Justin Lonwijk
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Justin Lonwijk's performance-implied value at EUR 0.3M-0.5M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.2M-0.6M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.5M-1.2M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.14x the positional average in the league (905 minutes, league coefficient 0.43). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: 96
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 9.2th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 26.5 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €279k vs market €800k |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | -6% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.43 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 905 (30% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.40
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.46
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 9 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.43 (rank 15)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1175
- Opponent strength
- 1319
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €511k – €1.2M
Trajectory drivers: changed club; role change CM -> AM; relative output up 31% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -18% (IQR -62% to +12%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ⚠Limited sample: 905 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.43 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 53 (MID)
- Relative output kept
- 76%–148%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 68%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Fortuna Sittardia Combinatie | Eredivisie | AM | 15 | 905 | 30% | 4 | 0 | 0.40 | 0.46 | 1319 | 1175 | 0.43 |
| 2024/25 | Viborg FF | Superliga | CM | 14 | 661 | 33% | 1 | 0 | 0.14 | 0.19 | 1310 | 1222 | 0.38 |
| 2024/25 | Dynamo Kyiv | Premier Liga | CM | 2 | 46 | 2% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.11 | 1160 | 1406 | 0.28 |
| 2023/24 | Fortuna Sittardia Combinatie | Eredivisie | RW | 15 | 1034 | 34% | 3 | 3 | 0.52 | 0.61 | 1357 | 1190 | 0.48 |
| 2023/24 | RSC Anderlecht | Jupiler Pro League | CM | 3 | 39 | 1% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.20 | 1432 | 1516 | 0.63 |
| 2022/23 | Dynamo Kyiv | Premier Liga | CM | 18 | 928 | 34% | 1 | 1 | 0.19 | 0.15 | 1241 | 1433 | 0.38 |
| 2022/23 | Viborg FF | Superliga | RW | 9 | 638 | 32% | 2 | 1 | 0.42 | 0.41 | 1270 | 1327 | 0.47 |
| 2021/22 | Viborg FF | Superliga | CM | 20 | 1523 | 77% | 2 | 3 | 0.30 | 0.35 | 1302 | 1234 | 0.45 |
| 2019/20 | FC Utrecht | Eredivisie | ST | 1 | 38 | 2% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.48 | 1369 | 1418 | 0.62 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Knvb Beker | Fortuna Sittardia Combinatie | 2 | 138 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Oddset Pokalen | Viborg FF | 6 | 206 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Champions League Qualifying | Dynamo Kyiv | 4 | 46 | 0 | 0 | 1473 |
| 2023/24 | Knvb Beker | Fortuna Sittardia Combinatie | 1 | 76 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | Viborg FF | 6 | 346 | 0 | 1 | 1373 |
| 2021/22 | Oddset Pokalen | Viborg FF | 1 | 109 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2019/20 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | FC Utrecht | 2 | 136 | 0 | 0 | 1311 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joseph Attamah Super Lig · 2020 | 26 | €950k | €1.5M | rose |
| Lebogang Phiri Super Lig · 2022 | 28 | €600k | €150k | fell |
| Endri Cekici Super Lig · 2024 | 28 | €1.3M | €1.3M | flat |
| Mehdi Boudjemaa Super Lig · 2024 | 26 | €550k | €550k | flat |
| Artur Galoyan Premier Liga · 2024 | 25 | €900k | €400k | fell |
| Dimitrios Anakoglou Super League 1 · 2016 | 25 | €450k | €300k | fell |
| Kubilay Sönmez Super Lig · 2021 | 27 | €900k | €125k | fell |
| Clint Leemans Superliga · 2022 | 27 | €400k | €700k | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Jun 2026 | Fortuna Sittard | Dynamo Kyiv | Free / loan | €800k |
| 7 Aug 2025 | Dynamo Kyiv | Fortuna Sittard | Free / loan | €750k |
| 30 Jun 2025 | Viborg FF | Dynamo Kyiv | Free / loan | €750k |
| 31 Aug 2024 | Dynamo Kyiv | Viborg FF | Free / loan | €1.0M |
| 30 Jun 2024 | Fortuna Sittard | Dynamo Kyiv | Free / loan | €1.0M |
| 19 Jan 2024 | Dynamo Kyiv | Fortuna Sittard | Free / loan | €800k |
| 18 Jan 2024 | RSC Anderlecht | Dynamo Kyiv | Free / loan | €800k |
| 25 Jul 2023 | Dynamo Kyiv | RSC Anderlecht | Free / loan | €1.0M |
| 22 Sept 2022 | Viborg FF | Dynamo Kyiv | €1.5M | €700k |
| 1 Jul 2021 | Utrecht | Viborg FF | Unknown | €450k |
| 30 Jun 2021 | Viborg FF | Utrecht | Free / loan | €450k |
| 24 Jan 2021 | Utrecht | Viborg FF | Free / loan | €450k |
| 1 Jul 2019 | PSV U21 | Utrecht | Free / loan | €350k |
| 1 Jul 2018 | PSV U19 | PSV U21 | Unknown | €200k |
| 1 Jul 2016 | PSV U17 | PSV U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2015 | PSV Yth. | PSV U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2010 | Willem II/RKC Y. | PSV Yth. | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.