Arnaut Danjuma
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Arnaut Danjuma's performance-implied value at EUR 2.8M-8.4M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.9M-2.9M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 1.0M-3.1M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.88x the positional average in the league (1627 minutes, league coefficient 0.95). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 44
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Above average | 63.2th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 29.4 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €1.8M vs market €3.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -43% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.95 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1627 (48% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.28
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.36
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 63 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.95 (rank 2)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1497
- Opponent strength
- 1499
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €990k – €3.1M
Trajectory drivers: changed club; team strength up (+68 Elo); relative output up 29% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -35% (IQR -66% to -19%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⚠Limited sample: 1627 league minutes last season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Valencia CF | Laliga | LW | 30 | 1627 | 48% | 3 | 2 | 0.28 | 0.36 | 1499 | 1496 | 0.95 |
| 2024/25 | Girona FC | Laliga | LW | 25 | 1335 | 39% | 2 | 0 | 0.13 | 0.26 | 1521 | 1403 | 0.95 |
| 2024/25 | Villarreal CF | Laliga | ST | 3 | 203 | 6% | 2 | 0 | 0.89 | 0.56 | 1547 | 1597 | 0.95 |
| 2023/24 | Everton FC | Premier League | LW | 14 | 589 | 17% | 1 | 0 | 0.15 | 0.39 | 1573 | 1514 | 1.14 |
| 2022/23 | Villarreal CF | Laliga | ST | 10 | 476 | 14% | 2 | 0 | 0.38 | 0.37 | 1499 | 1581 | 0.98 |
| 2022/23 | Tottenham Hotspur | Premier League | LW | 9 | 163 | 5% | 1 | 0 | 0.55 | 0.40 | 1563 | 1606 | 1.23 |
| 2021/22 | Villarreal CF | Laliga | LW | 23 | 1477 | 43% | 10 | 3 | 0.79 | 0.50 | 1530 | 1661 | 1.05 |
| 2019/20 | AFC Bournemouth | Premier League | LW | 14 | 628 | 18% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.34 | 1648 | 1415 | 1.14 |
| 2019/20 | Club Brugge KV | Jupiler Pro League | LW | 1 | 87 | 3% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.25 | 1276 | 1578 | 0.63 |
| 2018/19 | Club Brugge KV | Jupiler Pro League | LM | 12 | 894 | 33% | 4 | 3 | 0.70 | 0.30 | 1328 | 1546 | 0.65 |
| 2016/17 | NEC Nijmegen | Eredivisie | RW | 12 | 580 | 19% | 1 | 0 | 0.16 | 0.38 | 1335 | 1223 | 0.54 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Copa Del Rey | Valencia CF | 4 | 187 | 1 | 1 | — |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Champions League | Girona FC | 7 | 385 | 1 | 2 | 1663 |
| 2024/25 | Copa Del Rey | Girona FC | 2 | 129 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Fa Cup | Everton FC | 2 | 92 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Copa Del Rey | Villarreal CF | 2 | 101 | 2 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Fa Cup | Tottenham Hotspur | 2 | 27 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Champions League | Tottenham Hotspur | 1 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 1610 |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Champions League | Villarreal CF | 11 | 908 | 6 | 1 | 1728 |
| 2018/19 | Uefa Champions League | Club Brugge KV | 2 | 166 | 1 | 0 | 1703 |
| 2018/19 | Volkswagen Supercup | Club Brugge KV | 1 | 90 | 0 | 1 | 1408 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steven Fletcher Premier League · 2016 | 29 | €3.0M | €3.0M | flat |
| Vladimir Bystrov Premier Liga · 2014 | 30 | €4.5M | €800k | fell |
| Patrick Ebert Premier Liga · 2015 | 28 | €2.5M | €1.5M | fell |
| Obafemi Martins Laliga · 2013 | 29 | €3.5M | €2.5M | fell |
| Mike Hanke Bundesliga · 2013 | 30 | €2.5M | €1.0M | fell |
| Munas Dabbur Bundesliga · 2022 | 30 | €4.0M | €3.0M | fell |
| Stanislav Sestak Super Lig · 2013 | 31 | €3.2M | €700k | fell |
| David Nugent Premier League · 2015 | 30 | €2.0M | €3.0M | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Aug 2025 | Villarreal | Valencia | Free / loan | €4.0M |
| 30 Jun 2025 | Girona | Villarreal | Free / loan | €4.0M |
| 30 Aug 2024 | Villarreal | Girona | Free / loan | €13.0M |
| 30 Jun 2024 | Everton | Villarreal | Free / loan | €13.0M |
| 23 Jul 2023 | Villarreal | Everton | Free / loan | €25.0M |
| 30 Jun 2023 | Tottenham | Villarreal | Free / loan | €25.0M |
| 25 Jan 2023 | Villarreal | Tottenham | Free / loan | €35.0M |
| 19 Aug 2021 | Bournemouth | Villarreal | €23.5M | €15.0M |
| 1 Aug 2019 | Club Brugge | Bournemouth | €16.5M | €12.0M |
| 1 Jul 2018 | NEC Nijmegen | Club Brugge | €2.8M | €1.5M |
| 1 Jul 2016 | PSV U19 | NEC Nijmegen | Free / loan | €25k |
| 1 Jul 2014 | PSV U17 | PSV U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2013 | PSV Yth. | PSV U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2008 | TOP Oss Youth | PSV Yth. | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.