Kirill Zaika
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Kirill Zaika's performance-implied value at EUR 0.2M-0.4M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.1M-0.2M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.1M-0.3M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.76x the positional average in the league (1616 minutes, league coefficient 0.56). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: not assigned
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
Age above 33 (outside validated pool)
| Performance | Below average | 14.9th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 33.7 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €93k vs market €300k |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -35% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.56 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Very High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1616 (60% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.06
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.17
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 15 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.56 (rank 10)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1197
- Opponent strength
- 1350
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €126k – €286k
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -58% (IQR -68% to -46%).
Risk profile
Overall: Very High
- ▲Age 34: resale value typically declines.
- ⚠Limited sample: 1616 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.56 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠League level estimated mainly from squad values (few matches vs other leagues).
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 18 (MID)
- Relative output kept
- 54%–153%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 56%
- Confidence
- Low
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | FK Sochi | Premier Liga | RM | 26 | 1616 | 60% | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.17 | 1350 | 1197 | 0.56 |
| 2023/24 | FK Sochi | Premier Liga | RM | 27 | 1617 | 60% | 0 | 2 | 0.11 | 0.21 | 1339 | 1222 | 0.49 |
| 2022/23 | FK Sochi | Premier Liga | RM | 15 | 774 | 29% | 2 | 0 | 0.23 | 0.26 | 1298 | 1310 | 0.53 |
| 2021/22 | FK Sochi | Premier Liga | RM | 28 | 1664 | 62% | 1 | 3 | 0.22 | 0.21 | 1342 | 1441 | 0.52 |
| 2020/21 | FK Sochi | Premier Liga | RM | 23 | 1558 | 58% | 1 | 5 | 0.35 | 0.28 | 1327 | 1396 | 0.55 |
| 2019/20 | FK Sochi | Premier Liga | RB | 10 | 874 | 32% | 1 | 4 | 0.51 | 0.37 | 1432 | 1318 | 0.63 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Russian Cup | FK Sochi | 5 | 250 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Russian Cup | FK Sochi | 6 | 253 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Russian Cup | FK Sochi | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | FK Sochi | 4 | 189 | 0 | 0 | 1465 |
| 2020/21 | Russian Cup | FK Sochi | 3 | 216 | 0 | 1 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Milos Maric Jupiler Pro League · 2016 | 34 | €250k | €250k | flat |
| Nourdin Boukhari Eredivisie · 2013 | 33 | €300k | €200k | fell |
| Pedro Moreira Liga Portugal · 2022 | 33 | €200k | €100k | fell |
| Aleksandr Zotov Premier Liga · 2024 | 34 | €300k | €100k | fell |
| Oleg Aleynik Premier Liga · 2021 | 32 | €400k | €100k | fell |
| Michael Silberbauer Superliga · 2013 | 32 | €500k | €150k | fell |
| Aleksandar Radosavljevic Eredivisie · 2013 | 34 | €450k | €200k | fell |
| Martin Mikkelsen Superliga · 2018 | 32 | €250k | €100k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2018 | Khimki | FK Sochi | Free / loan | €400k |
| 1 Jul 2015 | Taganrog | Khimki | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jan 2011 | Rostov II | Taganrog | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 31 Dec 2010 | Taganrog | Rostov II | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Aug 2010 | Rostov II | Taganrog | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jan 2010 | Akademia Rostov | Rostov II | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.