Mateo Cassierra
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Mateo Cassierra's performance-implied value at EUR 2.3M-8.9M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 3.7M-8.7M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 2.0M-5.9M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.79x the positional average in the league (538 minutes, league coefficient 0.56). Confidence is low: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: not assigned
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
Insufficient sample (< 900 league minutes)
| Performance | Above average | 64th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 29.2 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €5.6M vs market €8.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -58% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.56 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Very High | |
| Data confidence | Low |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 901 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 538 (20% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.84
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.40
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 64 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.56 (rank 7)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1597
- Opponent strength
- 1309
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €2.0M – €5.9M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 48 pts.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -59% (IQR -66% to -42%).
Risk profile
Overall: Very High
- ▲Small sample: 538 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.56 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠League level estimated mainly from squad values (few matches vs other leagues).
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 20 (ATT)
- Relative output kept
- 76%–104%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 50%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | AO FK Zenit Sankt-Peterburg | Premier Liga | ST | 12 | 538 | 20% | 4 | 1 | 0.84 | 0.40 | 1309 | 1597 | 0.56 |
| 2024/25 | AO FK Zenit Sankt-Peterburg | Premier Liga | ST | 30 | 1846 | 68% | 8 | 4 | 0.59 | 0.36 | 1295 | 1558 | 0.55 |
| 2023/24 | AO FK Zenit Sankt-Peterburg | Premier Liga | ST | 28 | 2310 | 86% | 21 | 5 | 1.01 | 0.55 | 1317 | 1491 | 0.49 |
| 2022/23 | AO FK Zenit Sankt-Peterburg | Premier Liga | ST | 26 | 1481 | 55% | 2 | 6 | 0.49 | 0.27 | 1304 | 1582 | 0.53 |
| 2021/22 | FK Sochi | Premier Liga | ST | 22 | 1860 | 69% | 14 | 6 | 0.97 | 0.68 | 1343 | 1441 | 0.52 |
| 2021/22 | B SAD | Liga Portugal | ST | 2 | 172 | 6% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.64 | 1449 | 1246 | 0.67 |
| 2020/21 | B SAD | Liga Portugal | ST | 32 | 1996 | 65% | 10 | 1 | 0.50 | 0.63 | 1361 | 1292 | 0.61 |
| 2019/20 | B SAD | Liga Portugal | ST | 29 | 1795 | 59% | 4 | 0 | 0.20 | 0.39 | 1374 | 1243 | 0.59 |
| 2018/19 | FC Groningen | Eredivisie | ST | 10 | 554 | 18% | 1 | 0 | 0.16 | 0.39 | 1365 | 1356 | 0.61 |
| 2017/18 | Ajax Amsterdam | Eredivisie | ST | 4 | 69 | 2% | 1 | 0 | 1.30 | 0.31 | 1303 | 1627 | 0.59 |
| 2016/17 | Ajax Amsterdam | Eredivisie | ST | 17 | 336 | 11% | 2 | 0 | 0.54 | 0.29 | 1330 | 1627 | 0.54 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Russian Cup | AO FK Zenit Sankt-Peterburg | 4 | 233 | 3 | 1 | — |
| 2024/25 | Russian Cup | AO FK Zenit Sankt-Peterburg | 8 | 453 | 4 | 1 | — |
| 2024/25 | Russian Super Cup | AO FK Zenit Sankt-Peterburg | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1405 |
| 2023/24 | Russian Cup | AO FK Zenit Sankt-Peterburg | 9 | 397 | 3 | 3 | — |
| 2023/24 | Russian Super Cup | AO FK Zenit Sankt-Peterburg | 1 | 77 | 0 | 0 | 1447 |
| 2022/23 | Russian Cup | AO FK Zenit Sankt-Peterburg | 7 | 456 | 3 | 2 | — |
| 2022/23 | Russian Super Cup | AO FK Zenit Sankt-Peterburg | 1 | 21 | 1 | 0 | 1359 |
| 2021/22 | Russian Cup | FK Sochi | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2017/18 | Knvb Beker | Ajax Amsterdam | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2016/17 | Knvb Beker | Ajax Amsterdam | 3 | 270 | 2 | 1 | — |
| 2016/17 | Uefa Europa League | Ajax Amsterdam | 5 | 221 | 0 | 0 | 1421 |
| 2016/17 | Uefa Champions League Qualifying | Ajax Amsterdam | 4 | 183 | 0 | 0 | 1419 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wilson Eduardo Liga Portugal · 2020 | 30 | €4.0M | €1.3M | fell |
| Benjamin Verbic Premier Liga · 2021 | 28 | €5.5M | €3.0M | fell |
| Diego Capel Liga Portugal · 2015 | 27 | €3.5M | €800k | fell |
| Kevin Mirallas Super League 1 · 2018 | 31 | €7.0M | €2.4M | fell |
| Eduardo Salvio Liga Portugal · 2019 | 29 | €10.0M | €7.0M | fell |
| Fredy Montero Liga Portugal · 2016 | 29 | €7.2M | €3.0M | fell |
| Michy Batshuayi Super Lig · 2023 | 30 | €10.0M | €4.0M | fell |
| Lasse Schöne Eredivisie · 2016 | 30 | €3.0M | €3.0M | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 Jan 2026 | Zenit S-Pb | Atlético-MG | €7.0M | €9.0M |
| 1 Jul 2022 | FK Sochi | Zenit S-Pb | €4.5M | €4.5M |
| 26 Aug 2021 | B SAD | FK Sochi | €1.2M | €2.0M |
| 2 Sept 2019 | Ajax | B SAD | Unknown | €1.8M |
| 30 Jun 2019 | Racing Club | Ajax | Free / loan | €2.5M |
| 28 Jan 2019 | Ajax | Racing Club | Free / loan | €2.5M |
| 31 Dec 2018 | FC Groningen | Ajax | Free / loan | €2.5M |
| 1 Jul 2018 | Ajax | FC Groningen | Free / loan | €3.0M |
| 1 Jul 2016 | Deportivo Cali | Ajax | €5.5M | €650k |
| 1 Jan 2015 | Dep. Cali U20 | Deportivo Cali | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.