Michael Schjönning-Larsen
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Michael Schjönning-Larsen's performance-implied value at EUR 0.4M-0.7M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.1M-0.3M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.2M-0.4M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: 97
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 9.4th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 25.4 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €122k vs market €350k |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | -1% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.31 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 932 (31% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.19
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.18
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 9 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.31 (rank 26)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1104
- Opponent strength
- 1211
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €236k – €423k
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -6% (IQR -18% to +0%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ▲League level coefficient 0.31 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠Limited sample: 932 league minutes last season.
- ⚠Contract ends in 11 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 16 (DEF)
- Relative output kept
- 90%–275%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 75%
- Confidence
- Low
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Kilmarnock FC | Scottish Premiership | LB | 13 | 932 | 31% | 2 | 0 | 0.19 | 0.18 | 1211 | 1104 | 0.31 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | FCI Levadia | 4 | 401 | 0 | 0 | 1292 |
| 2025/26 | Uefa Champions League Qualifying | FCI Levadia | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | 1386 |
| 2025/26 | Scottish Fa Cup | Kilmarnock FC | 1 | 45 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tiago Santana Premier Liga · 2024 | 26 | €500k | €500k | flat |
| Taras Sakiv Premier Liga · 2023 | 26 | €400k | €350k | flat |
| Konstantinos Provydakis Super League 1 · 2021 | 25 | €250k | €250k | flat |
| Kyriakos Mazoulouxis Super League 1 · 2022 | 25 | €350k | €350k | flat |
| Kyrylo Prokopchuk Premier Liga · 2024 | 26 | €200k | €200k | flat |
| Vasyl Gakman Premier Liga · 2024 | 24 | €300k | €175k | fell |
| Vladyslav Sydorenko Premier Liga · 2023 | 26 | €300k | €200k | fell |
| Ben Purrington Scottish Premiership · 2023 | 27 | €450k | €400k | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jan 2026 | FCI Levadia | Kilmarnock FC | Free / loan | €350k |
| 8 Feb 2023 | Kuressaare | FCI Levadia | Unknown | €125k |
| 1 Jan 2021 | FC Flora U21 | Kuressaare | Unknown | €25k |
| 31 Dec 2020 | Kuressaare | FC Flora U21 | Free / loan | €25k |
| 1 Jan 2020 | FC Flora U21 | Kuressaare | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2018 | Hellerup IK U19 | FC Flora U21 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jan 2017 | AB Youth | Hellerup IK U19 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.