
Santiago Colombatto
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Santiago Colombatto's performance-implied value at EUR 1.0M-3.5M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.8M-2.1M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.9M-2.3M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.78x the positional average in the league (2070 minutes, league coefficient 0.95). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: 55
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Average | 49.3th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 29.5 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €1.0M vs market €2.5M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -48% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.95 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2070 (61% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.04
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.10
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 49 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.95 (rank 2)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1294
- Opponent strength
- 1494
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €919k – €2.3M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -52% (IQR -67% to -50%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Real Oviedo | Laliga | DM | 32 | 2070 | 61% | 0 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.10 | 1494 | 1294 | 0.95 |
| 2022/23 | FC Famalicão | Liga Portugal | DM | 33 | 2620 | 86% | 3 | 6 | 0.31 | 0.34 | 1409 | 1362 | 0.68 |
| 2020/21 | Sint-Truidense VV | Jupiler Pro League | CM | 11 | 866 | 28% | 0 | 1 | 0.10 | 0.16 | 1338 | 1284 | 0.55 |
| 2019/20 | Sint-Truidense VV | Jupiler Pro League | DM | 19 | 1502 | 58% | 0 | 2 | 0.12 | 0.11 | 1378 | 1314 | 0.63 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Copa Del Rey | Real Oviedo | 1 | 64 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bruno Grougi Ligue 1 · 2013 | 30 | €2.0M | €500k | fell |
| Arkadiusz Reca Serie A · 2023 | 28 | €3.0M | €1.0M | fell |
| Andrea Luci Serie A · 2014 | 29 | €1.5M | €700k | fell |
| Pasquale Mazzocchi Serie A · 2024 | 29 | €3.0M | €1.5M | fell |
| Thomas Delaine Ligue 1 · 2022 | 30 | €2.0M | €1.0M | fell |
| Julien Cétout Ligue 1 · 2017 | 29 | €1.5M | €500k | fell |
| Kamel Chafni Ligue 1 · 2013 | 31 | €1.5M | €750k | fell |
| Wissem Ben Yahia Super Lig · 2013 | 29 | €1.5M | €800k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Jun 2026 | Real Oviedo | León | Free / loan | €2.5M |
| 25 Aug 2023 | León | Real Oviedo | Free / loan | €4.0M |
| 30 Jun 2023 | Famalicão | León | Free / loan | €4.0M |
| 2 Aug 2022 | León | Famalicão | Free / loan | €2.5M |
| 1 Jul 2021 | Sint-Truiden | León | €800k | €1.5M |
| 30 Jun 2021 | León | Sint-Truiden | Free / loan | €1.5M |
| 8 Jan 2021 | Sint-Truiden | León | Free / loan | €900k |
| 31 Aug 2019 | Cagliari | Sint-Truiden | €810k | €1.4M |
| 30 Jun 2019 | Hellas Verona | Cagliari | Free / loan | €1.4M |
| 16 Aug 2018 | Cagliari | Hellas Verona | Free / loan | €1.3M |
| 30 Jun 2018 | Perugia | Cagliari | Free / loan | €1.3M |
| 7 Aug 2017 | Cagliari | Perugia | Free / loan | €700k |
| 30 Jun 2017 | Trapani | Cagliari | Free / loan | €700k |
| 31 Aug 2016 | Cagliari | Trapani | Free / loan | €150k |
| 30 Aug 2016 | AC Pisa | Cagliari | Free / loan | €150k |
| 11 Jul 2016 | Cagliari U19 | AC Pisa | Free / loan | €150k |
| 1 Jul 2015 | River Plate U20 | Cagliari U19 | €15k | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.