Ozan Kökcü
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Ozan Kökcü's performance-implied value at EUR 0.3M-0.5M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.1M-0.4M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.3M-0.4M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.91x the positional average in the league (1578 minutes, league coefficient 0.43). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 92
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 3th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 27.9 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €196k vs market €375k |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -12% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.43 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1578 (52% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.17
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.37
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 3 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.43 (rank 15)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1101
- Opponent strength
- 1332
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €262k – €444k
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -28% (IQR -40% to -16%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠Limited sample: 1578 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.43 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 53 (MID)
- Relative output kept
- 76%–148%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 68%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | FC Volendam | Eredivisie | AM | 28 | 1578 | 52% | 1 | 2 | 0.17 | 0.37 | 1332 | 1101 | 0.43 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Knvb Beker | FC Volendam | 3 | 232 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steliano Filip Super League 1 · 2021 | 27 | €400k | €300k | fell |
| Shaun Byrne Scottish Premiership · 2022 | 29 | €375k | €275k | fell |
| Alexandros Nikolias Super League 1 · 2021 | 27 | €500k | €300k | fell |
| Ricki Olsen Superliga · 2018 | 30 | €250k | €150k | fell |
| Theofanis Tzandaris Super League 1 · 2022 | 29 | €250k | €300k | rose |
| Giorgi Merebashvili Super League 1 · 2015 | 29 | €700k | €500k | fell |
| Steven Lawless Scottish Premiership · 2018 | 27 | €300k | €400k | rose |
| Connor Randall Scottish Premiership · 2024 | 29 | €450k | €175k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2026 | FC Volendam | Without Club | Unknown | €375k |
| 1 Jul 2025 | Without Club | FC Volendam | Unknown | €350k |
| 3 May 2025 | HJK Helsinki | Without Club | Unknown | €500k |
| 31 Jul 2024 | FC Eindhoven | HJK Helsinki | Unknown | €550k |
| 6 Aug 2022 | Telstar | FC Eindhoven | €100k | €225k |
| 13 Aug 2021 | Sabah FK | Telstar | Free / loan | €200k |
| 30 Jun 2021 | Telstar | Sabah FK | Free / loan | €200k |
| 13 Jan 2021 | Sabah FK | Telstar | Free / loan | €200k |
| 23 Aug 2019 | Giresunspor | Sabah FK | Unknown | €50k |
| 9 Aug 2018 | Bursaspor | Giresunspor | Unknown | €100k |
| 30 Jun 2018 | RKC Waalwijk | Bursaspor | Free / loan | €100k |
| 4 Jan 2018 | Bursaspor | RKC Waalwijk | Free / loan | €50k |
| 31 Jul 2017 | Feyenoord U19 | Bursaspor | Free / loan | €50k |
| 1 Jul 2016 | Groningen U19 | Feyenoord U19 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2015 | Groningen U17 | Gron./Cam. U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2013 | Groningen Youth | Groningen U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2011 | Stormvogels Jgd | Groningen Youth | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.