Jimmy Marín
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Jimmy Marín's performance-implied value at EUR 0.5M-0.8M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.3M-0.8M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.4M-0.7M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.69x the positional average in the league (1013 minutes, league coefficient 0.56). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 59
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 15.1th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 28.7 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €530k vs market €800k |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -28% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Small | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.56 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Very High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1013 (38% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.09
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.27
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 15 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.56 (rank 10)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1262
- Opponent strength
- 1391
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €352k – €740k
Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 21 pts; changed club; relative output down 31% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -25% (IQR -30% to -8%).
Risk profile
Overall: Very High
- ⚠Limited sample: 1013 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.56 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠League level estimated mainly from squad values (few matches vs other leagues).
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 20 (ATT)
- Relative output kept
- 76%–104%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 50%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | PFK Krylya Sovetov Samara | Premier Liga | RW | 21 | 1013 | 38% | 1 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.27 | 1391 | 1262 | 0.56 |
| 2024/25 | FC Orenburg | Premier Liga | RW | 23 | 1591 | 59% | 4 | 1 | 0.28 | 0.43 | 1306 | 1202 | 0.55 |
| 2023/24 | FC Orenburg | Premier Liga | RW | 27 | 1149 | 43% | 3 | 3 | 0.47 | 0.50 | 1330 | 1272 | 0.49 |
| 2022/23 | FC Orenburg | Premier Liga | LW | 25 | 1367 | 51% | 7 | 4 | 0.72 | 0.63 | 1315 | 1332 | 0.53 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Russian Cup | PFK Krylya Sovetov Samara | 5 | 295 | 1 | 2 | — |
| 2024/25 | Russian Cup | FC Orenburg | 3 | 91 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Russian Cup | FC Orenburg | 10 | 473 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Russian Cup | FC Orenburg | 1 | 90 | 0 | 1 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aboubakar Oumarou Jupiler Pro League · 2015 | 28 | €500k | €750k | rose |
| Ramón Cardozo Liga Portugal · 2015 | 29 | €800k | €600k | fell |
| Jorge Correa Liga Portugal · 2021 | 28 | €700k | €550k | fell |
| Vyacheslav Krotov Premier Liga · 2023 | 30 | €500k | €350k | fell |
| Sokol Cikalleshi Super Lig · 2019 | 29 | €500k | €900k | rose |
| André Claro Liga Portugal · 2018 | 27 | €500k | €375k | fell |
| Mustafa Durak Super Lig · 2016 | 28 | €1.5M | €125k | fell |
| Jarno Molenberghs Jupiler Pro League · 2016 | 27 | €500k | €350k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Jul 2025 | Orenburg | KS Samara | Free / loan | €600k |
| 2 Jul 2022 | Saprissa | Orenburg | €490k | €325k |
| 9 Jul 2020 | H. Beer Sheva | Saprissa | Free / loan | €300k |
| 8 Jul 2020 | FC Ashdod | H. Beer Sheva | Free / loan | €300k |
| 6 Feb 2020 | H. Beer Sheva | FC Ashdod | Free / loan | €400k |
| 1 Jul 2019 | Herediano | H. Beer Sheva | Unknown | €325k |
| 31 Dec 2016 | Belén FC | Herediano | Free / loan | €100k |
| 2 Jul 2016 | Herediano | Belén FC | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2016 | Gen. Saprissa | Herediano | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.