Vladyslav Shapoval

31 yrs · Left-back (also CB, RB) · Ukraine
FC Kudrivka · Premier Liga · Foot: left · Height: 189 cm
Risk: Very HighConfidence: LowSample: LowDevelopment: LowContract: Data unavailable
Market value
€300k
Updated 6 days ago
Estimated acquisition
€69k – €318k
Estimated · 20–80% range
Model value
€133k – €254k
Performance-implied · estimated
Projected (24m)
€93k – €292k
Resale range · estimated
Potential value gap
-€185k – €185k
Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€69k – €318k
Model value (performance-implied)€133k – €254k
Projected value (24 months)€93k – €292k
Dashed line: current market value (€300k). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates Vladyslav Shapoval's performance-implied value at EUR 0.1M-0.3M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.1M-0.3M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.1M-0.3M. Confidence is low: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Acquisition note: Contract end date unavailable: range widened by 15% each side.

Bargain Index: not assigned

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

Insufficient sample (< 900 league minutes)

PerformanceBelow average0.4th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral)
AgeUnfavorable31.1 years
Acquisition costVery favorableest. €174k vs market €300k
Expected appreciationVery low-30% over ~2 years (model)
Value gapSmallweak predictor on its own
DevelopmentLow
League translationUncertainleague coefficient 0.25
Tactical fitNot evaluatedRequires event/role data not available from the current free source.
RiskVery High
Data confidenceLow

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €400k

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 1269 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes
614 (23% of available)
Goals + assists / 90
0.29
Context-adjusted G+A / 90
0.17
xG, xA, progression
Data unavailable
Defensive actions
Data unavailable
Performance percentile
0 (Below average)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength
0.25 (rank 30)
Team strength (Elo)
1042
Opponent strength
1147
Possession, role
Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development
Low
Trajectory
stable
Breakout probability
Age > 23
Resale range (24m)
€93k – €292k

Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 39 pts; changed club; role change LB -> CB; relative output up 289% vs positional peers.

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -34% (IQR -56% to -22%).

Risk profile

Overall: Very High

  • ▲Small sample: 614 league minutes last season.
  • ▲League level coefficient 0.25 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
  • ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
  • ⚠Age 31: resale value typically declines.
  • ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
  • ⓘContract end date unavailable (or stale in source).
  • ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Historical movers
11 (DEF)
Relative output kept
108%–176%
Held a regular role (900+ min)
82%
Confidence
Low

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

SeasonClubLeaguePosAppsMinMin shareGAG+A/90Adj. G+A/90Opp. EloTeam EloLeague str.
2025/26FC KudrivkaPremier LigaCB761423%200.290.17114710420.25
2024/25Livyi Bereg KyivPremier LigaLB21168062%000.000.08122510400.28
2023/24FK Polissya ZhytomyrPremier LigaLB31435%000.000.16132712650.34
2023/24Chornomorets OdesaPremier LigaRB2813%000.000.13113211130.34
2019/20SC Dnipro-1Premier LigaLB14102752%110.180.21133912540.54
2016/17Volyn LutskPremier LigaLB25203371%100.040.10134211570.56
2015/16Volyn LutskPremier LigaLB632314%000.000.11135512950.54

Cups & continental competitions

SeasonCompetitionClubAppsMinGAAvg opp. Elo
2025/26Ukrainian CupFC Kudrivka11300—
2025/26Ukrainian CupFC Chernigiv21200—
2023/24Ukrainian CupFK Polissya Zhytomyr221000—
2023/24Ukrainian CupChornomorets Odesa1400—
2019/20Ukrainian CupSC Dnipro-1218000—
2016/17Ukrainian CupVolyn Lutsk26500—

Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)AgeValue then~2y laterOutcome
Ricki Lamie
Scottish Premiership · 2024
31€325k€200kfell
Sean Kelly
Scottish Premiership · 2024
31€300k€125kfell
Sakib Aytac
Super Lig · 2021
30€225k€100kfell
Yevgeniy Tkachuk
Premier Liga · 2023
32€200k€150kfell
Antonis Dentakis
Super League 1 · 2023
28€200k€175kflat
Oguz Yilmaz
Super Lig · 2021
28€300k€100kfell
Igor Kurylo
Premier Liga · 2024
31€300k€300kflat
Stavros Vasilantonopoulos
Super League 1 · 2023
31€250k€175kfell

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

DateFromToFeeMV at time
1 Jul 2025Livyi BeregFC KudrivkaFree / loan€250k
17 Aug 2024ChornomoretsLivyi BeregFree / loan€200k
23 Feb 2024PolissyaChornomoretsFree / loan€300k
23 Jul 2021AgrobiznesPolissyaFree / loan€200k
31 Jan 2021Without ClubAgrobiznesUnknown€200k
29 Sept 2020Volyn LutskWithout ClubUnknown€300k
3 Sept 2020SC Dnipro-1Volyn LutskFree / loan€325k
4 Jul 2018Without ClubSC Dnipro-1Unknown€300k
1 Jan 2018Volyn LutskWithout ClubUnknown€300k
1 Jan 2016Volyn Lutsk IIVolyn LutskUnknownData unavailable
1 Nov 2012Volyn Lutsk U19Volyn Lutsk IIUnknownData unavailable
31 Aug 2012UnknownVolyn Lutsk U19Free / loanData unavailable
1 Jul 2012Polissya Dobr.UnknownFree / loanData unavailable
14 May 2012YunistPolissya Dobr.Free / loanData unavailable

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.