Pablo Rosario
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Pablo Rosario's performance-implied value at EUR 3.0M-10.2M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 3.8M-8.5M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 2.3M-5.8M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.86x the positional average in the league (1391 minutes, league coefficient 0.58). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 7
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Above average | 74th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 29.5 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €5.6M vs market €8.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -57% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.58 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1391 (46% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.19
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.11
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 74 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.58 (rank 5)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1590
- Opponent strength
- 1259
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €2.3M – €5.8M
Trajectory drivers: changed club; team strength up (+68 Elo); league level down (-111 Elo); relative output down 23% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -45% (IQR -58% to -15%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠Limited sample: 1391 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.58 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 58 (MID)
- Relative output kept
- 72%–151%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 78%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | FC Porto | Liga Portugal | DM | 22 | 1364 | 45% | 2 | 1 | 0.20 | 0.11 | 1259 | 1594 | 0.58 |
| 2025/26 | OGC Nice | Ligue 1 | DM | 1 | 27 | 1% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.11 | 1400 | 1358 | 0.88 |
| 2024/25 | OGC Nice | Ligue 1 | DM | 29 | 1775 | 58% | 3 | 1 | 0.20 | 0.14 | 1446 | 1521 | 0.88 |
| 2023/24 | OGC Nice | Ligue 1 | DM | 30 | 2005 | 66% | 0 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.07 | 1479 | 1511 | 0.87 |
| 2022/23 | OGC Nice | Ligue 1 | DM | 31 | 1761 | 51% | 0 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.07 | 1452 | 1519 | 0.82 |
| 2021/22 | OGC Nice | Ligue 1 | DM | 36 | 2736 | 80% | 0 | 2 | 0.07 | 0.07 | 1416 | 1493 | 0.86 |
| 2020/21 | PSV Eindhoven | Eredivisie | DM | 29 | 2314 | 76% | 1 | 4 | 0.19 | 0.08 | 1349 | 1567 | 0.56 |
| 2019/20 | PSV Eindhoven | Eredivisie | DM | 26 | 2255 | 96% | 2 | 3 | 0.20 | 0.11 | 1363 | 1553 | 0.62 |
| 2018/19 | PSV Eindhoven | Eredivisie | DM | 32 | 2764 | 90% | 0 | 3 | 0.10 | 0.05 | 1335 | 1634 | 0.61 |
| 2017/18 | PSV Eindhoven | Eredivisie | CM | 14 | 356 | 12% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 1264 | 1636 | 0.59 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Europa League | FC Porto | 12 | 1012 | 0 | 0 | 1486 |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Europa League | OGC Nice | 5 | 431 | 1 | 0 | 1517 |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | OGC Nice | 2 | 42 | 0 | 0 | 1519 |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Champions League Qualifying | PSV Eindhoven | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1425 |
| 2020/21 | Uefa Europa League | PSV Eindhoven | 6 | 450 | 0 | 0 | 1535 |
| 2020/21 | Knvb Beker | PSV Eindhoven | 3 | 200 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2020/21 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | PSV Eindhoven | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | 1410 |
| 2019/20 | Uefa Europa League | PSV Eindhoven | 6 | 434 | 1 | 0 | 1533 |
| 2019/20 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | PSV Eindhoven | 4 | 360 | 0 | 0 | 1434 |
| 2019/20 | Knvb Beker | PSV Eindhoven | 2 | 210 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2019/20 | Uefa Champions League Qualifying | PSV Eindhoven | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | 1586 |
| 2019/20 | Johan Cruijff Schaal | PSV Eindhoven | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1746 |
| 2018/19 | Uefa Champions League | PSV Eindhoven | 6 | 532 | 1 | 1 | 1729 |
| 2018/19 | Uefa Champions League Qualifying | PSV Eindhoven | 2 | 164 | 0 | 0 | 1429 |
| 2018/19 | Johan Cruijff Schaal | PSV Eindhoven | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1530 |
| 2017/18 | Knvb Beker | PSV Eindhoven | 1 | 12 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Érick Gutiérrez Eredivisie · 2023 | 28 | €6.0M | €3.0M | fell |
| Miguel Veloso Premier Liga · 2015 | 29 | €8.0M | €4.0M | fell |
| André André Liga Portugal · 2017 | 28 | €6.5M | €4.0M | fell |
| Éder Balanta Jupiler Pro League · 2020 | 27 | €4.8M | €5.0M | flat |
| Ognjen Vukojevic Premier Liga · 2014 | 31 | €5.0M | €600k | fell |
| Diego Super Lig · 2015 | 30 | €5.0M | €4.5M | flat |
| Diego Souza Premier Liga · 2014 | 29 | €6.0M | €5.0M | flat |
| Miha Zajc Super Lig · 2023 | 29 | €6.0M | €1.5M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 Aug 2025 | Nice | Porto | €3.8M | €8.0M |
| 27 Jul 2021 | PSV | Nice | €6.0M | €6.0M |
| 1 Jul 2017 | PSV U21 | PSV | Unknown | €400k |
| 25 Jul 2016 | Almere City | PSV U21 | €165k | €200k |
| 1 Jul 2015 | Almere City U19 | Almere City | Unknown | €25k |
| 1 Jul 2014 | Ajax U17 | Almere City U19 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2013 | Ajax Youth | Ajax U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2010 | DWS Youth | Ajax Youth | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2009 | Feyenoord Youth | DWS Youth | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2008 | AVV Swift Yth. | Feyenoord Youth | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.