Gaëtan Perrin
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Gaëtan Perrin's performance-implied value at EUR 2.6M-3.7M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 2.0M-4.8M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 1.1M-3.3M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.77x the positional average in the league (803 minutes, league coefficient 0.56). Confidence is low: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: not assigned
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
Insufficient sample (< 900 league minutes)
| Performance | Above average | 55.6th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 30.1 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €3.2M vs market €5.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -63% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.56 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Very High | |
| Data confidence | Low |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 901 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 803 (26% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.56
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.34
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 56 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.56 (rank 5)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1540
- Opponent strength
- 1354
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €1.1M – €3.3M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 62 pts; changed club; team strength up (+147 Elo); league level down (-72 Elo); relative output down 52% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -55% (IQR -63% to -41%).
Risk profile
Overall: Very High
- ▲Small sample: 803 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.56 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠League level estimated mainly from squad values (few matches vs other leagues).
- ⚠Age 30: resale value typically declines.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 20 (ATT)
- Relative output kept
- 76%–104%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 50%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | FK Krasnodar | Premier Liga | RW | 12 | 469 | 17% | 1 | 3 | 0.77 | 0.34 | 1354 | 1536 | 0.56 |
| 2025/26 | LOSC Lille | Ligue 1 | RW | 12 | 334 | 11% | 1 | 0 | 0.27 | 0.25 | 1387 | 1547 | 0.88 |
| 2024/25 | AJ Auxerre | Ligue 1 | RW | 34 | 2707 | 88% | 10 | 11 | 0.70 | 0.70 | 1468 | 1393 | 0.88 |
| 2022/23 | AJ Auxerre | Ligue 1 | RM | 37 | 1385 | 40% | 3 | 1 | 0.26 | 0.37 | 1447 | 1314 | 0.82 |
| 2015/16 | Olympique Lyon | Ligue 1 | ST | 3 | 29 | 1% | 1 | 0 | 3.10 | 0.56 | 1431 | 1533 | 0.78 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Russian Cup | FK Krasnodar | 8 | 465 | 1 | 1 | — |
| 2025/26 | Uefa Europa League | LOSC Lille | 3 | 185 | 0 | 0 | 1557 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pavel Mamaev Premier Liga · 2017 | 29 | €7.0M | €4.0M | fell |
| Filip Holosko Super Lig · 2014 | 30 | €4.2M | €1.8M | fell |
| Éder Premier Liga · 2018 | 31 | €3.5M | €1.2M | fell |
| Wilson Eduardo Liga Portugal · 2020 | 30 | €4.0M | €1.3M | fell |
| Mustapha Yatabaré Super Lig · 2015 | 29 | €2.5M | €1.2M | fell |
| Burak Yilmaz Super Lig · 2016 | 31 | €5.0M | €3.5M | fell |
| Jelle Vossen Jupiler Pro League · 2018 | 29 | €2.5M | €950k | fell |
| Garry Rodrigues Super Lig · 2019 | 29 | €7.5M | €5.0M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Feb 2026 | Krasnodar | Lille | €5.0M | €6.0M |
| 23 Jul 2025 | AJ Auxerre | Krasnodar | €5.0M | €8.0M |
| 1 Jul 2021 | US Orléans | AJ Auxerre | Free / loan | €800k |
| 21 Jan 2018 | Lyon | US Orléans | Free / loan | €300k |
| 20 Jan 2018 | US Orléans | Lyon | Free / loan | €300k |
| 1 Jul 2017 | Lyon | US Orléans | Free / loan | €300k |
| 1 Jul 2016 | Olymp. Lyon B | Lyon | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jan 2014 | Olymp. Lyon U19 | Olymp. Lyon B | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.