Joseph Aidoo

31 yrs · Centre-back · Ghana
Celta de Vigo · Laliga · Foot: right · Height: 181 cm
Risk: HighConfidence: LowSample: LowDevelopment: LowContract: Data unavailable
Market value
€1.0M
Updated today
Estimated acquisition
€259k – €1.3M
Estimated · 20–80% range
Model value
€894k – €3.0M
Performance-implied · estimated
Projected (24m)
€341k – €940k
Resale range · estimated
Potential value gap
-€376k – €2.7M
Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€259k – €1.3M
Model value (performance-implied)€894k – €3.0M
Projected value (24 months)€341k – €940k
Dashed line: current market value (€1.0M). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates Joseph Aidoo's performance-implied value at EUR 0.9M-3.0M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.3M-1.3M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.3M-0.9M. Confidence is low: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Acquisition note: Contract end date unavailable: range widened by 15% each side.

Bargain Index: not assigned

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

Insufficient sample (< 900 league minutes)

PerformanceAbove average59.4th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral)
AgeUnfavorable30.8 years
Acquisition costFavorableest. €686k vs market €1.0M
Expected appreciationLow-24% over ~2 years (model)
Value gapVery largeweak predictor on its own
DevelopmentLow
League translationBig-five leagueleague coefficient 0.95
Tactical fitNot evaluatedRequires event/role data not available from the current free source.
RiskHigh
Data confidenceLow

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €8.0M

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 1269 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes
639 (19% of available)
Goals + assists / 90
0.00
Context-adjusted G+A / 90
0.04
xG, xA, progression
Data unavailable
Defensive actions
Data unavailable
Performance percentile
59 (Above average)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength
0.95 (rank 2)
Team strength (Elo)
1498
Opponent strength
1416
Possession, role
Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development
Low
Trajectory
declining
Breakout probability
Age > 23
Resale range (24m)
€341k – €940k

Trajectory drivers: changed club; team strength up (+282 Elo); relative output down 43% vs positional peers.

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -55% (IQR -66% to -44%).

Risk profile

Overall: High

  • ▲Small sample: 639 league minutes last season.
  • ⚠Age 31: resale value typically declines.
  • ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
  • ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
  • ⓘContract end date unavailable (or stale in source).
  • ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Already playing in a big-five league.

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

SeasonClubLeaguePosAppsMinMin shareGAG+A/90Adj. G+A/90Opp. EloTeam EloLeague str.
2025/26Celta de VigoLaligaCB863919%000.000.04141614980.95
2024/25Real Valladolid CFLaligaCB858217%000.000.07153512160.95
2024/25Celta de VigoLaligaCB110%000.000.06138414760.95
2023/24Celta de VigoLaligaCB640612%010.220.15146614491.00
2022/23Celta de VigoLaligaCB35312191%300.090.09149814410.98
2021/22Celta de VigoLaligaCB32264077%000.000.02153114991.05
2020/21Celta de VigoLaligaCB25128338%000.000.03152315351.10
2019/20Celta de VigoLaligaCB32250073%010.040.06155614791.16
2018/19KRC GenkJupiler Pro LeagueCB28243790%100.040.03134315570.65
2017/18KRC GenkJupiler Pro LeagueCB22178066%300.150.11135414450.63

Cups & continental competitions

SeasonCompetitionClubAppsMinGAAvg opp. Elo
2025/26Uefa Europa LeagueCelta de Vigo2135001541
2025/26Copa Del ReyCelta de Vigo210100—
2024/25Copa Del ReyCelta de Vigo216100—
2022/23Copa Del ReyCelta de Vigo221010—
2020/21Copa Del ReyCelta de Vigo218000—
2019/20Copa Del ReyCelta de Vigo112000—
2018/19Uefa Europa LeagueKRC Genk5450101500
2018/19Uefa Europa League QualifyingKRC Genk190001448

Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)AgeValue then~2y laterOutcome
Martín Montoya
Laliga · 2023
32€1.2M€450kfell
Havard Nordtveit
Bundesliga · 2021
31€1.5M€600kfell
Debatik Curri
Super Lig · 2013
30€800k€425kfell
David Rozehnal
Ligue 1 · 2013
33€1.0M€500kfell
Mensur Mujdza
Bundesliga · 2015
31€1.0M€250kfell
Adam Masina
Serie A · 2024
30€1.5M€1.0Mfell
Jean-Pascal Mignot
Ligue 1 · 2013
32€1.3M€250kfell
Kevin Vázquez
Laliga · 2024
31€800k€800kflat

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

DateFromToFeeMV at time
30 Jun 2025Real ValladolidCelta de VigoFree / loan€1.2M
30 Jan 2025Celta de VigoReal ValladolidFree / loan€2.0M
11 Jul 2019GenkCelta de Vigo€8.0M€4.0M
24 Jul 2017HammarbyGenk€1.3M€500k
1 Jan 2016Inter AlliesHammarbyUnknown€75k
1 Dec 2015HammarbyInter AlliesFree / loan€75k
5 Aug 2015Inter AlliesHammarbyFree / loanData unavailable

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.