Adrián Riera
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Adrián Riera's performance-implied value at EUR 0.2M-0.4M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.1M-0.2M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.1M-0.3M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.51x the positional average in the league (618 minutes, league coefficient 0.43). Confidence is low: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: not assigned
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
Insufficient sample (< 900 league minutes)
| Performance | Below average | 3.5th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 30.2 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €80k vs market €250k |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -20% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.43 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Very High | |
| Data confidence | Low |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1164 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 618 (26% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.29
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.61
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 4 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.42 (rank 16)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1104
- Opponent strength
- 1258
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €124k – €265k
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -23% (IQR -38% to +0%).
Risk profile
Overall: Very High
- ▲Small sample: 618 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.43 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⚠Age 30: resale value typically declines.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 14 (MID)
- Relative output kept
- 67%–189%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 64%
- Confidence
- Low
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Panserraikos Serres | Super League 1 | AM | 9 | 618 | 26% | 1 | 1 | 0.29 | 0.61 | 1258 | 1104 | 0.43 |
| 2024/25 | Omilos Filathlon Irakliou FC | Super League 1 | AM | 14 | 335 | 14% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.42 | 1319 | 1196 | 0.35 |
| 2023/24 | Omilos Filathlon Irakliou FC | Super League 1 | AM | 20 | 798 | 34% | 1 | 0 | 0.11 | 0.37 | 1261 | 1173 | 0.42 |
| 2022/23 | A.G.S Asteras Tripolis | Super League 1 | AM | 21 | 928 | 40% | 1 | 2 | 0.29 | 0.36 | 1231 | 1198 | 0.37 |
| 2021/22 | A.G.S Asteras Tripolis | Super League 1 | RW | 23 | 1281 | 55% | 6 | 4 | 0.70 | 0.58 | 1232 | 1252 | 0.39 |
| 2020/21 | A.G.S Asteras Tripolis | Super League 1 | AM | 23 | 1232 | 53% | 3 | 1 | 0.29 | 0.40 | 1274 | 1283 | 0.39 |
| 2019/20 | A.G.S Asteras Tripolis | Super League 1 | RW | 17 | 984 | 42% | 0 | 6 | 0.55 | 0.63 | 1316 | 1245 | 0.46 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024/25 | Kypello Elladas | Omilos Filathlon Irakliou FC | 3 | 126 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Kypello Elladas | Omilos Filathlon Irakliou FC | 4 | 152 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Kypello Elladas | A.G.S Asteras Tripolis | 1 | 37 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Kypello Elladas | A.G.S Asteras Tripolis | 1 | 79 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2020/21 | Kypello Elladas | A.G.S Asteras Tripolis | 2 | 87 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2019/20 | Kypello Elladas | A.G.S Asteras Tripolis | 3 | 108 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ivan Varone Super League 1 · 2022 | 30 | €300k | €225k | fell |
| Javier Mendoza Super League 1 · 2021 | 29 | €250k | €400k | rose |
| Novica Maksimovic Super League 1 · 2020 | 32 | €300k | €200k | fell |
| Michal Skvarka Super League 1 · 2023 | 31 | €300k | €300k | flat |
| Matías Defederico Super League 1 · 2019 | 30 | €200k | €75k | fell |
| Zinédine Machach Super League 1 · 2023 | 27 | €300k | €300k | flat |
| Sebastian Eriksson Super League 1 · 2019 | 30 | €500k | €400k | fell |
| Farkhod Vasiev Premier Liga · 2021 | 31 | €200k | €100k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 Jan 2026 | Akritas Chlor. | Panserraikos | Free / loan | €250k |
| 23 Aug 2025 | OFI Crete | Akritas Chlor. | Free / loan | €350k |
| 1 Jul 2023 | Asteras Tripoli | OFI Crete | Free / loan | €500k |
| 17 Aug 2019 | Villarreal CF B | Asteras Tripoli | Free / loan | €150k |
| 1 Jul 2018 | CD Toledo | Villarreal CF B | Free / loan | €200k |
| 31 Jan 2018 | Formentera | CD Toledo | Free / loan | €200k |
| 11 Jul 2017 | Getafe CF B | Formentera | Free / loan | €150k |
| 20 Aug 2016 | Atl. Levante | Getafe CF B | Free / loan | €150k |
| 30 Jun 2016 | La Roda CF | Atl. Levante | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Feb 2016 | Atl. Levante | La Roda CF | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 12 Jul 2015 | Levante U19 | Atl. Levante | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.