Gonzalo Villar

28 yrs · Central midfielder (also DM) · Spain
GNK Dinamo Zagreb · Supersport Hnl · Foot: right · Height: 181 cm
Risk: ModerateConfidence: LowSample: LowDevelopment: LowContract: until 30 Jun 2029
Market value
€1.8M
Updated today
Estimated acquisition
€651k – €1.9M
Estimated · 20–80% range
Model value
€1.4M – €3.1M
Performance-implied · estimated
Projected (24m)
€756k – €1.9M
Resale range · estimated
Potential value gap
-€438k – €2.5M
Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€651k – €1.9M
Model value (performance-implied)€1.4M – €3.1M
Projected value (24 months)€756k – €1.9M
Dashed line: current market value (€1.8M). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates Gonzalo Villar's performance-implied value at EUR 1.4M-3.1M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.7M-1.9M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.8M-1.9M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.02x the positional average in the league (718 minutes, league coefficient 0.95). Confidence is low: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Bargain Index: not assigned

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

Insufficient sample (< 900 league minutes)

PerformanceAverage46.2th pct among MID peers (age-neutral)
AgeUnfavorable28.3 years
Acquisition costFavorableest. €1.1M vs market €1.8M
Expected appreciationLow-22% over ~2 years (model)
Value gapLargeweak predictor on its own
DevelopmentLow
League translationBig-five leagueleague coefficient 0.95
Tactical fitNot evaluatedRequires event/role data not available from the current free source.
RiskModerate
Data confidenceLow

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €15.0M

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 1164 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes
718 (21% of available)
Goals + assists / 90
0.13
Context-adjusted G+A / 90
0.22
xG, xA, progression
Data unavailable
Defensive actions
Data unavailable
Performance percentile
46 (Average)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength
0.95 (rank 25)
Team strength (Elo)
1389
Opponent strength
1466
Possession, role
Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development
Low
Trajectory
insufficient
Breakout probability
Age > 23
Resale range (24m)
€756k – €1.9M

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -18% (IQR -46% to +0%).

Risk profile

Overall: Moderate

  • ▲Small sample: 718 league minutes last season.
  • ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
  • ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Already playing in a big-five league.

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

SeasonClubLeaguePosAppsMinMin shareGAG+A/90Adj. G+A/90Opp. EloTeam EloLeague str.
2025/26Elche CFLaligaCM1271821%100.130.22146613890.95
2023/24Granada CFLaligaCM35178552%130.200.33148313151.00
2022/23UC SampdoriaSerie ADM1569520%000.000.10147912710.94
2022/23Getafe CFLaligaCM1644513%000.000.17147514340.98
2021/22Getafe CFLaligaCM102919%010.310.36161914581.05
2020/21Associazione Sportiva RomaSerie ADM33186154%010.050.04143315910.90
2019/20Associazione Sportiva RomaSerie ADM92939%000.000.06143915820.82

Cups & continental competitions

SeasonCompetitionClubAppsMinGAAvg opp. Elo
2025/26Uefa Europa LeagueGNK Dinamo Zagreb326001526
2023/24Copa Del ReyGranada CF15901—
2022/23Italy CupUC Sampdoria17400—
2021/22Uefa Conference League QualifyingAssociazione Sportiva Roma111001382
2020/21Uefa Europa LeagueAssociazione Sportiva Roma13786001571
2020/21Italy CupAssociazione Sportiva Roma16900—
2019/20Copa Del ReyElche CF26300—
2019/20Uefa Europa LeagueAssociazione Sportiva Roma219001629

Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)AgeValue then~2y laterOutcome
Raphael Martinho
Serie A · 2016
28€1.3M€300kfell
Jailson
Laliga · 2024
29€1.5M€1.5Mflat
Valentin Eysseric
Serie A · 2021
29€1.5M€1.5Mflat
Valerio Verre
Serie A · 2022
28€2.5M€1.4Mfell
Daniel Bessa
Serie A · 2022
29€2.5M€3.0Mrose
Simone Bastoni
Serie A · 2024
28€1.5M€1.5Mflat
Randy Nteka
Laliga · 2024
27€1.5M€1.0Mfell
David Meyler
Premier League · 2017
28€2.0M€1.0Mfell

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

DateFromToFeeMV at time
1 Jul 2026Dinamo ZagrebElche CF€1.0M€1.8M
30 Jun 2026Elche CFDinamo ZagrebFree / loan€1.8M
31 Jan 2026Dinamo ZagrebElche CFFree / loan€1.8M
1 Jul 2025Granada CFDinamo Zagreb€3.0M€2.0M
4 Aug 2023RomaGranada CF€1.8M€2.8M
30 Jun 2023GetafeRomaFree / loan€2.8M
13 Jan 2023RomaGetafeFree / loan€4.5M
12 Jan 2023SampdoriaRomaFree / loan€4.5M
8 Aug 2022RomaSampdoriaFree / loan€5.0M
30 Jun 2022GetafeRomaFree / loan€5.0M
13 Jan 2022RomaGetafeFree / loan€10.0M
30 Jan 2020Elche CFRoma€5.0M€700k
9 Jul 2018Valencia BElche CF€4.0M€200k
1 Jul 2017Valencia U19Valencia BUnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2015Elche U19Valencia U19€175kData unavailable

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.

Gonzalo Villar · MoneyballAI