Miguel Nóbrega
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Miguel Nóbrega's performance-implied value at EUR 0.5M-1.2M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.1M-0.5M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.3M-0.6M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 86
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 13.9th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 26.2 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €290k vs market €400k |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | +8% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.58 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1000 (33% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.09
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.07
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 14 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.58 (rank 9)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1361
- Opponent strength
- 1341
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €280k – €620k
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -25% (IQR -35% to -4%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ⚠Limited sample: 1000 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.58 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 66 (DEF)
- Relative output kept
- 57%–168%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 76%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Vitória Guimarães SC | Liga Portugal | CB | 13 | 1000 | 33% | 1 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.07 | 1341 | 1361 | 0.58 |
| 2024/25 | Rio Ave FC | Liga Portugal | CB | 1 | 90 | 3% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.13 | 1659 | 1270 | 0.51 |
| 2023/24 | Rio Ave FC | Liga Portugal | CB | 22 | 1626 | 53% | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.07 | 1387 | 1317 | 0.58 |
| 2022/23 | Rio Ave FC | Liga Portugal | CB | 11 | 559 | 18% | 0 | 1 | 0.16 | 0.13 | 1423 | 1329 | 0.68 |
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bryan Verboom Jupiler Pro League · 2018 | 26 | €500k | €250k | fell |
| Cleylton Liga Portugal · 2019 | 26 | €400k | €400k | flat |
| Dylan Ouedraogo Jupiler Pro League · 2023 | 25 | €450k | €300k | fell |
| Nick Kuipers Eredivisie · 2019 | 27 | €450k | €425k | flat |
| Baptiste Ulens Jupiler Pro League · 2015 | 28 | €500k | €350k | fell |
| Nanu Liga Portugal · 2019 | 25 | €300k | €3.0M | rose |
| Vitaliy Lystsov Premier Liga · 2022 | 27 | €500k | €300k | fell |
| Coronas Liga Portugal · 2015 | 25 | €500k | €400k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2025 | Rio Ave | Vit. Guimarães | Free / loan | €400k |
| 30 Jun 2025 | Piast Gliwice | Rio Ave | Free / loan | €400k |
| 6 Sept 2024 | Rio Ave | Piast Gliwice | Free / loan | €600k |
| 15 Jul 2022 | Benfica B | Rio Ave | Free / loan | €225k |
| 1 Jul 2021 | Benfica U23 | Benfica B | Unknown | €200k |
| 30 Jun 2021 | Grasshoppers | Benfica U23 | Free / loan | €200k |
| 30 Sept 2020 | Benfica U23 | Grasshoppers | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2018 | Benfica U19 | Benfica U23 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2017 | Benfica U17 | Benfica U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2015 | Benfica U15 | Benfica U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2013 | Benfica Yth | Benfica U15 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2012 | Nacional Yth. | Benfica Yth | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2010 | Marítimo Y | Nacional Yth. | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.