Yaya Sithole
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Yaya Sithole's performance-implied value at EUR 0.4M-0.7M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.2M-0.6M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.3M-0.9M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.84x the positional average in the league (1542 minutes, league coefficient 0.58). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: 98
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 9th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 27.3 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €272k vs market €600k |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | +3% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.58 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1542 (50% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.06
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.18
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 9 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.58 (rank 9)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1194
- Opponent strength
- 1364
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €322k – €855k
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -28% (IQR -56% to +14%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ⚠Limited sample: 1542 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.58 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 58 (MID)
- Relative output kept
- 72%–151%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 78%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | CD Tondela | Liga Portugal | CM | 26 | 1542 | 50% | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.18 | 1364 | 1194 | 0.58 |
| 2024/25 | Gil Vicente FC | Liga Portugal | CM | 2 | 51 | 2% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.28 | 1422 | 1235 | 0.51 |
| 2021/22 | B SAD | Liga Portugal | CM | 25 | 1498 | 49% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.10 | 1357 | 1246 | 0.67 |
| 2020/21 | B SAD | Liga Portugal | CM | 25 | 1747 | 57% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.10 | 1376 | 1292 | 0.61 |
| 2019/20 | B SAD | Liga Portugal | CM | 1 | 13 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.47 | 1561 | 1243 | 0.59 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Africa Cup Of Nations | South Africa | 3 | 210 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2025/26 | World Cup | South Africa | 2 | 139 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yevgen Smirnov Premier Liga · 2019 | 26 | €500k | €225k | fell |
| Andrew Hjulsager Jupiler Pro League · 2020 | 25 | €725k | €2.5M | rose |
| Anton Postupalenko Premier Liga · 2016 | 28 | €300k | €500k | rose |
| Ahmed El Messaoudi Eredivisie · 2023 | 28 | €600k | €600k | flat |
| Kerim Frei Eredivisie · 2021 | 28 | €500k | €300k | fell |
| Oleksandr Maksymov Premier Liga · 2014 | 29 | €500k | €150k | fell |
| Chima Akas Liga Portugal · 2022 | 28 | €350k | €300k | flat |
| Luis Fariña Super League 1 · 2017 | 26 | €750k | €300k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Jun 2025 | Gil Vicente | Tondela | Free / loan | €200k |
| 22 Jul 2024 | Tondela | Gil Vicente | Free / loan | €275k |
| 11 Jul 2023 | B SAD | Tondela | Unknown | €175k |
| 26 Oct 2020 | B SAD U23 | B SAD | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 16 Jan 2019 | Vitória FC U23 | B SAD U23 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Aug 2018 | KZN Academy | Vitória FC U23 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 30 Jun 2018 | Sporting U19 | KZN Academy | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 25 Aug 2017 | KZN Academy | Sporting U19 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.