
Gonzalo Villar
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Gonzalo Villar's performance-implied value at EUR 1.4M-3.1M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.7M-1.9M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.8M-1.9M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.02x the positional average in the league (718 minutes, league coefficient 0.95). Confidence is low: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: not assigned
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
Insufficient sample (< 900 league minutes)
| Performance | Average | 46.2th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 28.3 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €1.1M vs market €1.8M |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -22% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.95 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Low |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1164 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 718 (21% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.13
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.22
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 46 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.95 (rank 25)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1389
- Opponent strength
- 1466
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €756k – €1.9M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -18% (IQR -46% to +0%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ▲Small sample: 718 league minutes last season.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Elche CF | Laliga | CM | 12 | 718 | 21% | 1 | 0 | 0.13 | 0.22 | 1466 | 1389 | 0.95 |
| 2023/24 | Granada CF | Laliga | CM | 35 | 1785 | 52% | 1 | 3 | 0.20 | 0.33 | 1483 | 1315 | 1.00 |
| 2022/23 | UC Sampdoria | Serie A | DM | 15 | 695 | 20% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.10 | 1479 | 1271 | 0.94 |
| 2022/23 | Getafe CF | Laliga | CM | 16 | 445 | 13% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.17 | 1475 | 1434 | 0.98 |
| 2021/22 | Getafe CF | Laliga | CM | 10 | 291 | 9% | 0 | 1 | 0.31 | 0.36 | 1619 | 1458 | 1.05 |
| 2020/21 | Associazione Sportiva Roma | Serie A | DM | 33 | 1861 | 54% | 0 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.04 | 1433 | 1591 | 0.90 |
| 2019/20 | Associazione Sportiva Roma | Serie A | DM | 9 | 293 | 9% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 1439 | 1582 | 0.82 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Europa League | GNK Dinamo Zagreb | 3 | 26 | 0 | 0 | 1526 |
| 2023/24 | Copa Del Rey | Granada CF | 1 | 59 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2022/23 | Italy Cup | UC Sampdoria | 1 | 74 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | Associazione Sportiva Roma | 1 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 1382 |
| 2020/21 | Uefa Europa League | Associazione Sportiva Roma | 13 | 786 | 0 | 0 | 1571 |
| 2020/21 | Italy Cup | Associazione Sportiva Roma | 1 | 69 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2019/20 | Copa Del Rey | Elche CF | 2 | 63 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2019/20 | Uefa Europa League | Associazione Sportiva Roma | 2 | 19 | 0 | 0 | 1629 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raphael Martinho Serie A · 2016 | 28 | €1.3M | €300k | fell |
| Jailson Laliga · 2024 | 29 | €1.5M | €1.5M | flat |
| Valentin Eysseric Serie A · 2021 | 29 | €1.5M | €1.5M | flat |
| Valerio Verre Serie A · 2022 | 28 | €2.5M | €1.4M | fell |
| Daniel Bessa Serie A · 2022 | 29 | €2.5M | €3.0M | rose |
| Simone Bastoni Serie A · 2024 | 28 | €1.5M | €1.5M | flat |
| Randy Nteka Laliga · 2024 | 27 | €1.5M | €1.0M | fell |
| David Meyler Premier League · 2017 | 28 | €2.0M | €1.0M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2026 | Dinamo Zagreb | Elche CF | €1.0M | €1.8M |
| 30 Jun 2026 | Elche CF | Dinamo Zagreb | Free / loan | €1.8M |
| 31 Jan 2026 | Dinamo Zagreb | Elche CF | Free / loan | €1.8M |
| 1 Jul 2025 | Granada CF | Dinamo Zagreb | €3.0M | €2.0M |
| 4 Aug 2023 | Roma | Granada CF | €1.8M | €2.8M |
| 30 Jun 2023 | Getafe | Roma | Free / loan | €2.8M |
| 13 Jan 2023 | Roma | Getafe | Free / loan | €4.5M |
| 12 Jan 2023 | Sampdoria | Roma | Free / loan | €4.5M |
| 8 Aug 2022 | Roma | Sampdoria | Free / loan | €5.0M |
| 30 Jun 2022 | Getafe | Roma | Free / loan | €5.0M |
| 13 Jan 2022 | Roma | Getafe | Free / loan | €10.0M |
| 30 Jan 2020 | Elche CF | Roma | €5.0M | €700k |
| 9 Jul 2018 | Valencia B | Elche CF | €4.0M | €200k |
| 1 Jul 2017 | Valencia U19 | Valencia B | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2015 | Elche U19 | Valencia U19 | €175k | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.