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⚠Age 30: resale value typically declines.
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 18 (MID)
- Relative output kept
- 54%–153%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 56%
- Confidence
- Low
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Akron Togliatti | Premier Liga | CM | 28 | 1797 | 67% | 4 | 2 | 0.30 | 0.34 | 1342 | 1212 | 0.56 |
| 2024/25 | Akron Togliatti | Premier Liga | CM | 29 | 2366 | 88% | 6 | 6 | 0.46 | 0.46 | 1313 | 1260 | 0.55 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Russian Cup | Akron Togliatti | 6 | 279 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Russian Cup | Akron Togliatti | 2 | 63 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adil Auassar Eredivisie · 2017 | 31 | €750k | €300k | fell |
| Rachid Bourabia Jupiler Pro League · 2014 | 29 | €900k | €600k | fell |
| Mark-Jan Fledderus Eredivisie · 2014 | 32 | €900k | €700k | fell |
| Mattheus Liga Portugal · 2024 | 30 | €1.0M | €1.0M | flat |
| Jasmin Scuk Super Lig · 2019 | 29 | €900k | €500k | fell |
| Rob Schoofs Jupiler Pro League · 2023 | 29 | €2.2M | €2.2M | flat |
| Ryan Koolwijk Eredivisie · 2014 | 29 | €1.2M | €600k | fell |
| Danny Holla Eredivisie · 2017 | 30 | €1.3M | €400k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2024 | Debrecen | Akron Tolyatti | €125k | €500k |
| 26 Jan 2023 | Novi Pazar | Debrecen | Unknown | €800k |
| 9 Jul 2021 | NK Istra | Novi Pazar | Free / loan | €100k |
| 28 Jan 2019 | Sutjeska Niksic | NK Istra | Unknown | €300k |
| 17 Feb 2017 | Rad | Sutjeska Niksic | Unknown | €200k |
| 31 Aug 2016 | Sutjeska Niksic | Rad | Free / loan | €300k |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.