Liziero
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Liziero's performance-implied value at EUR 0.6M-1.3M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.5M-1.4M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.7M-1.6M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.12x the positional average in the league (2347 minutes, league coefficient 0.58). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 61
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 20.1th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 28.4 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €963k vs market €1.5M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -29% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.58 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2347 (77% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.15
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.24
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 20 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.58 (rank 9)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1231
- Opponent strength
- 1344
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €704k – €1.6M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -15% (IQR -40% to +0%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.58 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 58 (MID)
- Relative output kept
- 72%–151%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 78%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | CD Nacional | Liga Portugal | CM | 28 | 2347 | 77% | 0 | 4 | 0.15 | 0.25 | 1344 | 1231 | 0.58 |
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ibrahima Seck Jupiler Pro League · 2017 | 28 | €1.2M | €1.7M | rose |
| Loret Sadiku Super Lig · 2019 | 28 | €1.3M | €850k | fell |
| Onur Kaya Jupiler Pro League · 2013 | 27 | €800k | €800k | flat |
| Nuno Coelho Liga Portugal · 2015 | 28 | €1.3M | €1.3M | flat |
| David Hubert Jupiler Pro League · 2016 | 28 | €800k | €600k | fell |
| David Simão Liga Portugal · 2018 | 28 | €1.5M | €475k | fell |
| Carlinhos Liga Portugal · 2022 | 28 | €1.2M | €1.2M | flat |
| Rachid Farssi Jupiler Pro League · 2013 | 28 | €600k | €250k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 Jul 2025 | São Paulo | Nacional | Free / loan | €1.2M |
| 30 Jun 2024 | Yverdon Sport | São Paulo | Free / loan | €1.5M |
| 6 Sept 2023 | São Paulo | Yverdon Sport | Free / loan | €2.5M |
| 31 Aug 2023 | Coritiba FC | São Paulo | Free / loan | €2.5M |
| 10 Feb 2023 | São Paulo | Coritiba FC | Free / loan | €3.0M |
| 31 Dec 2022 | Internacional | São Paulo | Free / loan | €3.0M |
| 24 Jan 2022 | São Paulo | Internacional | Free / loan | €4.0M |
| 1 Jan 2018 | São Paulo U20 | São Paulo | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.