
Joseph Aidoo
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Joseph Aidoo's performance-implied value at EUR 0.9M-3.0M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.3M-1.3M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.3M-0.9M. Confidence is low: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Contract end date unavailable: range widened by 15% each side.
Bargain Index: not assigned
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
Insufficient sample (< 900 league minutes)
| Performance | Above average | 59.4th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 30.8 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €686k vs market €1.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -24% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.95 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Low |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1269 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 639 (19% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.00
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.04
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 59 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.95 (rank 2)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1498
- Opponent strength
- 1416
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €341k – €940k
Trajectory drivers: changed club; team strength up (+282 Elo); relative output down 43% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -55% (IQR -66% to -44%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ▲Small sample: 639 league minutes last season.
- ⚠Age 31: resale value typically declines.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘContract end date unavailable (or stale in source).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Celta de Vigo | Laliga | CB | 8 | 639 | 19% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 1416 | 1498 | 0.95 |
| 2024/25 | Real Valladolid CF | Laliga | CB | 8 | 582 | 17% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 1535 | 1216 | 0.95 |
| 2024/25 | Celta de Vigo | Laliga | CB | 1 | 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 1384 | 1476 | 0.95 |
| 2023/24 | Celta de Vigo | Laliga | CB | 6 | 406 | 12% | 0 | 1 | 0.22 | 0.15 | 1466 | 1449 | 1.00 |
| 2022/23 | Celta de Vigo | Laliga | CB | 35 | 3121 | 91% | 3 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.09 | 1498 | 1441 | 0.98 |
| 2021/22 | Celta de Vigo | Laliga | CB | 32 | 2640 | 77% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 1531 | 1499 | 1.05 |
| 2020/21 | Celta de Vigo | Laliga | CB | 25 | 1283 | 38% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 1523 | 1535 | 1.10 |
| 2019/20 | Celta de Vigo | Laliga | CB | 32 | 2500 | 73% | 0 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.06 | 1556 | 1479 | 1.16 |
| 2018/19 | KRC Genk | Jupiler Pro League | CB | 28 | 2437 | 90% | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.03 | 1343 | 1557 | 0.65 |
| 2017/18 | KRC Genk | Jupiler Pro League | CB | 22 | 1780 | 66% | 3 | 0 | 0.15 | 0.11 | 1354 | 1445 | 0.63 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Europa League | Celta de Vigo | 2 | 135 | 0 | 0 | 1541 |
| 2025/26 | Copa Del Rey | Celta de Vigo | 2 | 101 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Copa Del Rey | Celta de Vigo | 2 | 161 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Copa Del Rey | Celta de Vigo | 2 | 210 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2020/21 | Copa Del Rey | Celta de Vigo | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2019/20 | Copa Del Rey | Celta de Vigo | 1 | 120 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2018/19 | Uefa Europa League | KRC Genk | 5 | 450 | 1 | 0 | 1500 |
| 2018/19 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | KRC Genk | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1448 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Martín Montoya Laliga · 2023 | 32 | €1.2M | €450k | fell |
| Havard Nordtveit Bundesliga · 2021 | 31 | €1.5M | €600k | fell |
| Debatik Curri Super Lig · 2013 | 30 | €800k | €425k | fell |
| David Rozehnal Ligue 1 · 2013 | 33 | €1.0M | €500k | fell |
| Mensur Mujdza Bundesliga · 2015 | 31 | €1.0M | €250k | fell |
| Adam Masina Serie A · 2024 | 30 | €1.5M | €1.0M | fell |
| Jean-Pascal Mignot Ligue 1 · 2013 | 32 | €1.3M | €250k | fell |
| Kevin Vázquez Laliga · 2024 | 31 | €800k | €800k | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Jun 2025 | Real Valladolid | Celta de Vigo | Free / loan | €1.2M |
| 30 Jan 2025 | Celta de Vigo | Real Valladolid | Free / loan | €2.0M |
| 11 Jul 2019 | Genk | Celta de Vigo | €8.0M | €4.0M |
| 24 Jul 2017 | Hammarby | Genk | €1.3M | €500k |
| 1 Jan 2016 | Inter Allies | Hammarby | Unknown | €75k |
| 1 Dec 2015 | Hammarby | Inter Allies | Free / loan | €75k |
| 5 Aug 2015 | Inter Allies | Hammarby | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.