Andrey Mostovoy
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Andrey Mostovoy's performance-implied value at EUR 3.4M-9.8M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 1.0M-2.8M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 1.3M-3.5M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.23x the positional average in the league (717 minutes, league coefficient 0.56). Confidence is low: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: not assigned
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
Insufficient sample (< 900 league minutes)
| Performance | Above average | 63th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 28.7 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €1.3M vs market €3.5M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -42% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.56 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Very High | |
| Data confidence | Low |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 901 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 717 (27% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 1.13
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.50
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 63 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.56 (rank 10)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1597
- Opponent strength
- 1320
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €1.3M – €3.5M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 25 pts.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -32% (IQR -72% to +4%).
Risk profile
Overall: Very High
- ▲Small sample: 717 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.56 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠League level estimated mainly from squad values (few matches vs other leagues).
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 20 (ATT)
- Relative output kept
- 76%–104%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 50%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | AO FK Zenit Sankt-Peterburg | Premier Liga | LW | 22 | 717 | 27% | 6 | 3 | 1.13 | 0.50 | 1320 | 1597 | 0.56 |
| 2024/25 | AO FK Zenit Sankt-Peterburg | Premier Liga | LW | 26 | 1387 | 51% | 9 | 4 | 0.84 | 0.44 | 1275 | 1558 | 0.55 |
| 2023/24 | AO FK Zenit Sankt-Peterburg | Premier Liga | LW | 21 | 1008 | 37% | 3 | 1 | 0.36 | 0.27 | 1312 | 1491 | 0.49 |
| 2022/23 | AO FK Zenit Sankt-Peterburg | Premier Liga | LW | 29 | 1737 | 64% | 8 | 5 | 0.67 | 0.31 | 1296 | 1582 | 0.53 |
| 2021/22 | AO FK Zenit Sankt-Peterburg | Premier Liga | LW | 28 | 985 | 36% | 5 | 2 | 0.64 | 0.36 | 1337 | 1530 | 0.52 |
| 2020/21 | AO FK Zenit Sankt-Peterburg | Premier Liga | LW | 26 | 971 | 36% | 6 | 3 | 0.83 | 0.38 | 1307 | 1544 | 0.55 |
| 2019/20 | FK Sochi | Premier Liga | LW | 25 | 2080 | 77% | 6 | 5 | 0.48 | 0.56 | 1394 | 1318 | 0.63 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Russian Cup | AO FK Zenit Sankt-Peterburg | 10 | 657 | 1 | 3 | — |
| 2024/25 | Russian Cup | AO FK Zenit Sankt-Peterburg | 9 | 517 | 2 | 1 | — |
| 2024/25 | Russian Super Cup | AO FK Zenit Sankt-Peterburg | 1 | 61 | 0 | 0 | 1405 |
| 2023/24 | Russian Cup | AO FK Zenit Sankt-Peterburg | 8 | 399 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2023/24 | Russian Super Cup | AO FK Zenit Sankt-Peterburg | 1 | 27 | 0 | 0 | 1447 |
| 2022/23 | Russian Cup | AO FK Zenit Sankt-Peterburg | 7 | 209 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Russian Super Cup | AO FK Zenit Sankt-Peterburg | 1 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 1359 |
| 2021/22 | Russian Cup | AO FK Zenit Sankt-Peterburg | 2 | 166 | 2 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Champions League | AO FK Zenit Sankt-Peterburg | 5 | 151 | 0 | 0 | 1664 |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Europa League | AO FK Zenit Sankt-Peterburg | 2 | 49 | 0 | 0 | 1588 |
| 2021/22 | Russian Super Cup | AO FK Zenit Sankt-Peterburg | 1 | 29 | 0 | 0 | 1457 |
| 2020/21 | Uefa Champions League | AO FK Zenit Sankt-Peterburg | 5 | 196 | 0 | 0 | 1597 |
| 2020/21 | Russian Cup | AO FK Zenit Sankt-Peterburg | 1 | 81 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2020/21 | Russian Super Cup | AO FK Zenit Sankt-Peterburg | 1 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 1462 |
| 2019/20 | Russian Cup | FK Sochi | 1 | 54 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Georgios Samaras Scottish Premiership · 2014 | 29 | €3.0M | €2.0M | fell |
| Lior Refaelov Jupiler Pro League · 2016 | 30 | €3.5M | €700k | fell |
| Bruma Liga Portugal · 2023 | 29 | €6.0M | €7.0M | flat |
| Oleg Shatov Premier Liga · 2020 | 30 | €4.0M | €1.2M | fell |
| Roman Zozulya Premier Liga · 2016 | 27 | €3.5M | €800k | fell |
| Dyego Sousa Liga Portugal · 2018 | 29 | €2.0M | €3.2M | rose |
| Wilson Eduardo Liga Portugal · 2018 | 28 | €4.0M | €4.0M | flat |
| Mehdi Carcela-González Jupiler Pro League · 2018 | 29 | €3.5M | €2.4M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 Jul 2020 | FK Sochi | Zenit S-Pb | Free / loan | €2.0M |
| 19 Jul 2019 | Zenit S-Pb | FK Sochi | Free / loan | €400k |
| 1 Jul 2019 | Zenit 2 S-Pb | Zenit S-Pb | Unknown | €400k |
| 21 Feb 2019 | Khimki | Zenit 2 S-Pb | €50k | €400k |
| 5 Jul 2016 | FK Dolgoprudnyi | Khimki | Unknown | €50k |
| 1 Feb 2016 | Loko Moscow II | FK Dolgoprudnyi | Unknown | €50k |
| 1 Jan 2015 | Ak. Loko U17 | Loko Moscow II | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jan 2012 | CSKA U17 | Ak. Loko U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.