Valeriy Bondarenko

32 yrs · Centre-back · Ukraine
Kolos Kovalivka · Premier Liga · Foot: right · Height: 194 cm
Risk: Very HighConfidence: LowSample: LowDevelopment: LowContract: Data unavailable
Market value
€250k
Updated 7 days ago
Estimated acquisition
€54k – €287k
Estimated · 20–80% range
Model value
€138k – €315k
Performance-implied · estimated
Projected (24m)
€72k – €245k
Resale range · estimated
Potential value gap
-€149k – €261k
Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€54k – €287k
Model value (performance-implied)€138k – €315k
Projected value (24 months)€72k – €245k
Dashed line: current market value (€250k). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates Valeriy Bondarenko's performance-implied value at EUR 0.1M-0.3M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.1M-0.3M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.1M-0.2M. Confidence is low: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Acquisition note: Contract end date unavailable: range widened by 15% each side.

Bargain Index: not assigned

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

Insufficient sample (< 900 league minutes)

PerformanceBelow average18.5th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral)
AgeUnfavorable32.4 years
Acquisition costVery favorableest. €140k vs market €250k
Expected appreciationLow-23% over ~2 years (model)
Value gapLargeweak predictor on its own
DevelopmentLow
League translationUncertainleague coefficient 0.25
Tactical fitNot evaluatedRequires event/role data not available from the current free source.
RiskVery High
Data confidenceLow

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €1.0M

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 1269 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes
850 (32% of available)
Goals + assists / 90
0.00
Context-adjusted G+A / 90
0.03
xG, xA, progression
Data unavailable
Defensive actions
Data unavailable
Performance percentile
19 (Below average)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength
0.25 (rank 30)
Team strength (Elo)
1200
Opponent strength
1160
Possession, role
Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development
Low
Trajectory
declining
Breakout probability
Age > 23
Resale range (24m)
€72k – €245k

Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 47 pts; relative output up 45% vs positional peers.

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -35% (IQR -60% to +0%).

Risk profile

Overall: Very High

  • ▲Small sample: 850 league minutes last season.
  • ▲League level coefficient 0.25 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
  • ▲Age 32: resale value typically declines.
  • ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
  • ⚠Projection range wider than for most evaluated players.
  • ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
  • ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
  • ⓘContract end date unavailable (or stale in source).
  • ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Historical movers
11 (DEF)
Relative output kept
108%–176%
Held a regular role (900+ min)
82%
Confidence
Low

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

SeasonClubLeaguePosAppsMinMin shareGAG+A/90Adj. G+A/90Opp. EloTeam EloLeague str.
2025/26Kolos KovalivkaPremier LigaCB1485031%000.000.03116012000.25
2024/25Kolos KovalivkaPremier LigaCB24211578%000.000.02119211860.28
2023/24Kolos KovalivkaPremier LigaCB26234087%100.040.05124311430.34
2022/23FC OleksandriyaPremier LigaCB15100737%000.000.03126512840.38
2021/22Vorskla PoltavaPremier LigaCB427717%000.000.06131013190.45
2020/21FC OleksandriyaPremier LigaCB18148163%300.180.14129012850.49
2019/20Vitória Guimarães SCLiga PortugalCB760720%000.000.04141814180.59
2018/19FC OleksandriyaPremier LigaCB18162082%100.060.06134413840.57
2017/18FC OleksandriyaPremier LigaCB17153077%100.060.08136513180.62
2016/17FC OleksandriyaPremier LigaCB748017%000.000.06146612930.56

Cups & continental competitions

SeasonCompetitionClubAppsMinGAAvg opp. Elo
2025/26Ukrainian CupKolos Kovalivka19000—
2024/25Ukrainian CupKolos Kovalivka112000—
2023/24Ukrainian CupKolos Kovalivka112000—
2021/22Uefa Conference League QualifyingVorskla Poltava2210001369
2020/21Ukrainian CupFC Oleksandriya333020—
2019/20Uefa Europa League QualifyingVitória Guimarães SC2180001489
2019/20Uefa Europa LeagueVitória Guimarães SC190001493
2017/18Uefa Europa League QualifyingFC Oleksandriya3190001441

Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)AgeValue then~2y laterOutcome
Michal Pazdan
Super Lig · 2021
34€350k€150kfell
Júnior Morais
Super Lig · 2021
35€200k€250krose
Sergiy Yavorskyi
Premier Liga · 2023
34€300k€300kflat
Sergiy Chenbay
Premier Liga · 2023
31€300k€300kflat
Konstantinos Giannoulis
Super League 1 · 2022
35€250k€50kfell
Miguel Lopes
Super Lig · 2021
35€100k€50kfell
Roman Miroshnyk
Premier Liga · 2023
29€350k€300kflat
Branko Ostojic
Super League 1 · 2015
31€300k€100kfell

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

DateFromToFeeMV at time
1 Jul 2024Shakhtar D.Kolos KovalivkaFree / loan€600k
30 Jun 2024Kolos KovalivkaShakhtar D.Free / loan€600k
1 Jul 2023Shakhtar D.Kolos KovalivkaFree / loan€500k
30 Jun 2023FC OleksandriyaShakhtar D.Free / loan€500k
10 Jan 2022Shakhtar D.FC OleksandriyaFree / loan€500k
31 Dec 2021Vorskla PoltavaShakhtar D.Free / loan€500k
8 Jul 2021Shakhtar D.Vorskla PoltavaFree / loan€600k
30 Jun 2021FC OleksandriyaShakhtar D.Free / loan€600k
6 Oct 2020Shakhtar D.FC OleksandriyaFree / loan€600k
31 Jul 2020Vit. GuimarãesShakhtar D.Free / loan€800k
1 Jul 2019Shakhtar D.Vit. GuimarãesFree / loan€1.0M
23 Jan 2019FC OleksandriyaShakhtar D.€600k€700k
2 Feb 2017Skala StryiFC OleksandriyaFree / loanData unavailable
27 Mar 2015Without ClubSkala StryiUnknownData unavailable
1 Jan 2015Torpedo KutaisiWithout ClubUnknownData unavailable
18 Aug 2014Arsenal Kyiv IITorpedo KutaisiUnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2013Arsenal K. U17Arsenal Kyiv IIUnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2008Obolon Kyiv U17Arsenal K. U17UnknownData unavailable

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.