Matheus Reis
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Matheus Reis's performance-implied value at EUR 0.8M-2.2M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.9M-2.3M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.6M-1.6M. Confidence is low: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: not assigned
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
Insufficient sample (< 900 league minutes)
| Performance | Average | 54.3th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 31.4 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €1.4M vs market €2.5M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -66% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Small | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.56 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Very High | |
| Data confidence | Low |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1269 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 828 (27% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.33
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.14
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 54 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.56 (rank 9)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1532
- Opponent strength
- 1336
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €551k – €1.6M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 16 pts; changed club; team strength down (-79 Elo); role change LM -> LB; relative output up 90% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -73% (IQR -87% to -66%).
Risk profile
Overall: Very High
- ▲Small sample: 828 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.56 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠League level estimated mainly from squad values (few matches vs other leagues).
- ⚠Age 31: resale value typically declines.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 25 (DEF)
- Relative output kept
- 48%–200%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 72%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | PFK CSKA Moskva | Premier Liga | LB | 9 | 468 | 17% | 0 | 1 | 0.19 | 0.14 | 1336 | 1436 | 0.56 |
| 2025/26 | Sporting CP | Liga Portugal | LB | 9 | 360 | 12% | 0 | 2 | 0.50 | 0.13 | 1217 | 1656 | 0.58 |
| 2024/25 | Sporting CP | Liga Portugal | LM | 30 | 1317 | 43% | 0 | 2 | 0.14 | 0.11 | 1343 | 1610 | 0.51 |
| 2023/24 | Sporting CP | Liga Portugal | LM | 27 | 1423 | 47% | 0 | 4 | 0.25 | 0.14 | 1379 | 1675 | 0.58 |
| 2022/23 | Sporting CP | Liga Portugal | CB | 33 | 2292 | 75% | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.03 | 1374 | 1669 | 0.68 |
| 2021/22 | Sporting CP | Liga Portugal | CB | 26 | 2067 | 68% | 2 | 2 | 0.17 | 0.09 | 1346 | 1692 | 0.67 |
| 2020/21 | Sporting CP | Liga Portugal | LB | 15 | 537 | 18% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 1315 | 1617 | 0.61 |
| 2019/20 | Rio Ave FC | Liga Portugal | LB | 30 | 2538 | 83% | 1 | 3 | 0.14 | 0.13 | 1382 | 1412 | 0.59 |
| 2018/19 | Rio Ave FC | Liga Portugal | LB | 22 | 1612 | 53% | 0 | 5 | 0.28 | 0.22 | 1367 | 1371 | 0.65 |
| 2017/18 | Moreirense FC | Liga Portugal | LB | 2 | 14 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.13 | 1312 | 1281 | 0.64 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Champions League | Sporting CP | 6 | 273 | 0 | 0 | 1724 |
| 2025/26 | Russian Cup | PFK CSKA Moskva | 2 | 135 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Champions League | Sporting CP | 8 | 433 | 0 | 0 | 1622 |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Europa League | Sporting CP | 10 | 742 | 0 | 1 | 1543 |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Champions League | Sporting CP | 6 | 508 | 0 | 0 | 1628 |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Europa League | Sporting CP | 5 | 299 | 0 | 0 | 1653 |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Champions League | Sporting CP | 8 | 612 | 0 | 0 | 1686 |
| 2021/22 | Supercup Candido De Oliveira | Sporting CP | 1 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 1493 |
| 2020/21 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | Rio Ave FC | 2 | 210 | 0 | 0 | 1385 |
| 2018/19 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | Rio Ave FC | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | 1387 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Benoît Poulain Jupiler Pro League · 2018 | 31 | €2.5M | €800k | fell |
| Sergiy Kryvtsov Premier Liga · 2022 | 31 | €3.0M | €2.0M | fell |
| Serdar Aziz Super Lig · 2023 | 33 | €1.7M | €100k | fell |
| Ron Vlaar Eredivisie · 2018 | 33 | €2.0M | €600k | fell |
| Raúl Silva Liga Portugal · 2020 | 31 | €4.0M | €1.0M | fell |
| Aurélien Chedjou Super Lig · 2017 | 32 | €3.0M | €400k | fell |
| Fábio Cardoso Liga Portugal · 2024 | 30 | €3.5M | €1.5M | fell |
| Ugur Ucar Super Lig · 2017 | 30 | €1.8M | €200k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 Feb 2026 | Sporting | CSKA Moscow | Free / loan | €4.0M |
| 1 Jul 2021 | Rio Ave | Sporting | Free / loan | €2.5M |
| 30 Jun 2021 | Sporting | Rio Ave | Free / loan | €2.5M |
| 2 Feb 2021 | Rio Ave | Sporting | Free / loan | €2.5M |
| 1 Jul 2018 | São Paulo | Rio Ave | Unknown | €700k |
| 30 Jun 2018 | Moreirense | São Paulo | Free / loan | €700k |
| 1 Jan 2018 | São Paulo | Moreirense | Free / loan | €800k |
| 31 Dec 2017 | EC Bahia | São Paulo | Free / loan | €800k |
| 4 Jan 2017 | São Paulo | EC Bahia | Free / loan | €750k |
| 31 Dec 2014 | Atl. Sorocaba | São Paulo | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 2 Jan 2014 | São Paulo | Atl. Sorocaba | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jan 2014 | São Paulo U20 | São Paulo | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jan 2012 | São Paulo U17 | São Paulo U20 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jan 2010 | São Paulo For. | São Paulo U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.