Luis Pérez
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Luis Pérez's performance-implied value at EUR 0.3M-0.8M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.2M-0.6M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.3M-0.6M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: 48
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 28.3th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 31.4 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €237k vs market €800k |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -51% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.4 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1657 (54% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.05
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.10
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 28 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.40 (rank 18)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1167
- Opponent strength
- 1276
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- stable
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €265k – €583k
Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 21 pts; changed club; league level down (-221 Elo); relative output up 65% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -27% (IQR -56% to -10%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ⚠Limited sample: 1657 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.40 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⚠Age 31: resale value typically declines.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 50 (DEF)
- Relative output kept
- 68%–191%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 54%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Gaziantep FK | Super Lig | RB | 24 | 1657 | 54% | 0 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.10 | 1276 | 1167 | 0.40 |
| 2024/25 | Real Valladolid CF | Laliga | RB | 30 | 2558 | 75% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 1520 | 1216 | 0.95 |
| 2022/23 | Real Valladolid CF | Laliga | RB | 18 | 1215 | 36% | 0 | 1 | 0.07 | 0.16 | 1573 | 1372 | 0.98 |
| 2020/21 | Real Valladolid CF | Laliga | RB | 22 | 1297 | 38% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 1512 | 1394 | 1.10 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024/25 | Copa Del Rey | Real Valladolid CF | 3 | 138 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Copa Del Rey | Real Valladolid CF | 2 | 77 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2020/21 | Copa Del Rey | Real Valladolid CF | 4 | 273 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Theodoros Tripotseris Super League 1 · 2017 | 31 | €350k | €150k | fell |
| Stelios Kitsiou Super Lig · 2024 | 31 | €550k | €550k | flat |
| Jack Baldwin Scottish Premiership · 2023 | 30 | €400k | €350k | flat |
| Dimitrios Kolovetsios Super Lig · 2022 | 31 | €475k | €350k | fell |
| Yevgeniy Tkachuk Premier Liga · 2022 | 31 | €400k | €150k | fell |
| Federico Álvarez Super League 1 · 2024 | 30 | €500k | €500k | flat |
| Nicolas Timmermans Jupiler Pro League · 2014 | 32 | €400k | €175k | fell |
| Nikola Zizic Super League 1 · 2019 | 31 | €350k | €250k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 Aug 2025 | Real Valladolid | Gaziantep FK | Free / loan | €1.4M |
| 4 Aug 2020 | CD Tenerife | Real Valladolid | Free / loan | €650k |
| 21 Jul 2017 | Elche CF | CD Tenerife | Free / loan | €300k |
| 11 Jul 2016 | Real Jaén CF | Elche CF | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 11 Jul 2015 | Sevilla FC C | Real Jaén CF | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2014 | Sevilla FC U19 | Sevilla FC C | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.