Oscar Buch
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Oscar Buch's performance-implied value at EUR 0.3M-0.6M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.1M-0.5M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.2M-0.4M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.15x the positional average in the league (1247 minutes, league coefficient 0.47). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Contract end date unavailable: range widened by 15% each side.
Bargain Index: 85
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 2.9th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 29.4 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €219k vs market €400k |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -19% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.47 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1247 (63% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.51
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.45
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 3 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.47 (rank 12)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1183
- Opponent strength
- 1246
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €247k – €419k
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -29% (IQR -38% to -12%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠Limited sample: 1247 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.47 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⓘContract end date unavailable (or stale in source).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 20 (ATT)
- Relative output kept
- 78%–121%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 65%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | FC Fredericia | Superliga | RW | 17 | 1247 | 63% | 6 | 1 | 0.51 | 0.45 | 1246 | 1183 | 0.47 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Oddset Pokalen | FC Fredericia | 3 | 212 | 3 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Stevenson Scottish Premiership · 2014 | 30 | €450k | €400k | flat |
| Denis Epstein Super League 1 · 2017 | 31 | €400k | €250k | fell |
| Kris Doolan Scottish Premiership · 2014 | 28 | €400k | €350k | flat |
| Marc Höcher Eredivisie · 2013 | 29 | €500k | €350k | fell |
| Pablo Mazza Super League 1 · 2017 | 30 | €750k | €750k | flat |
| Billy McKay Scottish Premiership · 2016 | 28 | €500k | €300k | fell |
| Emil Nielsen Superliga · 2021 | 28 | €350k | €250k | fell |
| Claudiu Bălan Super League 1 · 2023 | 29 | €500k | €300k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2026 | FC Fredericia | Without Club | Unknown | €400k |
| 1 Jul 2024 | Vendsyssel FF | FC Fredericia | Unknown | €200k |
| 31 Jan 2023 | HB Köge | Vendsyssel FF | Free / loan | €150k |
| 1 Jul 2021 | Hvidovre | HB Köge | Free / loan | €200k |
| 1 Jul 2019 | Brönshöj BK | Hvidovre | Free / loan | €50k |
| 1 Jul 2017 | FC Roskilde | Brönshöj BK | Free / loan | €50k |
| 30 Jun 2017 | Brönshöj BK | FC Roskilde | Free / loan | €50k |
| 31 Jan 2017 | FC Roskilde | Brönshöj BK | Free / loan | €50k |
| 31 Jan 2016 | FC Roskilde U19 | FC Roskilde | Unknown | €25k |
| 1 Jul 2014 | HB Köge Youth | FC Roskilde U19 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2013 | FCR Youth | HB Köge Youth | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.