Domagoj Bradarić

26 yrs · Left-back (also LM) · Croatia
Hellas Verona · Serie A · Foot: left · Height: 178 cm
Risk: LowConfidence: MediumSample: HighDevelopment: LowContract: until 30 Jun 2028
Market value
€1.5M
Updated 7 days ago
Estimated acquisition
€583k – €1.8M
Estimated · 20–80% range
Model value
€1.8M – €7.2M
Performance-implied · estimated
Projected (24m)
€679k – €1.8M
Resale range · estimated
Potential value gap
€13k – €6.6M
Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€583k – €1.8M
Model value (performance-implied)€1.8M – €7.2M
Projected value (24 months)€679k – €1.8M
Dashed line: current market value (€1.5M). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates Domagoj Bradarić's performance-implied value at EUR 1.8M-7.2M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.6M-1.8M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.7M-1.8M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.76x the positional average in the league (1971 minutes, league coefficient 0.93). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Bargain Index: 67

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

PerformanceAverage52.4th pct among MID peers (age-neutral)
AgeNeutral26.6 years
Acquisition costFavorableest. €1.1M vs market €1.5M
Expected appreciationLow-18% over ~2 years (model)
Value gapVery largeweak predictor on its own
DevelopmentLow
League translationBig-five leagueleague coefficient 0.93
Tactical fitNot evaluatedRequires event/role data not available from the current free source.
RiskLow
Data confidenceMedium

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €7.0M

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes
1971 (58% of available)
Goals + assists / 90
0.05
Context-adjusted G+A / 90
0.17
xG, xA, progression
Data unavailable
Defensive actions
Data unavailable
Performance percentile
52 (Average)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength
0.93 (rank 4)
Team strength (Elo)
1269
Opponent strength
1505
Possession, role
Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development
Low
Trajectory
stable
Breakout probability
Age > 23
Resale range (24m)
€679k – €1.8M

Trajectory drivers: team strength down (-97 Elo).

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -50% (IQR -71% to -31%).

Risk profile

Overall: Low

  • ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Already playing in a big-five league.

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

SeasonClubLeaguePosAppsMinMin shareGAG+A/90Adj. G+A/90Opp. EloTeam EloLeague str.
2025/26Hellas VeronaSerie ALM29197158%010.050.17150512690.93
2024/25Hellas VeronaSerie ALM28194457%100.050.13150213660.99
2023/24US Salernitana 1919Serie ALM34275180%030.100.19148012550.98
2022/23US Salernitana 1919Serie ALM31225466%030.120.21149013790.94
2021/22LOSC LilleLigue 1LB1540712%000.000.08144315400.86
2020/21LOSC LilleLigue 1LB26125737%120.210.14139616100.75
2019/20LOSC LilleLigue 1LB18142056%010.060.09141215160.82

Cups & continental competitions

SeasonCompetitionClubAppsMinGAAvg opp. Elo
2025/26Italy CupHellas Verona18110—
2024/25Italy CupUS Salernitana 191911600—
2023/24Italy CupUS Salernitana 1919322500—
2021/22Uefa Champions LeagueLOSC Lille113001805
2021/22Trophee Des ChampionsLOSC Lille15001727
2020/21Uefa Europa LeagueLOSC Lille7514011587
2019/20Uefa Champions LeagueLOSC Lille3270001674
2019/20Uefa Europa League QualifyingHNK Hajduk Split161001319

Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)AgeValue then~2y laterOutcome
Matthias Bader
Bundesliga · 2024
27€1.8M€1.8Mflat
Jordan Marié
Ligue 1 · 2019
28€1.5M€800kfell
Andrea Luci
Serie A · 2014
29€1.5M€700kfell
Riccardo Improta
Serie A · 2021
28€1.5M€1.0Mfell
Dimitri Bisoli
Serie A · 2020
26€2.8M€2.2Mfell
Diallo Guidileye
Ligue 1 · 2017
28€1.3M€200kfell
Arkadiusz Reca
Serie A · 2023
28€3.0M€1.0Mfell
Ondrej Petrak
Bundesliga · 2019
27€1.5M€300kfell

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

DateFromToFeeMV at time
3 Aug 2025SalernitanaHellas Verona€750k€4.0M
30 Jun 2025Hellas VeronaSalernitanaFree / loan€4.0M
30 Aug 2024SalernitanaHellas VeronaFree / loan€5.0M
15 Jul 2022LilleSalernitana€5.0M€3.5M
19 Jul 2019Hajduk SplitLille€6.5M€1.0M
15 Oct 2018Hajduk Split IIHajduk SplitUnknownData unavailable
23 Jan 2017Hajduk U19Hajduk Split IIUnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2016Hajduk U17Hajduk U19UnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2014Hajduk Yth.Hajduk U17UnknownData unavailable

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.