Toni Borevković

29 yrs · Centre-back · Croatia
Vitória Guimarães SC · Liga Portugal · Foot: right · Height: 193 cm
Risk: ModerateConfidence: MediumSample: MediumDevelopment: LowContract: until 30 Jun 2028
Market value
€2.0M
Updated 7 days ago
Estimated acquisition
€614k – €2.3M
Estimated · 20–80% range
Model value
€639k – €3.6M
Performance-implied · estimated
Projected (24m)
€659k – €1.8M
Resale range · estimated
Potential value gap
-€1.6M – €3.0M
Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€614k – €2.3M
Model value (performance-implied)€639k – €3.6M
Projected value (24 months)€659k – €1.8M
Dashed line: current market value (€2.0M). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates Toni Borevković's performance-implied value at EUR 0.6M-3.6M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.6M-2.3M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.7M-1.8M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Bargain Index: 48

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

PerformanceAverage51.7th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral)
AgeUnfavorable29 years
Acquisition costVery favorableest. €1.2M vs market €2.0M
Expected appreciationVery low-41% over ~2 years (model)
Value gapLargeweak predictor on its own
DevelopmentLow
League translationUncertainleague coefficient 0.4
Tactical fitNot evaluatedRequires event/role data not available from the current free source.
RiskModerate
Data confidenceMedium

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €5.0M

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes
1225 (40% of available)
Goals + assists / 90
0.07
Context-adjusted G+A / 90
0.08
xG, xA, progression
Data unavailable
Defensive actions
Data unavailable
Performance percentile
52 (Average)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength
0.40 (rank 9)
Team strength (Elo)
1314
Opponent strength
1279
Possession, role
Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development
Low
Trajectory
stable
Breakout probability
Age > 23
Resale range (24m)
€659k – €1.8M

Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 39 pts; changed club; team strength down (-99 Elo); league level down (-48 Elo); relative output up 402% vs positional peers.

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -44% (IQR -67% to -37%).

Risk profile

Overall: Moderate

  • ⚠Limited sample: 1225 league minutes last season.
  • ⚠League level coefficient 0.40 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
  • ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
  • ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Historical movers
50 (DEF)
Relative output kept
68%–191%
Held a regular role (900+ min)
54%
Confidence
Medium

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

SeasonClubLeaguePosAppsMinMin shareGAG+A/90Adj. G+A/90Opp. EloTeam EloLeague str.
2025/26SamsunsporSuper LigCB18113537%100.080.08127913100.40
2025/26Vitória Guimarães SCLiga PortugalCB1903%000.000.08148213610.58
2024/25Vitória Guimarães SCLiga PortugalCB27242179%000.000.01131314120.51
2023/24Vitória Guimarães SCLiga PortugalCB23204467%000.000.02140713970.58
2021/22Vitória Guimarães SCLiga PortugalCB24199265%010.050.06134113990.67
2020/21Rio Ave FCLiga PortugalCB32283393%010.030.04134313200.61
2019/20Rio Ave FCLiga PortugalCB32278891%000.000.01138914120.59
2018/19Rio Ave FCLiga PortugalCB19165854%100.050.05137913710.65

Cups & continental competitions

SeasonCompetitionClubAppsMinGAAvg opp. Elo
2024/25Uefa Conference League QualifyingVitória Guimarães SC6540101335
2020/21Uefa Europa League QualifyingRio Ave FC3330001466
2018/19Uefa Europa League QualifyingRio Ave FC190001374

Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)AgeValue then~2y laterOutcome
Jure Balkovec
Super Lig · 2022
28€2.3M€1.2Mfell
Andreas Maxsø
Superliga · 2023
29€2.0M€1.2Mfell
Hasan Ali Kaldırım
Super Lig · 2020
31€1.7M€425kfell
Gastón Campi
Super Lig · 2021
30€1.2M€375kfell
Michalis Bakakis
Super League 1 · 2021
30€900k€300kfell
Ibrahim Dresevic
Super Lig · 2024
27€1.8M€1.4Mfell
Milad Mohammadi
Super League 1 · 2022
29€2.0M€1.3Mfell
Rasmus Bengtsson
Eredivisie · 2015
29€2.0M€1.3Mfell

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

DateFromToFeeMV at time
15 Aug 2025Vit. GuimarãesSamsunspor€1.0M€5.0M
30 Jun 2023Hajduk SplitVit. GuimarãesFree / loan€1.0M
1 Jul 2022Vit. GuimarãesHajduk SplitFree / loan€3.0M
7 Jul 2021Rio AveVit. Guimarães€1.2M€3.0M
1 Jul 2018NK RudesRio AveUnknown€150k
12 Aug 2016Din. Zagreb U19NK RudesUnknownData unavailable
30 Jun 2016NK RudesDin. Zagreb U19Free / loanData unavailable
12 Feb 2016Din. Zagreb U19NK RudesFree / loanData unavailable
1 Jul 2014Din. Zagreb U17Din. Zagreb U19UnknownData unavailable
6 Jul 2012NK Marsonia JgdDin. Zagreb U17UnknownData unavailable

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.