Rodrigo Abascal
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Rodrigo Abascal's performance-implied value at EUR 0.4M-1.1M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.1M-0.3M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.1M-0.3M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: 76
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Average | 44.7th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 32.5 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €155k vs market €400k |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -36% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.58 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2272 (74% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.12
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.09
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 45 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.58 (rank 9)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1361
- Opponent strength
- 1296
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €140k – €326k
Trajectory drivers: changed club; team strength up (+225 Elo); relative output up 240% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -37% (IQR -50% to -33%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ▲Age 32: resale value typically declines.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.58 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 66 (DEF)
- Relative output kept
- 57%–168%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 76%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Vitória Guimarães SC | Liga Portugal | CB | 27 | 2272 | 74% | 1 | 2 | 0.12 | 0.09 | 1296 | 1361 | 0.58 |
| 2024/25 | Boavista FC | Liga Portugal | CB | 29 | 2600 | 85% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 1346 | 1137 | 0.51 |
| 2023/24 | Boavista FC | Liga Portugal | CB | 29 | 2482 | 81% | 2 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.08 | 1378 | 1230 | 0.58 |
| 2022/23 | Boavista FC | Liga Portugal | CB | 27 | 2300 | 75% | 0 | 2 | 0.08 | 0.09 | 1383 | 1351 | 0.68 |
| 2021/22 | Boavista FC | Liga Portugal | CB | 28 | 2480 | 81% | 1 | 2 | 0.11 | 0.12 | 1365 | 1357 | 0.67 |
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mtiliga Superliga · 2013 | 32 | €600k | €300k | fell |
| Niels Lodberg Superliga · 2013 | 33 | €450k | €300k | fell |
| Bart Vriends Eredivisie · 2024 | 33 | €400k | €250k | fell |
| Armend Dallku Premier Liga · 2016 | 33 | €700k | €700k | flat |
| Freek Heerkens Eredivisie · 2020 | 31 | €475k | €300k | fell |
| Vitaliy Vernydub Premier Liga · 2019 | 32 | €600k | €400k | fell |
| Dmytro Gryshko Premier Liga · 2017 | 32 | €500k | €200k | fell |
| Mustapha Oussalah Jupiler Pro League · 2013 | 31 | €700k | €350k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 Jul 2025 | Boavista | Vit. Guimarães | Free / loan | €700k |
| 27 Jul 2021 | Peñarol | Boavista | Free / loan | €300k |
| 8 Jul 2019 | CA Fénix | Peñarol | Free / loan | €300k |
| 31 Dec 2017 | Juventud | CA Fénix | Free / loan | €250k |
| 18 Aug 2017 | CA Fénix | Juventud | Free / loan | €250k |
| 1 Jan 2015 | CA Fénix U19 | CA Fénix | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.