
Dmitriy Rybchinskiy
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Dmitriy Rybchinskiy's performance-implied value at EUR 0.5M-0.8M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.2M-0.5M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.3M-0.7M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.86x the positional average in the league (1167 minutes, league coefficient 0.56). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: 90
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 13.7th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 27.9 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €228k vs market €700k |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -19% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.56 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1167 (43% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.15
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.34
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 14 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.56 (rank 10)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1218
- Opponent strength
- 1355
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- stable
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €323k – €733k
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -40% (IQR -61% to +9%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ⚠Limited sample: 1167 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.56 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠League level estimated mainly from squad values (few matches vs other leagues).
- ⚠Contract ends in 11 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 18 (MID)
- Relative output kept
- 54%–153%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 56%
- Confidence
- Low
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | FC Orenburg | Premier Liga | AM | 19 | 1167 | 43% | 0 | 2 | 0.15 | 0.35 | 1355 | 1218 | 0.56 |
| 2024/25 | FC Orenburg | Premier Liga | AM | 25 | 1344 | 50% | 1 | 2 | 0.20 | 0.36 | 1330 | 1202 | 0.55 |
| 2023/24 | FK Baltika | Premier Liga | RM | 11 | 394 | 15% | 1 | 1 | 0.46 | 0.46 | 1357 | 1187 | 0.49 |
| 2023/24 | Футбольный клуб "Локомотив" Москва | Premier Liga | RM | 8 | 331 | 12% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.17 | 1348 | 1416 | 0.49 |
| 2022/23 | FK Nizhny Novgorod | Premier Liga | AM | 26 | 1514 | 56% | 2 | 1 | 0.18 | 0.24 | 1301 | 1226 | 0.53 |
| 2021/22 | Футбольный клуб "Локомотив" Москва | Premier Liga | LM | 21 | 895 | 33% | 0 | 2 | 0.20 | 0.22 | 1332 | 1344 | 0.52 |
| 2020/21 | Футбольный клуб "Локомотив" Москва | Premier Liga | RM | 26 | 1475 | 55% | 2 | 2 | 0.24 | 0.20 | 1347 | 1457 | 0.55 |
| 2019/20 | Футбольный клуб "Локомотив" Москва | Premier Liga | LM | 7 | 227 | 8% | 0 | 2 | 0.79 | 0.38 | 1350 | 1462 | 0.63 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Russian Cup | FC Orenburg | 4 | 262 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Russian Cup | FC Orenburg | 6 | 472 | 0 | 2 | — |
| 2023/24 | Russian Cup | FK Baltika | 5 | 313 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Russian Cup | Футбольный клуб "Локомотив" Москва | 5 | 251 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2022/23 | Russian Cup | FK Nizhny Novgorod | 4 | 248 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Europa League | Футбольный клуб "Локомотив" Москва | 4 | 272 | 0 | 0 | 1493 |
| 2021/22 | Russian Super Cup | Футбольный клуб "Локомотив" Москва | 1 | 30 | 0 | 0 | 1544 |
| 2021/22 | Russian Cup | Футбольный клуб "Локомотив" Москва | 1 | 9 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2020/21 | Russian Cup | Футбольный клуб "Локомотив" Москва | 4 | 347 | 0 | 3 | — |
| 2020/21 | Uefa Champions League | Футбольный клуб "Локомотив" Москва | 6 | 152 | 0 | 0 | 1860 |
| 2020/21 | Russian Super Cup | Футбольный клуб "Локомотив" Москва | 1 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 1594 |
| 2019/20 | Russian Cup | Футбольный клуб "Локомотив" Москва | 1 | 84 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeffry Fortes Eredivisie · 2017 | 28 | €400k | €650k | rose |
| Mustafa Saymak Eredivisie · 2022 | 29 | €500k | €150k | fell |
| Erik Bakker Eredivisie · 2018 | 28 | €750k | €475k | fell |
| Mohammed Fellah Superliga · 2016 | 27 | €700k | €150k | fell |
| Andrey Mendel Premier Liga · 2024 | 29 | €500k | €900k | rose |
| Breitner Liga Portugal · 2016 | 27 | €500k | €475k | flat |
| Brice Dja Djedje Super Lig · 2019 | 29 | €700k | €400k | fell |
| Ederson Tormena Jupiler Pro League · 2013 | 27 | €700k | €300k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2024 | Loko Moscow | Orenburg | Free / loan | €900k |
| 30 Jun 2024 | Baltika | Loko Moscow | Free / loan | €900k |
| 20 Feb 2024 | Loko Moscow | Baltika | Free / loan | €1.2M |
| 30 Jun 2023 | Pari NN | Loko Moscow | Free / loan | €1.5M |
| 1 Jul 2022 | Loko Moscow | Pari NN | Free / loan | €2.0M |
| 1 Jan 2020 | Loko-Kazanka M. | Loko Moscow | Unknown | €200k |
| 1 Jul 2017 | Loko Moscow II | Loko-Kazanka M. | Unknown | €50k |
| 1 Jan 2015 | Ak. Loko U17 | Loko Moscow II | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.