Boyd Lucassen
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Boyd Lucassen's performance-implied value at EUR 0.3M-0.4M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.1M-0.3M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.2M-0.4M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: 95
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 2.8th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 28 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €104k vs market €350k |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | -10% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.43 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Very High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1108 (36% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.08
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.16
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 3 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.43 (rank 15)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1118
- Opponent strength
- 1351
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €224k – €395k
Trajectory drivers: relative output down 29% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -6% (IQR -25% to +0%).
Risk profile
Overall: Very High
- ⚠Limited sample: 1108 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.43 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 82 (DEF)
- Relative output kept
- 65%–166%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 78%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | NAC Breda | Eredivisie | RB | 20 | 1108 | 36% | 1 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.16 | 1351 | 1118 | 0.43 |
| 2024/25 | NAC Breda | Eredivisie | RB | 18 | 1227 | 40% | 1 | 1 | 0.15 | 0.22 | 1330 | 1125 | 0.50 |
| 2021/22 | Go Ahead Eagles | Eredivisie | RB | 31 | 2112 | 69% | 1 | 1 | 0.09 | 0.16 | 1364 | 1188 | 0.60 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Knvb Beker | NAC Breda | 1 | 45 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Knvb Beker | NAC Breda | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Knvb Beker | Go Ahead Eagles | 5 | 209 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aristidis Soiledis Super League 1 · 2018 | 27 | €350k | €550k | rose |
| Berkay Sülüngöz Super Lig · 2024 | 28 | €200k | €200k | flat |
| Ben Purrington Scottish Premiership · 2023 | 27 | €450k | €400k | flat |
| Simon Jakobsen Superliga · 2020 | 30 | €200k | €150k | fell |
| Krzysztof Krol Super League 1 · 2016 | 29 | €200k | €200k | flat |
| Ivan Milicevic Super League 1 · 2024 | 26 | €600k | €600k | flat |
| Anastasios Tsokanis Super League 1 · 2019 | 28 | €400k | €300k | fell |
| Daniel Adejo Super League 1 · 2018 | 29 | €400k | €300k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2022 | Go Ahead Eagles | NAC Breda | Free / loan | €450k |
| 1 Jul 2019 | Vitesse U21 | Go Ahead Eagles | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2017 | Vitesse U19 | Vitesse U21 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2015 | Vitesse U17 | Vitesse U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2014 | Vitesse Youth | Vitesse U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.