Sory Kaba

31 yrs · Striker · Guinea
Oud-Heverlee Leuven · Jupiler Pro League · Foot: right · Height: 191 cm
Risk: ModerateConfidence: MediumSample: MediumDevelopment: LowContract: Data unavailable
Market value
€1.0M
Updated 6 days ago
Estimated acquisition
€266k – €1.4M
Estimated · 20–80% range
Model value
€439k – €2.3M
Performance-implied · estimated
Projected (24m)
€268k – €810k
Resale range · estimated
Potential value gap
-€911k – €2.0M
Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€266k – €1.4M
Model value (performance-implied)€439k – €2.3M
Projected value (24 months)€268k – €810k
Dashed line: current market value (€1.0M). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates Sory Kaba's performance-implied value at EUR 0.4M-2.3M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.3M-1.4M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.3M-0.8M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.23x the positional average in the league (1126 minutes, league coefficient 0.65). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Acquisition note: Contract end date unavailable: range widened by 15% each side.

Bargain Index: 20

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

PerformanceBelow average28.9th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral)
AgeUnfavorable30.9 years
Acquisition costFavorableest. €642k vs market €1.0M
Expected appreciationVery low-51% over ~2 years (model)
Value gapSmallweak predictor on its own
DevelopmentLow
League translationModerateleague coefficient 0.65
Tactical fitNot evaluatedRequires event/role data not available from the current free source.
RiskModerate
Data confidenceMedium

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €3.0M

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes
1126 (42% of available)
Goals + assists / 90
0.56
Context-adjusted G+A / 90
0.62
xG, xA, progression
Data unavailable
Defensive actions
Data unavailable
Performance percentile
29 (Below average)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength
0.65 (rank 6)
Team strength (Elo)
1329
Opponent strength
1353
Possession, role
Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development
Low
Trajectory
insufficient
Breakout probability
Age > 23
Resale range (24m)
€268k – €810k

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -57% (IQR -73% to -41%).

Risk profile

Overall: Moderate

  • ⚠Limited sample: 1126 league minutes last season.
  • ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
  • ⚠Age 31: resale value typically declines.
  • ⓘContract end date unavailable (or stale in source).
  • ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Historical movers
78 (ATT)
Relative output kept
72%–126%
Held a regular role (900+ min)
60%
Confidence
Medium

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

SeasonClubLeaguePosAppsMinMin shareGAG+A/90Adj. G+A/90Opp. EloTeam EloLeague str.
2025/26Oud-Heverlee LeuvenJupiler Pro LeagueST21112642%610.560.62135313290.65
2023/24UD Las PalmasLaligaST1771921%110.250.66149813441.00
2023/24FC MidtjyllandSuperligaST41367%000.000.34117414490.48
2022/23FC MidtjyllandSuperligaST16104653%240.520.41127813680.47
2021/22Oud-Heverlee LeuvenJupiler Pro LeagueST26177558%1020.610.62135912460.49
2020/21FC MidtjyllandSuperligaST18122962%830.810.46129014500.43
2019/20FC MidtjyllandSuperligaST20139660%530.520.34128515000.41
2018/19Dijon FCOLigue 1ST92277%000.000.56144813220.82

Cups & continental competitions

SeasonCompetitionClubAppsMinGAAvg opp. Elo
2025/26Jupiler Pro League Europe Play OffsOud-Heverlee Leuven9469011385
2023/24Copa Del ReyUD Las Palmas325610—
2023/24Uefa Conference League QualifyingFC Midtjylland4161111362
2022/23Uefa Europa LeagueFC Midtjylland5275101505
2022/23Uefa Champions League QualifyingFC Midtjylland4189011606
2022/23Oddset PokalenFC Midtjylland213510—
2020/21Uefa Champions LeagueFC Midtjylland6463011723
2020/21Uefa Champions League QualifyingFC Midtjylland4332111492
2020/21Oddset PokalenFC Midtjylland527820—
2019/20Uefa Europa League QualifyingFC Midtjylland2172101505
2019/20Oddset PokalenFC Midtjylland12000—

Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)AgeValue then~2y laterOutcome
André Luis
Liga Portugal · 2024
30€1.5M€1.0Mfell
Ahmet Ilhan Özek
Super Lig · 2018
30€550k€150kfell
Cícero
Liga Portugal · 2015
29€1.2M€300kfell
Bruno Moreira
Liga Portugal · 2018
31€700k€400kfell
Dever Orgill
Super Lig · 2019
29€1.3M€575kfell
Mykhaylo Kopolovets
Premier Liga · 2013
29€600k€400kfell
Andrey Kozlov
Premier Liga · 2019
30€750k€300kfell
Ermin Zec
Super Lig · 2017
29€1.2M€300kfell

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

DateFromToFeeMV at time
8 Sept 2025UD Las PalmasOH LeuvenFree / loan€1.0M
30 Jun 2025Elche CFUD Las PalmasFree / loan€1.0M
30 Aug 2024UD Las PalmasElche CFFree / loan€1.5M
17 Aug 2023MidtjyllandUD Las Palmas€1.5M€2.8M
30 Jun 2023CardiffMidtjyllandFree / loan€2.8M
31 Jan 2023MidtjyllandCardiffFree / loan€2.5M
30 Jun 2022OH LeuvenMidtjyllandFree / loan€2.5M
31 Aug 2021MidtjyllandOH LeuvenFree / loan€3.0M
5 Jul 2019DijonMidtjylland€3.0M€2.0M
31 Jan 2019Elche CFDijon€4.0M€2.0M
31 Jul 2017Elche IlicitanoElche CFUnknownData unavailable
29 Jan 2016Alcobendas CFElche IlicitanoFree / loanData unavailable

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.