Tino Kadewere

30 yrs · Striker (also RW) · Zimbabwe
Aris Thessalonikis · Super League 1 · Foot: right · Height: 183 cm
Risk: Very HighConfidence: LowSample: LowDevelopment: LowContract: until 30 Jun 2028
Market value
€1.5M
Updated 7 days ago
Estimated acquisition
€533k – €1.8M
Estimated · 20–80% range
Model value
€368k – €936k
Performance-implied · estimated
Projected (24m)
€385k – €1.1M
Resale range · estimated
Potential value gap
-€1.4M – €403k
Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€533k – €1.8M
Model value (performance-implied)€368k – €936k
Projected value (24 months)€385k – €1.1M
Dashed line: current market value (€1.5M). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates Tino Kadewere's performance-implied value at EUR 0.4M-0.9M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.5M-1.8M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.4M-1.1M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.71x the positional average in the league (459 minutes, league coefficient 0.43). Confidence is low: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Bargain Index: not assigned

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

Insufficient sample (< 900 league minutes)

PerformanceBelow average17.8th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral)
AgeUnfavorable30.5 years
Acquisition costVery favorableest. €792k vs market €1.5M
Expected appreciationVery low-54% over ~2 years (model)
Value gapVery negativeweak predictor on its own
DevelopmentLow
League translationUncertainleague coefficient 0.43
Tactical fitNot evaluatedRequires event/role data not available from the current free source.
RiskVery High
Data confidenceLow

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €14.0M

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 901 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes
459 (20% of available)
Goals + assists / 90
0.00
Context-adjusted G+A / 90
0.36
xG, xA, progression
Data unavailable
Defensive actions
Data unavailable
Performance percentile
18 (Below average)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength
0.42 (rank 16)
Team strength (Elo)
1255
Opponent strength
1291
Possession, role
Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development
Low
Trajectory
declining
Breakout probability
Age > 23
Resale range (24m)
€385k – €1.1M

Trajectory drivers: changed club; team strength down (-101 Elo); league level down (-186 Elo); relative output down 38% vs positional peers.

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -33% (IQR -58% to +0%).

Risk profile

Overall: Very High

  • ▲Small sample: 459 league minutes last season.
  • ⚠League level coefficient 0.43 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
  • ⚠Age 30: resale value typically declines.
  • ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
  • ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
  • ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Historical movers
19 (ATT)
Relative output kept
99%–112%
Held a regular role (900+ min)
47%
Confidence
Low

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

SeasonClubLeaguePosAppsMinMin shareGAG+A/90Adj. G+A/90Opp. EloTeam EloLeague str.
2025/26Aris ThessalonikisSuper League 1ST1145920%000.000.36129112550.43
2024/25FC NantesLigue 1ST1251317%120.530.60142013570.88
2023/24FC NantesLigue 1ST1478126%100.120.47149713090.87
2023/24Olympique LyonLigue 1ST112889%000.000.46153015210.87
2022/23RCD MallorcaLaligaST1553916%100.170.45147114300.98
2021/22Olympique LyonLigue 1ST1549815%100.180.31143115870.86
2020/21Olympique LyonLigue 1RW33202159%1030.580.40144415870.75

Cups & continental competitions

SeasonCompetitionClubAppsMinGAAvg opp. Elo
2025/26Uefa Conference League QualifyingAris Thessalonikis132001377
2025/26Kypello ElladasAris Thessalonikis12700—
2022/23Copa Del ReyRCD Mallorca416310—
2021/22Uefa Europa LeagueOlympique Lyon5197001492

Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)AgeValue then~2y laterOutcome
Britt Assombalonga
Super Lig · 2024
32€1.0M€1.0Mflat
Marcelinho
Super League 1 · 2016
29€1.0M€750kfell
Renaud Emond
Jupiler Pro League · 2022
31€1.2M€350kfell
Robert Muric
Super Lig · 2024
28€1.8M€1.8Mflat
Christian Bassogog
Super Lig · 2024
29€1.5M€900kfell
Modou Barrow
Super Lig · 2024
32€800k€800kflat
Damian Kądzior
Super Lig · 2021
29€1.7M€800kfell
Rachid Ghezzal
Super Lig · 2024
32€2.0M€600kfell

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

DateFromToFeeMV at time
22 Jul 2025FC NantesAris SalonikiFree / loan€2.5M
1 Jul 2024LyonFC NantesFree / loan€2.5M
30 Jun 2024FC NantesLyonFree / loan€2.5M
4 Jan 2024LyonFC NantesFree / loan€2.5M
30 Jun 2023RCD MallorcaLyonFree / loan€4.0M
29 Aug 2022LyonRCD MallorcaFree / loan€6.0M
30 Jun 2020Le Havre ACLyonFree / loan€6.5M
23 Jan 2020LyonLe Havre ACFree / loan€4.0M
22 Jan 2020Le Havre ACLyon€12.0M€4.0M
27 Jul 2018DjurgårdenLe Havre AC€2.0M€800k
1 Jan 2016Harare CityDjurgårdenUnknown€100k
1 Dec 2015DjurgårdenHarare CityFree / loan€100k
6 Aug 2015Harare CityDjurgårdenFree / loanData unavailable

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.