Exequiel Palacios
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Exequiel Palacios's performance-implied value at EUR 6.8M-15.1M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 12.8M-26.5M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 6.6M-18.9M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.38x the positional average in the league (1097 minutes, league coefficient 0.94). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 4
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | High | 81.1th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 27.7 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €19.7M vs market €25.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -54% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.94 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1097 (36% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.08
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.08
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 81 (High)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.94 (rank 3)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1626
- Opponent strength
- 1450
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €6.6M – €18.9M
Trajectory drivers: relative output down 66% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -60% (IQR -67% to -47%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠Limited sample: 1097 league minutes last season.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Bayer 04 Leverkusen | Bundesliga | CM | 18 | 1097 | 36% | 0 | 1 | 0.08 | 0.08 | 1450 | 1626 | 0.94 |
| 2024/25 | Bayer 04 Leverkusen | Bundesliga | CM | 24 | 1150 | 38% | 1 | 6 | 0.55 | 0.23 | 1482 | 1681 | 0.94 |
| 2023/24 | Bayer 04 Leverkusen | Bundesliga | DM | 24 | 1840 | 60% | 4 | 4 | 0.39 | 0.19 | 1515 | 1787 | 1.01 |
| 2022/23 | Bayer 04 Leverkusen | Bundesliga | CM | 25 | 1657 | 54% | 4 | 2 | 0.33 | 0.22 | 1511 | 1601 | 1.04 |
| 2021/22 | Bayer 04 Leverkusen | Bundesliga | CM | 23 | 1094 | 36% | 2 | 2 | 0.33 | 0.23 | 1510 | 1639 | 1.05 |
| 2020/21 | Bayer 04 Leverkusen | Bundesliga | CM | 9 | 573 | 19% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.11 | 1530 | 1563 | 1.06 |
| 2019/20 | Bayer 04 Leverkusen | Bundesliga | CM | 3 | 177 | 6% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.14 | 1561 | 1654 | 1.06 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Champions League | Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 5 | 335 | 0 | 0 | 1702 |
| 2025/26 | Dfb Pokal | Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 2 | 148 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2025/26 | World Cup | Argentina | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Champions League | Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 10 | 664 | 0 | 0 | 1691 |
| 2024/25 | Dfb Pokal | Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 4 | 309 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Europa League | Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 9 | 578 | 0 | 1 | 1570 |
| 2023/24 | Dfb Pokal | Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 3 | 243 | 2 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Europa League | Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 6 | 515 | 1 | 0 | 1576 |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Champions League | Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 2 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1534 |
| 2022/23 | Dfb Pokal | Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 1 | 21 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Europa League | Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 7 | 377 | 1 | 0 | 1550 |
| 2021/22 | Dfb Pokal | Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 2 | 80 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2020/21 | Uefa Europa League | Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 1 | 74 | 0 | 1 | 1479 |
| 2020/21 | Dfb Pokal | Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 2 | 63 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2019/20 | Uefa Europa League | Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 2 | 146 | 0 | 0 | 1600 |
| 2019/20 | Dfb Pokal | Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 2 | 110 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lassana Diarra Premier Liga · 2013 | 28 | €14.0M | €4.0M | fell |
| Sven Bender Bundesliga · 2015 | 26 | €13.0M | €7.0M | fell |
| Federico Bernardeschi Serie A · 2021 | 27 | €15.0M | €8.0M | fell |
| Arthur Melo Serie A · 2021 | 25 | €40.0M | €15.0M | fell |
| Tanguy Ndombélé Serie A · 2023 | 27 | €22.0M | €7.0M | fell |
| Mikel John Obi Premier League · 2013 | 26 | €23.0M | €10.0M | fell |
| Matteo Pessina Serie A · 2022 | 25 | €16.0M | €15.0M | flat |
| Jérémy Toulalan Laliga · 2013 | 30 | €15.0M | €5.0M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jan 2020 | River Plate | Leverkusen | €17.0M | €25.0M |
| 1 Jan 2017 | River Plate II | River Plate | Unknown | €300k |
| 1 Jul 2015 | River Plate U20 | River Plate II | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.