Jandro Orellana
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Jandro Orellana's performance-implied value at EUR 0.4M-1.0M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.3M-0.9M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.6M-1.3M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.68x the positional average in the league (1316 minutes, league coefficient 0.58). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: 92
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 20.7th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 25.9 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €435k vs market €1.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -16% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.58 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1316 (43% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.07
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.15
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 21 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.58 (rank 9)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1305
- Opponent strength
- 1347
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €574k – €1.3M
Trajectory drivers: relative output down 40% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -19% (IQR -58% to -10%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ⚠Limited sample: 1316 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.58 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 58 (MID)
- Relative output kept
- 72%–151%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 78%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | GD Estoril Praia | Liga Portugal | CM | 19 | 1316 | 43% | 0 | 1 | 0.07 | 0.15 | 1347 | 1305 | 0.58 |
| 2024/25 | GD Estoril Praia | Liga Portugal | CM | 23 | 1017 | 33% | 1 | 1 | 0.18 | 0.24 | 1359 | 1302 | 0.51 |
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Johan Mårtensson Eredivisie · 2014 | 25 | €750k | €600k | fell |
| Andy Driver Scottish Premiership · 2013 | 26 | €1.3M | €1.3M | flat |
| Christian Liga Portugal · 2016 | 27 | €1.0M | €450k | fell |
| Sergiy Politylo Premier Liga · 2015 | 26 | €800k | €700k | flat |
| Guga Liga Portugal · 2021 | 24 | €700k | €3.0M | rose |
| Jorge Correa Liga Portugal · 2018 | 25 | €800k | €650k | flat |
| Yacouba Sylla Jupiler Pro League · 2018 | 28 | €1.0M | €350k | fell |
| Kamal Issah Super Lig · 2017 | 25 | €650k | €200k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 Jul 2024 | FC Andorra | Estoril | Unknown | €1.0M |
| 22 Jul 2022 | Barça Atlètic | FC Andorra | Free / loan | €1.5M |
| 1 Jul 2019 | Barça U19 | Barcelona B | Unknown | €300k |
| 1 Jul 2017 | Barça U18 | Barça U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2016 | Barça U16 | Barça U18 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2015 | Barça Youth | Barça U16 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2014 | Espanyol Youth | Barça Youth | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2012 | EF Gava | Espanyol Youth | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.