Pepe Castaño
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Pepe Castaño's performance-implied value at EUR 0.2M-0.4M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.2M-0.5M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.3M-0.7M. Confidence is low: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: not assigned
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
Insufficient sample (< 900 league minutes)
| Performance | Below average | 1.2th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 27.6 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €237k vs market €600k |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -18% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Small | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.43 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Very High | |
| Data confidence | Low |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1269 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 653 (28% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.00
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.07
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 1 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.42 (rank 16)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1138
- Opponent strength
- 1298
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €292k – €663k
Trajectory drivers: league level up (+40 Elo); relative output down 36% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -14% (IQR -28% to +0%).
Risk profile
Overall: Very High
- ▲Small sample: 653 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.43 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 25 (DEF)
- Relative output kept
- 55%–230%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 68%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | A.G.S Asteras Tripolis | Super League 1 | CB | 8 | 653 | 28% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 1298 | 1138 | 0.43 |
| 2024/25 | A.G.S Asteras Tripolis | Super League 1 | CB | 13 | 907 | 39% | 0 | 1 | 0.10 | 0.11 | 1257 | 1185 | 0.35 |
| 2023/24 | A.G.S Asteras Tripolis | Super League 1 | CB | 22 | 1940 | 83% | 0 | 2 | 0.09 | 0.08 | 1255 | 1212 | 0.42 |
| 2022/23 | A.G.S Asteras Tripolis | Super League 1 | CB | 23 | 2070 | 88% | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.06 | 1235 | 1198 | 0.37 |
| 2021/22 | A.G.S Asteras Tripolis | Super League 1 | CB | 20 | 1726 | 74% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 1263 | 1252 | 0.39 |
| 2020/21 | A.G.S Asteras Tripolis | Super League 1 | CB | 18 | 1575 | 67% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 1292 | 1283 | 0.39 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Kypello Elladas | A.G.S Asteras Tripolis | 4 | 315 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Kypello Elladas | A.G.S Asteras Tripolis | 4 | 235 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Kypello Elladas | A.G.S Asteras Tripolis | 2 | 124 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Kypello Elladas | A.G.S Asteras Tripolis | 1 | 120 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2018/19 | Copa Del Rey | RCD Espanyol Barcelona | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Purrington Scottish Premiership · 2023 | 27 | €450k | €400k | flat |
| Ivan Milicevic Super League 1 · 2024 | 26 | €600k | €600k | flat |
| Daniel Adejo Super League 1 · 2018 | 29 | €400k | €300k | fell |
| Ismaïla N'Diaye Jupiler Pro League · 2014 | 26 | €600k | €500k | flat |
| Nikola Lekovic Super League 1 · 2018 | 29 | €400k | €200k | fell |
| Stratos Valios Super League 1 · 2016 | 27 | €250k | €250k | flat |
| Aristidis Soiledis Super League 1 · 2018 | 27 | €350k | €550k | rose |
| David Keltjens Scottish Premiership · 2024 | 29 | €400k | €250k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 Aug 2020 | Villarreal CF B | Asteras Tripoli | Free / loan | €100k |
| 1 Jul 2018 | FC Villarreal C | Villarreal CF B | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2017 | Villarreal U19 | FC Villarreal C | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 21 Jul 2015 | Cádiz CF B | Villarreal U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2014 | Cádiz U19 | Cádiz CF B | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.