Santiago Colombatto

29 yrs · Defensive midfielder (also CM) · Argentina
Real Oviedo · Laliga · Foot: left · Height: 178 cm
Risk: LowConfidence: MediumSample: HighDevelopment: LowContract: until 30 Jun 2027
Market value
€2.5M
Updated 7 days ago
Estimated acquisition
€772k – €2.1M
Estimated · 20–80% range
Model value
€1.0M – €3.5M
Performance-implied · estimated
Projected (24m)
€919k – €2.3M
Resale range · estimated
Potential value gap
-€1.0M – €2.7M
Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€772k – €2.1M
Model value (performance-implied)€1.0M – €3.5M
Projected value (24 months)€919k – €2.3M
Dashed line: current market value (€2.5M). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates Santiago Colombatto's performance-implied value at EUR 1.0M-3.5M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.8M-2.1M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.9M-2.3M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.78x the positional average in the league (2070 minutes, league coefficient 0.95). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.

Bargain Index: 55

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

PerformanceAverage49.3th pct among MID peers (age-neutral)
AgeUnfavorable29.5 years
Acquisition costVery favorableest. €1.0M vs market €2.5M
Expected appreciationVery low-48% over ~2 years (model)
Value gapLargeweak predictor on its own
DevelopmentLow
League translationBig-five leagueleague coefficient 0.95
Tactical fitNot evaluatedRequires event/role data not available from the current free source.
RiskLow
Data confidenceMedium

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €4.0M

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes
2070 (61% of available)
Goals + assists / 90
0.04
Context-adjusted G+A / 90
0.10
xG, xA, progression
Data unavailable
Defensive actions
Data unavailable
Performance percentile
49 (Average)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength
0.95 (rank 2)
Team strength (Elo)
1294
Opponent strength
1494
Possession, role
Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development
Low
Trajectory
insufficient
Breakout probability
Age > 23
Resale range (24m)
€919k – €2.3M

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -52% (IQR -67% to -50%).

Risk profile

Overall: Low

  • ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
  • ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Already playing in a big-five league.

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

SeasonClubLeaguePosAppsMinMin shareGAG+A/90Adj. G+A/90Opp. EloTeam EloLeague str.
2025/26Real OviedoLaligaDM32207061%010.040.10149412940.95
2022/23FC FamalicãoLiga PortugalDM33262086%360.310.34140913620.68
2020/21Sint-Truidense VVJupiler Pro LeagueCM1186628%010.100.16133812840.55
2019/20Sint-Truidense VVJupiler Pro LeagueDM19150258%020.120.11137813140.63

Cups & continental competitions

SeasonCompetitionClubAppsMinGAAvg opp. Elo
2025/26Copa Del ReyReal Oviedo16400—

Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)AgeValue then~2y laterOutcome
Bruno Grougi
Ligue 1 · 2013
30€2.0M€500kfell
Arkadiusz Reca
Serie A · 2023
28€3.0M€1.0Mfell
Andrea Luci
Serie A · 2014
29€1.5M€700kfell
Pasquale Mazzocchi
Serie A · 2024
29€3.0M€1.5Mfell
Thomas Delaine
Ligue 1 · 2022
30€2.0M€1.0Mfell
Julien Cétout
Ligue 1 · 2017
29€1.5M€500kfell
Kamel Chafni
Ligue 1 · 2013
31€1.5M€750kfell
Wissem Ben Yahia
Super Lig · 2013
29€1.5M€800kfell

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

DateFromToFeeMV at time
30 Jun 2026Real OviedoLeónFree / loan€2.5M
25 Aug 2023LeónReal OviedoFree / loan€4.0M
30 Jun 2023FamalicãoLeónFree / loan€4.0M
2 Aug 2022LeónFamalicãoFree / loan€2.5M
1 Jul 2021Sint-TruidenLeón€800k€1.5M
30 Jun 2021LeónSint-TruidenFree / loan€1.5M
8 Jan 2021Sint-TruidenLeónFree / loan€900k
31 Aug 2019CagliariSint-Truiden€810k€1.4M
30 Jun 2019Hellas VeronaCagliariFree / loan€1.4M
16 Aug 2018CagliariHellas VeronaFree / loan€1.3M
30 Jun 2018PerugiaCagliariFree / loan€1.3M
7 Aug 2017CagliariPerugiaFree / loan€700k
30 Jun 2017TrapaniCagliariFree / loan€700k
31 Aug 2016CagliariTrapaniFree / loan€150k
30 Aug 2016AC PisaCagliariFree / loan€150k
11 Jul 2016Cagliari U19AC PisaFree / loan€150k
1 Jul 2015River Plate U20Cagliari U19€15kData unavailable

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.