Dmitriy Rybchinskiy

28 yrs · Right midfielder (also AM, LM) · Russia
FC Orenburg · Premier Liga · Foot: right · Height: 179 cm
Risk: HighConfidence: MediumSample: MediumDevelopment: LowContract: until 12 Jun 2027
Market value
€700k
Updated 6 days ago
Estimated acquisition
€171k – €484k
Estimated · 20–80% range
Model value
€456k – €767k
Performance-implied · estimated
Projected (24m)
€323k – €733k
Resale range · estimated
Potential value gap
-€29k – €595k
Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€171k – €484k
Model value (performance-implied)€456k – €767k
Projected value (24 months)€323k – €733k
Dashed line: current market value (€700k). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates Dmitriy Rybchinskiy's performance-implied value at EUR 0.5M-0.8M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.2M-0.5M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.3M-0.7M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.86x the positional average in the league (1167 minutes, league coefficient 0.56). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.

Bargain Index: 90

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

PerformanceBelow average13.7th pct among MID peers (age-neutral)
AgeNeutral27.9 years
Acquisition costVery favorableest. €228k vs market €700k
Expected appreciationLow-19% over ~2 years (model)
Value gapVery largeweak predictor on its own
DevelopmentLow
League translationModerateleague coefficient 0.56
Tactical fitNot evaluatedRequires event/role data not available from the current free source.
RiskHigh
Data confidenceMedium

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €2.8M

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes
1167 (43% of available)
Goals + assists / 90
0.15
Context-adjusted G+A / 90
0.34
xG, xA, progression
Data unavailable
Defensive actions
Data unavailable
Performance percentile
14 (Below average)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength
0.56 (rank 10)
Team strength (Elo)
1218
Opponent strength
1355
Possession, role
Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development
Low
Trajectory
stable
Breakout probability
Age > 23
Resale range (24m)
€323k – €733k

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -40% (IQR -61% to +9%).

Risk profile

Overall: High

  • ⚠Limited sample: 1167 league minutes last season.
  • ⚠League level coefficient 0.56 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
  • ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
  • ⚠League level estimated mainly from squad values (few matches vs other leagues).
  • ⚠Contract ends in 11 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
  • ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Historical movers
18 (MID)
Relative output kept
54%–153%
Held a regular role (900+ min)
56%
Confidence
Low

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

SeasonClubLeaguePosAppsMinMin shareGAG+A/90Adj. G+A/90Opp. EloTeam EloLeague str.
2025/26FC OrenburgPremier LigaAM19116743%020.150.35135512180.56
2024/25FC OrenburgPremier LigaAM25134450%120.200.36133012020.55
2023/24FK BaltikaPremier LigaRM1139415%110.460.46135711870.49
2023/24Футбольный клуб "Локомотив" МоскваPremier LigaRM833112%000.000.17134814160.49
2022/23FK Nizhny NovgorodPremier LigaAM26151456%210.180.24130112260.53
2021/22Футбольный клуб "Локомотив" МоскваPremier LigaLM2189533%020.200.22133213440.52
2020/21Футбольный клуб "Локомотив" МоскваPremier LigaRM26147555%220.240.20134714570.55
2019/20Футбольный клуб "Локомотив" МоскваPremier LigaLM72278%020.790.38135014620.63

Cups & continental competitions

SeasonCompetitionClubAppsMinGAAvg opp. Elo
2025/26Russian CupFC Orenburg426200—
2024/25Russian CupFC Orenburg647202—
2023/24Russian CupFK Baltika531300—
2023/24Russian CupФутбольный клуб "Локомотив" Москва525101—
2022/23Russian CupFK Nizhny Novgorod424800—
2021/22Uefa Europa LeagueФутбольный клуб "Локомотив" Москва4272001493
2021/22Russian Super CupФутбольный клуб "Локомотив" Москва130001544
2021/22Russian CupФутбольный клуб "Локомотив" Москва1900—
2020/21Russian CupФутбольный клуб "Локомотив" Москва434703—
2020/21Uefa Champions LeagueФутбольный клуб "Локомотив" Москва6152001860
2020/21Russian Super CupФутбольный клуб "Локомотив" Москва19001594
2019/20Russian CupФутбольный клуб "Локомотив" Москва18400—

Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)AgeValue then~2y laterOutcome
Jeffry Fortes
Eredivisie · 2017
28€400k€650krose
Mustafa Saymak
Eredivisie · 2022
29€500k€150kfell
Erik Bakker
Eredivisie · 2018
28€750k€475kfell
Mohammed Fellah
Superliga · 2016
27€700k€150kfell
Andrey Mendel
Premier Liga · 2024
29€500k€900krose
Breitner
Liga Portugal · 2016
27€500k€475kflat
Brice Dja Djedje
Super Lig · 2019
29€700k€400kfell
Ederson Tormena
Jupiler Pro League · 2013
27€700k€300kfell

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

DateFromToFeeMV at time
1 Jul 2024Loko MoscowOrenburgFree / loan€900k
30 Jun 2024BaltikaLoko MoscowFree / loan€900k
20 Feb 2024Loko MoscowBaltikaFree / loan€1.2M
30 Jun 2023Pari NNLoko MoscowFree / loan€1.5M
1 Jul 2022Loko MoscowPari NNFree / loan€2.0M
1 Jan 2020Loko-Kazanka M.Loko MoscowUnknown€200k
1 Jul 2017Loko Moscow IILoko-Kazanka M.Unknown€50k
1 Jan 2015Ak. Loko U17Loko Moscow IIUnknownData unavailable

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.