Aleksey Gritsaenko
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Aleksey Gritsaenko's performance-implied value at EUR 0.5M-1.2M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.3M-0.8M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.3M-0.7M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: 39
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Average | 35.4th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 31.1 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €350k vs market €1.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -55% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.56 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Very High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 974 (36% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.00
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.04
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 35 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.56 (rank 10)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1339
- Opponent strength
- 1329
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- stable
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €286k – €712k
Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 39 pts; relative output up 71% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -65% (IQR -69% to -56%).
Risk profile
Overall: Very High
- ⚠Limited sample: 974 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.56 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠League level estimated mainly from squad values (few matches vs other leagues).
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⚠Age 31: resale value typically declines.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 25 (DEF)
- Relative output kept
- 48%–200%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 72%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | FC Rubin Kazan | Premier Liga | CB | 13 | 974 | 36% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 1329 | 1339 | 0.56 |
| 2024/25 | FC Rubin Kazan | Premier Liga | CB | 24 | 2030 | 75% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 1282 | 1322 | 0.55 |
| 2023/24 | FC Rubin Kazan | Premier Liga | CB | 29 | 2610 | 97% | 1 | 2 | 0.10 | 0.10 | 1345 | 1271 | 0.49 |
| 2020/21 | PFK Tambov (-2021) | Premier Liga | CB | 10 | 797 | 30% | 1 | 0 | 0.11 | 0.12 | 1364 | 1119 | 0.55 |
| 2019/20 | PFK Tambov (-2021) | Premier Liga | CB | 19 | 1710 | 63% | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.08 | 1389 | 1285 | 0.63 |
| 2018/19 | Enisey Krasnoyarsk | Premier Liga | CB | 16 | 1302 | 48% | 0 | 1 | 0.07 | 0.10 | 1414 | 1226 | 0.69 |
| 2017/18 | FK Krasnodar | Premier Liga | CB | 10 | 900 | 33% | 1 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.08 | 1427 | 1522 | 0.75 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Russian Cup | FC Rubin Kazan | 4 | 315 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Russian Cup | FC Rubin Kazan | 6 | 405 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Russian Cup | FC Rubin Kazan | 3 | 225 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2020/21 | Russian Cup | PFK Tambov (-2021) | 1 | 45 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2019/20 | Russian Cup | PFK Tambov (-2021) | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2018/19 | Russian Cup | Enisey Krasnoyarsk | 2 | 122 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2017/18 | Russian Cup | FK Krasnodar | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bakary Koné Super Lig · 2019 | 31 | €800k | €325k | fell |
| Haitam Aleesami Premier Liga · 2021 | 30 | €1.2M | €300k | fell |
| Georgiy Shchennikov Premier Liga · 2022 | 31 | €1.5M | €300k | fell |
| Ognjen Vranjes Jupiler Pro League · 2021 | 32 | €700k | €250k | fell |
| Fallou Diagne Super Lig · 2019 | 30 | €600k | €200k | fell |
| Thibaut Peyre Jupiler Pro League · 2022 | 30 | €600k | €350k | fell |
| Grygoriy Yarmash Premier Liga · 2015 | 30 | €600k | €200k | fell |
| Jordens Peters Eredivisie · 2018 | 31 | €900k | €600k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Jun 2022 | Kuban | Rubin Kazan | Free / loan | €500k |
| 2 Sept 2021 | Rubin Kazan | Kuban | Free / loan | €700k |
| 1 Feb 2021 | Tambov | Rubin Kazan | Free / loan | €800k |
| 10 Aug 2020 | Krasnodar | Tambov | Free / loan | €800k |
| 31 Jul 2020 | Tambov | Krasnodar | Free / loan | €800k |
| 2 Sept 2019 | Krasnodar | Tambov | Free / loan | €800k |
| 30 Jun 2019 | Enisey | Krasnodar | Free / loan | €800k |
| 14 Jul 2018 | Krasnodar | Enisey | Free / loan | €1.0M |
| 1 Jul 2017 | Luch-Energia | Krasnodar | Unknown | €300k |
| 1 Jul 2015 | Luch-Energia II | Luch-Energia | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.