Edgaras Utkus
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Edgaras Utkus's performance-implied value at EUR 0.6M-2.2M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.6M-1.9M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.6M-1.7M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 48
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 28.7th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 26 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €1.2M vs market €1.6M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -27% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.65 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1451 (54% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.19
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.14
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 29 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.65 (rank 20)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1325
- Opponent strength
- 1373
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €648k – €1.7M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 18 pts; relative output up 326% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -3% (IQR -45% to +22%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠Limited sample: 1451 league minutes last season.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 76 (DEF)
- Relative output kept
- 67%–160%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 76%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Cercle Brugge | Jupiler Pro League | CB | 19 | 1451 | 54% | 3 | 0 | 0.19 | 0.14 | 1373 | 1325 | 0.65 |
| 2024/25 | Cercle Brugge | Jupiler Pro League | CB | 18 | 973 | 36% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 1313 | 1361 | 0.63 |
| 2023/24 | Cercle Brugge | Jupiler Pro League | CB | 24 | 1439 | 53% | 1 | 1 | 0.13 | 0.12 | 1390 | 1394 | 0.63 |
| 2022/23 | Cercle Brugge | Jupiler Pro League | CB | 2 | 94 | 3% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 1284 | 1373 | 0.58 |
| 2021/22 | Cercle Brugge | Jupiler Pro League | CB | 24 | 1774 | 58% | 3 | 0 | 0.15 | 0.15 | 1340 | 1305 | 0.49 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024/25 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | Cercle Brugge | 3 | 270 | 0 | 0 | 1337 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Barry Douglas Super Lig · 2017 | 28 | €1.5M | €3.5M | rose |
| Patrick William Liga Portugal · 2023 | 26 | €800k | €900k | flat |
| Varazdat Haroyan Premier Liga · 2020 | 28 | €950k | €1.2M | rose |
| Vincent Sasso Liga Portugal · 2018 | 27 | €1.0M | €1.2M | rose |
| Milos Kosanovic Super Lig · 2018 | 28 | €2.0M | €900k | fell |
| Uros Radakovic Premier Liga · 2020 | 26 | €950k | €800k | flat |
| Jaílson Liga Portugal · 2015 | 24 | €1.2M | €700k | fell |
| Igor Oshchypko Premier Liga · 2013 | 28 | €800k | €350k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 Jan 2026 | Cercle Brugge | Al-Kholood | €1.2M | €1.8M |
| 20 Jul 2021 | Monaco B | Cercle Brugge | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2019 | Monaco U19 | Monaco B | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 6 Jan 2018 | LFF Akademija | Monaco U19 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.