Lucas Tousart
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Lucas Tousart's performance-implied value at EUR 2.1M-3.8M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.5M-1.6M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.7M-2.1M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.15x the positional average in the league (827 minutes, league coefficient 0.88). Confidence is low: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: not assigned
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
Insufficient sample (< 900 league minutes)
| Performance | Above average | 56.1th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 29.2 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €663k vs market €2.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -32% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.88 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Low |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1164 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 827 (27% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.22
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.25
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 56 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.88 (rank 5)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1407
- Opponent strength
- 1514
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €731k – €2.1M
Trajectory drivers: changed club.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -61% (IQR -78% to -32%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ▲Small sample: 827 league minutes last season.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Stade Brestois 29 | Ligue 1 | CM | 24 | 827 | 27% | 1 | 1 | 0.22 | 0.25 | 1514 | 1407 | 0.88 |
| 2024/25 | 1.FC Union Berlin | Bundesliga | CM | 15 | 561 | 18% | 0 | 1 | 0.16 | 0.21 | 1442 | 1394 | 0.94 |
| 2023/24 | 1.FC Union Berlin | Bundesliga | DM | 23 | 1574 | 51% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 1539 | 1431 | 1.01 |
| 2022/23 | Hertha BSC | Bundesliga | DM | 33 | 2948 | 96% | 5 | 3 | 0.24 | 0.25 | 1532 | 1354 | 1.04 |
| 2021/22 | Hertha BSC | Bundesliga | DM | 30 | 1958 | 64% | 2 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.11 | 1529 | 1385 | 1.05 |
| 2020/21 | Hertha BSC | Bundesliga | DM | 26 | 2096 | 68% | 1 | 1 | 0.09 | 0.10 | 1529 | 1446 | 1.06 |
| 2019/20 | Olympique Lyon | Ligue 1 | DM | 24 | 1762 | 70% | 2 | 2 | 0.20 | 0.12 | 1415 | 1566 | 0.82 |
| 2018/19 | Olympique Lyon | Ligue 1 | DM | 30 | 1728 | 51% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 1419 | 1604 | 0.82 |
| 2017/18 | Olympique Lyon | Ligue 1 | DM | 37 | 3137 | 92% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 1438 | 1645 | 0.85 |
| 2016/17 | Olympique Lyon | Ligue 1 | DM | 22 | 1633 | 48% | 1 | 1 | 0.11 | 0.09 | 1417 | 1604 | 0.88 |
| 2015/16 | Olympique Lyon | Ligue 1 | DM | 1 | 61 | 2% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.11 | 1440 | 1533 | 0.78 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024/25 | Dfb Pokal | 1.FC Union Berlin | 1 | 10 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Champions League | 1.FC Union Berlin | 5 | 238 | 0 | 1 | 1645 |
| 2023/24 | Dfb Pokal | 1.FC Union Berlin | 1 | 10 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Dfb Pokal | Hertha BSC | 1 | 56 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Dfb Pokal | Hertha BSC | 3 | 210 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2020/21 | Dfb Pokal | Hertha BSC | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2019/20 | Uefa Champions League | Olympique Lyon | 7 | 604 | 1 | 1 | 1645 |
| 2018/19 | Uefa Champions League | Olympique Lyon | 7 | 482 | 1 | 0 | 1679 |
| 2017/18 | Uefa Europa League | Olympique Lyon | 9 | 765 | 0 | 0 | 1525 |
| 2016/17 | Uefa Europa League | Olympique Lyon | 7 | 596 | 1 | 1 | 1609 |
| 2016/17 | Uefa Champions League | Olympique Lyon | 1 | 58 | 0 | 0 | 1490 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daniel Bessa Serie A · 2022 | 29 | €2.5M | €3.0M | rose |
| Valentin Eysseric Serie A · 2021 | 29 | €1.5M | €1.5M | flat |
| Ricardo Álvarez Serie A · 2017 | 29 | €4.0M | €1.5M | fell |
| Raphael Martinho Serie A · 2016 | 28 | €1.3M | €300k | fell |
| Tiberio Guarente Serie A · 2013 | 28 | €2.0M | €400k | fell |
| Ganso Ligue 1 · 2019 | 30 | €2.0M | €800k | fell |
| Daniele Galloppa Serie A · 2013 | 28 | €4.0M | €500k | fell |
| Eyong Enoh Super Lig · 2014 | 28 | €2.5M | €1.5M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Sept 2025 | Union Berlin | Stade Brestois | Unknown | €2.5M |
| 19 Jul 2023 | Hertha BSC | Union Berlin | €2.8M | €9.0M |
| 30 Jun 2020 | Lyon | Hertha BSC | Free / loan | €16.0M |
| 28 Jan 2020 | Hertha BSC | Lyon | Free / loan | €20.0M |
| 27 Jan 2020 | Lyon | Hertha BSC | €25.0M | €20.0M |
| 31 Aug 2015 | Valenciennes FC | Lyon | €2.6M | €400k |
| 1 Jan 2015 | VAFC U19 | Valenciennes FC | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2014 | VAFC U17 | VAFC U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2013 | Rodez AF U17 | VAFC U17 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2012 | Rodez AF Jugend | Rodez AF U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.