
Tino Kadewere
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Tino Kadewere's performance-implied value at EUR 0.4M-0.9M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.5M-1.8M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.4M-1.1M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.71x the positional average in the league (459 minutes, league coefficient 0.43). Confidence is low: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: not assigned
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
Insufficient sample (< 900 league minutes)
| Performance | Below average | 17.8th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 30.5 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €792k vs market €1.5M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -54% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.43 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Very High | |
| Data confidence | Low |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 901 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 459 (20% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.00
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.36
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 18 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.42 (rank 16)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1255
- Opponent strength
- 1291
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €385k – €1.1M
Trajectory drivers: changed club; team strength down (-101 Elo); league level down (-186 Elo); relative output down 38% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -33% (IQR -58% to +0%).
Risk profile
Overall: Very High
- ▲Small sample: 459 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.43 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠Age 30: resale value typically declines.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 19 (ATT)
- Relative output kept
- 99%–112%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 47%
- Confidence
- Low
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Aris Thessalonikis | Super League 1 | ST | 11 | 459 | 20% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.36 | 1291 | 1255 | 0.43 |
| 2024/25 | FC Nantes | Ligue 1 | ST | 12 | 513 | 17% | 1 | 2 | 0.53 | 0.60 | 1420 | 1357 | 0.88 |
| 2023/24 | FC Nantes | Ligue 1 | ST | 14 | 781 | 26% | 1 | 0 | 0.12 | 0.47 | 1497 | 1309 | 0.87 |
| 2023/24 | Olympique Lyon | Ligue 1 | ST | 11 | 288 | 9% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.46 | 1530 | 1521 | 0.87 |
| 2022/23 | RCD Mallorca | Laliga | ST | 15 | 539 | 16% | 1 | 0 | 0.17 | 0.45 | 1471 | 1430 | 0.98 |
| 2021/22 | Olympique Lyon | Ligue 1 | ST | 15 | 498 | 15% | 1 | 0 | 0.18 | 0.31 | 1431 | 1587 | 0.86 |
| 2020/21 | Olympique Lyon | Ligue 1 | RW | 33 | 2021 | 59% | 10 | 3 | 0.58 | 0.40 | 1444 | 1587 | 0.75 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | Aris Thessalonikis | 1 | 32 | 0 | 0 | 1377 |
| 2025/26 | Kypello Elladas | Aris Thessalonikis | 1 | 27 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Copa Del Rey | RCD Mallorca | 4 | 163 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Europa League | Olympique Lyon | 5 | 197 | 0 | 0 | 1492 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Britt Assombalonga Super Lig · 2024 | 32 | €1.0M | €1.0M | flat |
| Marcelinho Super League 1 · 2016 | 29 | €1.0M | €750k | fell |
| Renaud Emond Jupiler Pro League · 2022 | 31 | €1.2M | €350k | fell |
| Robert Muric Super Lig · 2024 | 28 | €1.8M | €1.8M | flat |
| Christian Bassogog Super Lig · 2024 | 29 | €1.5M | €900k | fell |
| Modou Barrow Super Lig · 2024 | 32 | €800k | €800k | flat |
| Damian Kądzior Super Lig · 2021 | 29 | €1.7M | €800k | fell |
| Rachid Ghezzal Super Lig · 2024 | 32 | €2.0M | €600k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 Jul 2025 | FC Nantes | Aris Saloniki | Free / loan | €2.5M |
| 1 Jul 2024 | Lyon | FC Nantes | Free / loan | €2.5M |
| 30 Jun 2024 | FC Nantes | Lyon | Free / loan | €2.5M |
| 4 Jan 2024 | Lyon | FC Nantes | Free / loan | €2.5M |
| 30 Jun 2023 | RCD Mallorca | Lyon | Free / loan | €4.0M |
| 29 Aug 2022 | Lyon | RCD Mallorca | Free / loan | €6.0M |
| 30 Jun 2020 | Le Havre AC | Lyon | Free / loan | €6.5M |
| 23 Jan 2020 | Lyon | Le Havre AC | Free / loan | €4.0M |
| 22 Jan 2020 | Le Havre AC | Lyon | €12.0M | €4.0M |
| 27 Jul 2018 | Djurgården | Le Havre AC | €2.0M | €800k |
| 1 Jan 2016 | Harare City | Djurgården | Unknown | €100k |
| 1 Dec 2015 | Djurgården | Harare City | Free / loan | €100k |
| 6 Aug 2015 | Harare City | Djurgården | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.