Lance Duijvestijn
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Lance Duijvestijn's performance-implied value at EUR 0.3M-0.7M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.2M-0.8M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.4M-1.0M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.88x the positional average in the league (1952 minutes, league coefficient 0.43). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Contract end date unavailable: range widened by 15% each side.
Bargain Index: 89
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 10.3th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 27.5 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €433k vs market €800k |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -14% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Small | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.43 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1952 (64% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.23
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.44
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 10 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.43 (rank 15)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1188
- Opponent strength
- 1331
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €416k – €977k
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -18% (IQR -39% to +14%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.43 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⓘContract end date unavailable (or stale in source).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 53 (MID)
- Relative output kept
- 76%–148%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 68%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Fortuna Sittardia Combinatie | Eredivisie | AM | 15 | 1259 | 41% | 3 | 2 | 0.36 | 0.44 | 1331 | 1175 | 0.43 |
| 2025/26 | Sparta Rotterdam | Eredivisie | AM | 13 | 693 | 23% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.20 | 1274 | 1213 | 0.43 |
| 2023/24 | Excelsior Rotterdam | Eredivisie | AM | 14 | 1102 | 36% | 4 | 5 | 0.74 | 0.74 | 1348 | 1142 | 0.48 |
| 2023/24 | Almere City FC | Eredivisie | AM | 14 | 441 | 14% | 0 | 2 | 0.41 | 0.54 | 1390 | 1179 | 0.48 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Knvb Beker | Sparta Rotterdam | 2 | 99 | 1 | 1 | — |
| 2023/24 | Knvb Beker | Almere City FC | 2 | 119 | 1 | 3 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Halil Akbunar Super Lig · 2020 | 27 | €1.1M | €3.5M | rose |
| Alen Halilovic Eredivisie · 2024 | 28 | €1.3M | €400k | fell |
| Jon Toral Super League 1 · 2022 | 27 | €600k | €700k | flat |
| Jorman Campuzano Super Lig · 2023 | 27 | €1.5M | €1.7M | flat |
| Joseph Attamah Super Lig · 2022 | 28 | €1.5M | €500k | fell |
| Fabrício Baiano Super Lig · 2021 | 29 | €600k | €450k | fell |
| Gary Harkins Scottish Premiership · 2013 | 28 | €500k | €450k | flat |
| Mykyta Tatarkov Premier Liga · 2023 | 28 | €400k | €300k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Jun 2026 | Fortuna Sittard | Sparta R. | Free / loan | €800k |
| 16 Jan 2026 | Sparta R. | Fortuna Sittard | Free / loan | €800k |
| 1 Jul 2025 | Excelsior | Sparta R. | €600k | €850k |
| 1 Feb 2024 | Almere City | Excelsior | €200k | €500k |
| 1 Jul 2021 | Helmond Sport | Almere City | Unknown | €225k |
| 30 Jul 2020 | ADO U21 | Helmond Sport | Free / loan | €25k |
| 1 Jul 2019 | NEC U21 | ADO U21 | Free / loan | €25k |
| 1 Jul 2018 | ADO U19 | NEC U21 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2016 | ADO U17 | ADO U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2014 | ADO Youth | ADO U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2009 | SV VELO Youth | ADO Youth | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.