Robert Ivanov
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Robert Ivanov's performance-implied value at EUR 0.2M-0.4M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.1M-0.4M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.2M-0.5M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: 79
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 3.3th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 31.8 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €164k vs market €500k |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -33% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.43 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1386 (59% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.07
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.10
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 3 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.42 (rank 16)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1138
- Opponent strength
- 1234
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €227k – €461k
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +0% (IQR -5% to +0%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ⚠Limited sample: 1386 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.43 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⚠Age 32: resale value typically declines.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 25 (DEF)
- Relative output kept
- 55%–230%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 68%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | A.G.S Asteras Tripolis | Super League 1 | CB | 17 | 1386 | 59% | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.10 | 1234 | 1138 | 0.43 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Kypello Elladas | A.G.S Asteras Tripolis | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sidcley Super League 1 · 2024 | 31 | €700k | €700k | flat |
| Alim Öztürk Super Lig · 2024 | 32 | €450k | €450k | flat |
| Alpaslan Öztürk Super Lig · 2024 | 31 | €300k | €300k | flat |
| Seán Dillon Scottish Premiership · 2016 | 33 | €375k | €300k | fell |
| Steven Smith Scottish Premiership · 2017 | 32 | €350k | €350k | flat |
| Mads Greve Superliga · 2021 | 32 | €250k | €150k | fell |
| Yaw Amankwah Superliga · 2019 | 31 | €300k | €300k | flat |
| Ravil Netfullin Premier Liga · 2023 | 30 | €400k | €500k | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 Aug 2025 | E. Braunschweig | Asteras Aktor | Free / loan | €600k |
| 1 Jul 2023 | Warta Poznan | E. Braunschweig | Free / loan | €750k |
| 1 Sept 2020 | FC Honka | Warta Poznan | Unknown | €300k |
| 8 Mar 2016 | FC Viikingit | FC Honka | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jan 2015 | FC Myllypuro | FC Viikingit | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jan 2013 | LPS U19 | FC Myllypuro | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jan 2012 | PK-35 U19 | LPS U19 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.