
Vladyslav Shapoval
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Vladyslav Shapoval's performance-implied value at EUR 0.1M-0.3M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.1M-0.3M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.1M-0.3M. Confidence is low: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Contract end date unavailable: range widened by 15% each side.
Bargain Index: not assigned
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
Insufficient sample (< 900 league minutes)
| Performance | Below average | 0.4th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 31.1 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €174k vs market €300k |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -30% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Small | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.25 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Very High | |
| Data confidence | Low |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1269 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 614 (23% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.29
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.17
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 0 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.25 (rank 30)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1042
- Opponent strength
- 1147
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- stable
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €93k – €292k
Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 39 pts; changed club; role change LB -> CB; relative output up 289% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -34% (IQR -56% to -22%).
Risk profile
Overall: Very High
- ▲Small sample: 614 league minutes last season.
- ▲League level coefficient 0.25 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Age 31: resale value typically declines.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⓘContract end date unavailable (or stale in source).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 11 (DEF)
- Relative output kept
- 108%–176%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 82%
- Confidence
- Low
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | FC Kudrivka | Premier Liga | CB | 7 | 614 | 23% | 2 | 0 | 0.29 | 0.17 | 1147 | 1042 | 0.25 |
| 2024/25 | Livyi Bereg Kyiv | Premier Liga | LB | 21 | 1680 | 62% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 1225 | 1040 | 0.28 |
| 2023/24 | FK Polissya Zhytomyr | Premier Liga | LB | 3 | 143 | 5% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.16 | 1327 | 1265 | 0.34 |
| 2023/24 | Chornomorets Odesa | Premier Liga | RB | 2 | 81 | 3% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.13 | 1132 | 1113 | 0.34 |
| 2019/20 | SC Dnipro-1 | Premier Liga | LB | 14 | 1027 | 52% | 1 | 1 | 0.18 | 0.21 | 1339 | 1254 | 0.54 |
| 2016/17 | Volyn Lutsk | Premier Liga | LB | 25 | 2033 | 71% | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.10 | 1342 | 1157 | 0.56 |
| 2015/16 | Volyn Lutsk | Premier Liga | LB | 6 | 323 | 14% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.11 | 1355 | 1295 | 0.54 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Ukrainian Cup | FC Kudrivka | 1 | 13 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2025/26 | Ukrainian Cup | FC Chernigiv | 2 | 12 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Ukrainian Cup | FK Polissya Zhytomyr | 2 | 210 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Ukrainian Cup | Chornomorets Odesa | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2019/20 | Ukrainian Cup | SC Dnipro-1 | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2016/17 | Ukrainian Cup | Volyn Lutsk | 2 | 65 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ricki Lamie Scottish Premiership · 2024 | 31 | €325k | €200k | fell |
| Sean Kelly Scottish Premiership · 2024 | 31 | €300k | €125k | fell |
| Sakib Aytac Super Lig · 2021 | 30 | €225k | €100k | fell |
| Yevgeniy Tkachuk Premier Liga · 2023 | 32 | €200k | €150k | fell |
| Antonis Dentakis Super League 1 · 2023 | 28 | €200k | €175k | flat |
| Oguz Yilmaz Super Lig · 2021 | 28 | €300k | €100k | fell |
| Igor Kurylo Premier Liga · 2024 | 31 | €300k | €300k | flat |
| Stavros Vasilantonopoulos Super League 1 · 2023 | 31 | €250k | €175k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2025 | Livyi Bereg | FC Kudrivka | Free / loan | €250k |
| 17 Aug 2024 | Chornomorets | Livyi Bereg | Free / loan | €200k |
| 23 Feb 2024 | Polissya | Chornomorets | Free / loan | €300k |
| 23 Jul 2021 | Agrobiznes | Polissya | Free / loan | €200k |
| 31 Jan 2021 | Without Club | Agrobiznes | Unknown | €200k |
| 29 Sept 2020 | Volyn Lutsk | Without Club | Unknown | €300k |
| 3 Sept 2020 | SC Dnipro-1 | Volyn Lutsk | Free / loan | €325k |
| 4 Jul 2018 | Without Club | SC Dnipro-1 | Unknown | €300k |
| 1 Jan 2018 | Volyn Lutsk | Without Club | Unknown | €300k |
| 1 Jan 2016 | Volyn Lutsk II | Volyn Lutsk | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Nov 2012 | Volyn Lutsk U19 | Volyn Lutsk II | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 31 Aug 2012 | Unknown | Volyn Lutsk U19 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2012 | Polissya Dobr. | Unknown | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 14 May 2012 | Yunist | Polissya Dobr. | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.