Carlens Arcus
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Carlens Arcus's performance-implied value at EUR 1.1M-2.5M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.5M-1.4M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.6M-1.4M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: 38
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Average | 50th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 30 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €603k vs market €1.8M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -55% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.88 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2045 (67% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.13
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.17
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 50 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.88 (rank 5)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1306
- Opponent strength
- 1456
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €575k – €1.4M
Trajectory drivers: relative output up 41% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -48% (IQR -59% to -27%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⚠Age 30: resale value typically declines.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Angers SCO | Ligue 1 | RB | 26 | 2045 | 67% | 0 | 3 | 0.13 | 0.17 | 1456 | 1306 | 0.88 |
| 2024/25 | Angers SCO | Ligue 1 | RB | 28 | 2055 | 67% | 0 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.11 | 1472 | 1291 | 0.88 |
| 2023/24 | Vitesse Arnhem | Eredivisie | RB | 30 | 2177 | 71% | 0 | 4 | 0.17 | 0.20 | 1367 | 1158 | 0.48 |
| 2022/23 | Vitesse Arnhem | Eredivisie | RB | 30 | 2523 | 82% | 1 | 3 | 0.14 | 0.14 | 1351 | 1342 | 0.58 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | World Cup | Haiti | 3 | 145 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Knvb Beker | Vitesse Arnhem | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Knvb Beker | Vitesse Arnhem | 1 | 120 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miguel Garcia Super Lig · 2013 | 30 | €1.8M | €600k | fell |
| Fabrizio Cacciatore Serie A · 2017 | 31 | €1.8M | €800k | fell |
| Kevin Van Den Kerkhof Ligue 1 · 2024 | 28 | €3.0M | €1.8M | fell |
| Milan Perendija Premier Liga · 2015 | 29 | €800k | €350k | fell |
| Luca Ceppitelli Serie A · 2019 | 30 | €2.5M | €2.0M | fell |
| Boukary Dramé Serie A · 2015 | 30 | €2.2M | €1.7M | fell |
| Mikkel Desler Ligue 1 · 2023 | 28 | €2.5M | €1.8M | fell |
| Haitam Aleesami Ligue 1 · 2020 | 29 | €1.2M | €400k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2024 | Vitesse | Angers SCO | Free / loan | €700k |
| 1 Jul 2022 | AJ Auxerre | Vitesse | Free / loan | €1.8M |
| 1 Jul 2018 | Cercle Brugge | AJ Auxerre | Unknown | €500k |
| 30 Jun 2018 | AJ Auxerre | Cercle Brugge | Free / loan | €500k |
| 31 Aug 2017 | Cercle Brugge | AJ Auxerre | Free / loan | €150k |
| 1 Jul 2017 | LOSC Lille B | Cercle Brugge | Free / loan | €150k |
| 1 Jul 2016 | Troyes | LOSC Lille B | Free / loan | €150k |
| 1 Jul 2015 | ESTAC Troyes B | Troyes | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jan 2015 | RC Haïtien | ESTAC Troyes B | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.