Frédéric Guilbert
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Frédéric Guilbert's performance-implied value at EUR 0.7M-2.1M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.3M-0.9M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.3M-0.7M. Confidence is low: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: not assigned
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
Insufficient sample (< 900 league minutes)
| Performance | Average | 50.7th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 31.5 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €461k vs market €800k |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -34% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.88 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Very High | |
| Data confidence | Low |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1269 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 610 (20% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.00
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.12
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 51 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.88 (rank 5)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1304
- Opponent strength
- 1501
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €303k – €680k
Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 52 pts; changed club; relative output up 30% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -35% (IQR -40% to -18%).
Risk profile
Overall: Very High
- ▲Small sample: 610 league minutes last season.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Age 32: resale value typically declines.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | FC Nantes | Ligue 1 | RB | 8 | 610 | 20% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.12 | 1501 | 1304 | 0.88 |
| 2024/25 | US Lecce | Serie A | RB | 31 | 2450 | 72% | 0 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.09 | 1493 | 1351 | 0.99 |
| 2023/24 | RC Strasbourg Alsace | Ligue 1 | LB | 32 | 2493 | 81% | 2 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.10 | 1476 | 1393 | 0.87 |
| 2022/23 | RC Strasbourg Alsace | Ligue 1 | RM | 18 | 1465 | 43% | 0 | 1 | 0.06 | 0.16 | 1441 | 1441 | 0.82 |
| 2021/22 | RC Strasbourg Alsace | Ligue 1 | RB | 33 | 2520 | 74% | 0 | 4 | 0.14 | 0.14 | 1427 | 1503 | 0.86 |
| 2020/21 | RC Strasbourg Alsace | Ligue 1 | RB | 13 | 1116 | 33% | 1 | 4 | 0.40 | 0.34 | 1465 | 1380 | 0.75 |
| 2019/20 | Aston Villa | Premier League | RB | 25 | 2041 | 60% | 0 | 2 | 0.09 | 0.18 | 1581 | 1367 | 1.14 |
| 2018/19 | SM Caen | Ligue 1 | RB | 34 | 2918 | 85% | 1 | 2 | 0.09 | 0.14 | 1445 | 1286 | 0.82 |
| 2017/18 | SM Caen | Ligue 1 | RB | 36 | 3240 | 95% | 1 | 3 | 0.11 | 0.13 | 1453 | 1299 | 0.85 |
| 2016/17 | SM Caen | Ligue 1 | RB | 23 | 2043 | 60% | 0 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.08 | 1433 | 1334 | 0.88 |
| 2016/17 | FC Girondins Bordeaux | Ligue 1 | CB | 3 | 222 | 6% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 1416 | 1507 | 0.88 |
| 2015/16 | FC Girondins Bordeaux | Ligue 1 | CB | 30 | 2507 | 73% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 1426 | 1405 | 0.78 |
| 2014/15 | FC Girondins Bordeaux | Ligue 1 | RB | 3 | 170 | 5% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.11 | 1467 | 1475 | 0.80 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024/25 | Italy Cup | US Lecce | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2015/16 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | FC Girondins Bordeaux | 3 | 270 | 0 | 1 | 1414 |
| 2015/16 | Uefa Europa League | FC Girondins Bordeaux | 3 | 180 | 0 | 0 | 1462 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pape Diakhaté Super Lig · 2015 | 31 | €800k | €500k | fell |
| Adem Alkasi Super Lig · 2014 | 30 | €500k | €300k | fell |
| Vlad Chiricheș Serie A · 2023 | 34 | €900k | €300k | fell |
| Vasilios Torosidis Serie A · 2018 | 33 | €700k | €475k | fell |
| Erhan Güven Super Lig · 2014 | 32 | €400k | €400k | flat |
| Stefan Strandberg Serie A · 2022 | 32 | €500k | €450k | flat |
| Gilles Cioni Ligue 1 · 2014 | 30 | €850k | €500k | fell |
| Oualid El Hajjam Ligue 1 · 2019 | 28 | €1.0M | €800k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 Jan 2026 | Lecce | FC Nantes | Free / loan | €800k |
| 27 Aug 2024 | R. Strasbourg | Lecce | Free / loan | €4.0M |
| 17 Jan 2023 | Aston Villa | R. Strasbourg | Free / loan | €5.0M |
| 30 Jun 2022 | R. Strasbourg | Aston Villa | Free / loan | €7.0M |
| 31 Aug 2021 | Aston Villa | R. Strasbourg | Free / loan | €6.0M |
| 30 Jun 2021 | R. Strasbourg | Aston Villa | Free / loan | €6.0M |
| 31 Jan 2021 | Aston Villa | R. Strasbourg | Free / loan | €5.0M |
| 30 Jun 2019 | SM Caen | Aston Villa | Free / loan | €6.0M |
| 1 Feb 2019 | Aston Villa | SM Caen | Free / loan | €7.0M |
| 31 Jan 2019 | SM Caen | Aston Villa | €5.0M | €7.0M |
| 28 Jul 2017 | G. Bordeaux | SM Caen | €1.5M | €2.5M |
| 30 Jun 2017 | SM Caen | G. Bordeaux | Free / loan | €2.5M |
| 24 Oct 2016 | G. Bordeaux | SM Caen | Free / loan | €2.0M |
| 1 Jul 2015 | G. Bordeaux B | G. Bordeaux | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2014 | AS Cherbourg | G. Bordeaux B | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2013 | SM Caen B | AS Cherbourg | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2012 | SM Caen U19 | SM Caen B | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2011 | SM Caen U17 | SM Caen U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2009 | SM Caen Jugend | SM Caen U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.