Vincent Marchetti
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Vincent Marchetti's performance-implied value at EUR 1.2M-3.3M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.4M-1.1M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.6M-1.6M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.32x the positional average in the league (819 minutes, league coefficient 0.88). Confidence is low: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: not assigned
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
Insufficient sample (< 900 league minutes)
| Performance | Average | 50.7th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 29 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €512k vs market €1.5M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -29% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.88 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Low |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1164 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 819 (27% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.33
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.29
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 51 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.88 (rank 5)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1454
- Opponent strength
- 1422
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €587k – €1.6M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -55% (IQR -62% to -34%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ▲Small sample: 819 league minutes last season.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Paris FC | Ligue 1 | CM | 23 | 819 | 27% | 2 | 1 | 0.33 | 0.29 | 1422 | 1454 | 0.88 |
| 2022/23 | AC Ajaccio | Ligue 1 | CM | 31 | 2462 | 72% | 0 | 3 | 0.11 | 0.24 | 1447 | 1207 | 0.82 |
| 2016/17 | AS Nancy-Lorraine | Ligue 1 | CM | 17 | 975 | 29% | 0 | 1 | 0.09 | 0.20 | 1425 | 1325 | 0.88 |
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paolo De Ceglie Serie A · 2015 | 29 | €1.5M | €400k | fell |
| Alexander Farnerud Serie A · 2014 | 30 | €1.8M | €700k | fell |
| Dmitriy Torbinski Premier Liga · 2013 | 29 | €2.8M | €1.8M | fell |
| Evgeniy Shipitsin Premier Liga · 2013 | 28 | €2.5M | €1.0M | fell |
| Arnold Mvuemba Ligue 1 · 2013 | 28 | €3.0M | €1.5M | fell |
| Raphael Martinho Serie A · 2014 | 26 | €1.8M | €1.3M | fell |
| Nicolas Haas Serie A · 2023 | 27 | €2.0M | €700k | fell |
| Daniel Bessa Serie A · 2022 | 29 | €2.5M | €3.0M | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 Jan 2024 | AC Ajaccio | Paris FC | Unknown | €2.0M |
| 5 Oct 2020 | AS Nancy | AC Ajaccio | Free / loan | €400k |
| 16 Jul 2016 | AC Ajaccio | AS Nancy | €1.5M | €800k |
| 1 Jul 2015 | AC Ajaccio B | AC Ajaccio | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 5 Jul 2014 | Ajaccio U17 | AC Ajaccio B | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2012 | Ajaccio Yth. | Ajaccio U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Sept 2010 | GFC Ajaccio Jgd | Ajaccio Yth. | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.