Jay-Roy Grot
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Jay-Roy Grot's performance-implied value at EUR 0.5M-1.1M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.2M-0.7M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.4M-0.9M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.30x the positional average in the league (1621 minutes, league coefficient 0.47). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: 94
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 15.6th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 28.3 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €299k vs market €750k |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -12% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.47 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1621 (82% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.56
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.66
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 16 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.47 (rank 12)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1215
- Opponent strength
- 1272
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €378k – €945k
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -39% (IQR -42% to +5%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ⚠Limited sample: 1621 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.47 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 20 (ATT)
- Relative output kept
- 78%–121%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 65%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Odense Boldklub | Superliga | ST | 21 | 1621 | 82% | 7 | 3 | 0.56 | 0.66 | 1272 | 1215 | 0.47 |
| 2022/23 | Viborg FF | Superliga | ST | 17 | 1441 | 73% | 9 | 3 | 0.75 | 0.65 | 1285 | 1327 | 0.47 |
| 2021/22 | Viborg FF | Superliga | ST | 16 | 970 | 49% | 2 | 0 | 0.19 | 0.46 | 1292 | 1234 | 0.45 |
| 2019/20 | Vitesse Arnhem | Eredivisie | LW | 22 | 845 | 36% | 2 | 1 | 0.32 | 0.30 | 1353 | 1393 | 0.62 |
| 2018/19 | VVV-Venlo | Eredivisie | LW | 33 | 1812 | 59% | 6 | 3 | 0.45 | 0.49 | 1383 | 1261 | 0.61 |
| 2016/17 | NEC Nijmegen | Eredivisie | ST | 20 | 1354 | 44% | 5 | 0 | 0.33 | 0.46 | 1336 | 1223 | 0.54 |
| 2015/16 | NEC Nijmegen | Eredivisie | ST | 10 | 272 | 9% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.46 | 1336 | 1273 | 0.58 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Oddset Pokalen | Odense Boldklub | 1 | 62 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | Viborg FF | 5 | 347 | 0 | 0 | 1398 |
| 2022/23 | Oddset Pokalen | Viborg FF | 1 | 64 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Oddset Pokalen | Viborg FF | 1 | 59 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2019/20 | Knvb Beker | Vitesse Arnhem | 3 | 140 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2018/19 | Knvb Beker | VVV-Venlo | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Watt Scottish Premiership · 2022 | 29 | €800k | €400k | fell |
| Michalis Manias Super League 1 · 2017 | 27 | €800k | €500k | fell |
| Christos Aravidis Super League 1 · 2014 | 27 | €800k | €1.0M | rose |
| David Torres Super League 1 · 2014 | 28 | €500k | €300k | fell |
| Georgios Pamlidis Super League 1 · 2021 | 28 | €600k | €350k | fell |
| Vitaliy Balashov Premier Liga · 2019 | 28 | €600k | €350k | fell |
| Rasmus Festersen Superliga · 2015 | 29 | €500k | €500k | flat |
| Junior Kabananga Jupiler Pro League · 2015 | 26 | €1.0M | €1.2M | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 Mar 2025 | Without Club | Odense BK | Unknown | €400k |
| 1 Feb 2025 | Kashiwa Reysol | Without Club | Unknown | €400k |
| 2 Feb 2023 | Viborg FF | Kashiwa Reysol | €1.8M | €1.0M |
| 6 Jul 2021 | VfL Osnabrück | Viborg FF | Free / loan | €400k |
| 1 Feb 2021 | Leeds | VfL Osnabrück | Free / loan | €800k |
| 30 Jun 2020 | Vitesse | Leeds | Free / loan | €800k |
| 1 Jul 2019 | Leeds | Vitesse | Free / loan | €1.3M |
| 30 Jun 2019 | VVV-Venlo | Leeds | Free / loan | €1.3M |
| 5 Jul 2018 | Leeds | VVV-Venlo | Free / loan | €1.3M |
| 24 Aug 2017 | NEC Nijmegen | Leeds | €1.6M | €750k |
| 1 Jul 2015 | NEC U19 | NEC Nijmegen | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2014 | NEC U17 | NEC U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2013 | NEC Youth | NEC U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2008 | ESA Youth | NEC Youth | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.