Konrad Michalak
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Konrad Michalak's performance-implied value at EUR 0.3M-0.8M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.1M-0.6M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.3M-0.6M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.08x the positional average in the league (1210 minutes, league coefficient 0.43). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Contract end date unavailable: range widened by 15% each side.
Bargain Index: 86
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 12.1th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 28.8 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €274k vs market €500k |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -18% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.43 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1210 (52% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.37
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.44
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 12 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.42 (rank 16)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1182
- Opponent strength
- 1241
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €296k – €604k
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +0% (IQR -12% to +11%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠Limited sample: 1210 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.43 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⓘContract end date unavailable (or stale in source).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 19 (ATT)
- Relative output kept
- 99%–112%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 47%
- Confidence
- Low
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Panetolikos Agrinio | Super League 1 | LW | 21 | 1210 | 52% | 2 | 3 | 0.37 | 0.44 | 1241 | 1182 | 0.43 |
| 2023/24 | Konyaspor | Super Lig | RW | 4 | 228 | 7% | 0 | 1 | 0.39 | 0.38 | 1270 | 1284 | 0.45 |
| 2022/23 | Konyaspor | Super Lig | RW | 26 | 1622 | 50% | 0 | 1 | 0.06 | 0.18 | 1289 | 1355 | 0.50 |
| 2021/22 | Konyaspor | Super Lig | RW | 35 | 1479 | 43% | 3 | 4 | 0.43 | 0.37 | 1247 | 1330 | 0.42 |
| 2020/21 | Caykur Rizespor | Super Lig | RW | 31 | 1364 | 38% | 2 | 6 | 0.53 | 0.54 | 1279 | 1174 | 0.37 |
| 2019/20 | MKE Ankaragücü | Super Lig | LW | 14 | 819 | 27% | 0 | 3 | 0.33 | 0.50 | 1380 | 1193 | 0.45 |
| 2019/20 | RFK Akhmat Grozny | Premier Liga | LW | 6 | 229 | 8% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.37 | 1385 | 1312 | 0.63 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Kypello Elladas | Panetolikos Agrinio | 4 | 170 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | Konyaspor | 3 | 192 | 1 | 0 | 1392 |
| 2019/20 | Russian Cup | RFK Akhmat Grozny | 2 | 140 | 1 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frederik Gytkjaer Superliga · 2020 | 27 | €325k | €400k | rose |
| Thuram Super League 1 · 2020 | 29 | €325k | €450k | rose |
| Kris Doolan Scottish Premiership · 2015 | 29 | €350k | €375k | flat |
| Marc Fernández Super League 1 · 2019 | 29 | €400k | €400k | flat |
| Panagiotis Moraitis Super League 1 · 2024 | 27 | €400k | €400k | flat |
| Claudiu Bălan Super League 1 · 2023 | 29 | €500k | €300k | fell |
| Arvydas Novikovas Super Lig · 2021 | 31 | €600k | €300k | fell |
| Washington Brandão Superliga · 2019 | 29 | €300k | €300k | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 Aug 2025 | Ohod Club | Panetolikos | Free / loan | €600k |
| 9 Feb 2025 | Zamalek | Ohod Club | Free / loan | €1.0M |
| 12 Sept 2024 | Ohod Club | Zamalek | Free / loan | €1.0M |
| 12 Sept 2023 | Konyaspor | Ohod Club | €1.1M | €1.7M |
| 1 Jul 2022 | Akhmat Grozny | Konyaspor | €500k | €1.7M |
| 30 Jun 2022 | Konyaspor | Akhmat Grozny | Free / loan | €1.7M |
| 17 Aug 2021 | Akhmat Grozny | Konyaspor | Free / loan | €1.5M |
| 30 Jun 2021 | C. Rizespor | Akhmat Grozny | Free / loan | €1.5M |
| 24 Aug 2020 | Akhmat Grozny | C. Rizespor | Free / loan | €750k |
| 3 Aug 2020 | Ankaragücü | Akhmat Grozny | Free / loan | €550k |
| 31 Jan 2020 | Akhmat Grozny | Ankaragücü | Free / loan | €700k |
| 1 Jul 2019 | Lechia Gdansk | Akhmat Grozny | €1.5M | €750k |
| 14 Aug 2018 | Legia Warszawa | Lechia Gdansk | Free / loan | €500k |
| 30 Jun 2018 | Wisla Plock | Legia Warszawa | Free / loan | €250k |
| 5 Aug 2017 | Legia Warszawa | Wisla Plock | Free / loan | €100k |
| 6 Jul 2017 | Legia II | Legia Warszawa | Unknown | €100k |
| 30 Jun 2017 | Z. Sosnowiec | Legia II | Free / loan | €100k |
| 9 Feb 2017 | Legia II | Z. Sosnowiec | Free / loan | €100k |
| 1 Jan 2014 | Legia U19 | Legia II | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2013 | Falubaz U19 | Legia U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2009 | Czarni Zagan | Falubaz U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.