Jon Ceberio
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Jon Ceberio's performance-implied value at EUR 0.3M-0.6M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.1M-0.4M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.2M-0.4M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.93x the positional average in the league (1792 minutes, league coefficient 0.25). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Contract end date unavailable: range widened by 15% each side.
Bargain Index: 84
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 4.4th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 29.8 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €201k vs market €350k |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -16% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.25 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1792 (66% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.15
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.20
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 4 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.25 (rank 30)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1091
- Opponent strength
- 1151
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €206k – €361k
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -25% (IQR -38% to -13%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ▲League level coefficient 0.25 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠Limited sample: 1792 league minutes last season.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⓘContract end date unavailable (or stale in source).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 37 (all positions)
- Relative output kept
- 87%–128%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 86%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Epicentr Kamyanets-Podilskyi | Premier Liga | CM | 24 | 1792 | 66% | 3 | 0 | 0.15 | 0.20 | 1151 | 1091 | 0.25 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Ukrainian Cup | Epicentr Kamyanets-Podilskyi | 1 | 61 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Orest Kuzyk Premier Liga · 2024 | 29 | €500k | €250k | fell |
| Connor Randall Scottish Premiership · 2024 | 29 | €450k | €175k | fell |
| İbrahim Akdağ Super Lig · 2021 | 30 | €400k | €300k | fell |
| Vykintas Slivka Super League 1 · 2023 | 28 | €400k | €500k | rose |
| Jon Sporn Premier Liga · 2024 | 27 | €600k | €400k | fell |
| Dimitrios Kolovos Super League 1 · 2023 | 30 | €600k | €500k | flat |
| Fabrício Baiano Super Lig · 2021 | 29 | €600k | €450k | fell |
| Yegor Kartushov Premier Liga · 2023 | 32 | €300k | €300k | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 Aug 2025 | CD Lugo | Epicentr | Free / loan | €150k |
| 1 Jul 2024 | CF Intercity | CD Lugo | Free / loan | €200k |
| 28 Jul 2023 | San Fernando CD | CF Intercity | Free / loan | €200k |
| 8 Jul 2022 | CF Talavera | San Fernando CD | Free / loan | €250k |
| 10 Aug 2020 | UD Melilla | CF Talavera | Free / loan | €250k |
| 20 Jul 2019 | Real Unión | UD Melilla | Free / loan | €250k |
| 1 Jul 2018 | Real Sociedad C | Real Unión | Free / loan | €200k |
| 30 Jun 2018 | Peña Sport FC | Real Sociedad C | Free / loan | €200k |
| 19 Jul 2017 | Real Sociedad C | Peña Sport FC | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2016 | Bolton U23 | Real Sociedad C | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2015 | Antiguoko U19 | Bolton U21 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.