
Toni Borevković
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Toni Borevković's performance-implied value at EUR 0.6M-3.6M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.6M-2.3M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.7M-1.8M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 48
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Average | 51.7th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 29 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €1.2M vs market €2.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -41% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.4 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1225 (40% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.07
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.08
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 52 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.40 (rank 9)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1314
- Opponent strength
- 1279
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- stable
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €659k – €1.8M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 39 pts; changed club; team strength down (-99 Elo); league level down (-48 Elo); relative output up 402% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -44% (IQR -67% to -37%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠Limited sample: 1225 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.40 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 50 (DEF)
- Relative output kept
- 68%–191%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 54%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Samsunspor | Super Lig | CB | 18 | 1135 | 37% | 1 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.08 | 1279 | 1310 | 0.40 |
| 2025/26 | Vitória Guimarães SC | Liga Portugal | CB | 1 | 90 | 3% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 1482 | 1361 | 0.58 |
| 2024/25 | Vitória Guimarães SC | Liga Portugal | CB | 27 | 2421 | 79% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 1313 | 1412 | 0.51 |
| 2023/24 | Vitória Guimarães SC | Liga Portugal | CB | 23 | 2044 | 67% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 1407 | 1397 | 0.58 |
| 2021/22 | Vitória Guimarães SC | Liga Portugal | CB | 24 | 1992 | 65% | 0 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.06 | 1341 | 1399 | 0.67 |
| 2020/21 | Rio Ave FC | Liga Portugal | CB | 32 | 2833 | 93% | 0 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.04 | 1343 | 1320 | 0.61 |
| 2019/20 | Rio Ave FC | Liga Portugal | CB | 32 | 2788 | 91% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 1389 | 1412 | 0.59 |
| 2018/19 | Rio Ave FC | Liga Portugal | CB | 19 | 1658 | 54% | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 1379 | 1371 | 0.65 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024/25 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | Vitória Guimarães SC | 6 | 540 | 1 | 0 | 1335 |
| 2020/21 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | Rio Ave FC | 3 | 330 | 0 | 0 | 1466 |
| 2018/19 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | Rio Ave FC | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1374 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jure Balkovec Super Lig · 2022 | 28 | €2.3M | €1.2M | fell |
| Andreas Maxsø Superliga · 2023 | 29 | €2.0M | €1.2M | fell |
| Hasan Ali Kaldırım Super Lig · 2020 | 31 | €1.7M | €425k | fell |
| Gastón Campi Super Lig · 2021 | 30 | €1.2M | €375k | fell |
| Michalis Bakakis Super League 1 · 2021 | 30 | €900k | €300k | fell |
| Ibrahim Dresevic Super Lig · 2024 | 27 | €1.8M | €1.4M | fell |
| Milad Mohammadi Super League 1 · 2022 | 29 | €2.0M | €1.3M | fell |
| Rasmus Bengtsson Eredivisie · 2015 | 29 | €2.0M | €1.3M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 Aug 2025 | Vit. Guimarães | Samsunspor | €1.0M | €5.0M |
| 30 Jun 2023 | Hajduk Split | Vit. Guimarães | Free / loan | €1.0M |
| 1 Jul 2022 | Vit. Guimarães | Hajduk Split | Free / loan | €3.0M |
| 7 Jul 2021 | Rio Ave | Vit. Guimarães | €1.2M | €3.0M |
| 1 Jul 2018 | NK Rudes | Rio Ave | Unknown | €150k |
| 12 Aug 2016 | Din. Zagreb U19 | NK Rudes | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 30 Jun 2016 | NK Rudes | Din. Zagreb U19 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 12 Feb 2016 | Din. Zagreb U19 | NK Rudes | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2014 | Din. Zagreb U17 | Din. Zagreb U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 6 Jul 2012 | NK Marsonia Jgd | Din. Zagreb U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.