Thomas Henry

32 yrs · Striker · France
Standard Liège · Jupiler Pro League · Foot: right · Height: 191 cm
Risk: HighConfidence: MediumSample: MediumDevelopment: LowContract: until 30 Jun 2027
Market value
€500k
Updated today
Estimated acquisition
€148k – €480k
Estimated · 20–80% range
Model value
€361k – €2.0M
Performance-implied · estimated
Projected (24m)
€188k – €488k
Resale range · estimated
Potential value gap
-€118k – €1.9M
Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€148k – €480k
Model value (performance-implied)€361k – €2.0M
Projected value (24 months)€188k – €488k
Dashed line: current market value (€500k). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates Thomas Henry's performance-implied value at EUR 0.4M-2.0M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.1M-0.5M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.2M-0.5M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.94x the positional average in the league (1361 minutes, league coefficient 0.65). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.

Bargain Index: 75

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

PerformanceBelow average28.2th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral)
AgeUnfavorable31.8 years
Acquisition costVery favorableest. €198k vs market €500k
Expected appreciationVery low-36% over ~2 years (model)
Value gapVery largeweak predictor on its own
DevelopmentLow
League translationModerateleague coefficient 0.65
Tactical fitNot evaluatedRequires event/role data not available from the current free source.
RiskHigh
Data confidenceMedium

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €5.0M

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes
1361 (50% of available)
Goals + assists / 90
0.33
Context-adjusted G+A / 90
0.48
xG, xA, progression
Data unavailable
Defensive actions
Data unavailable
Performance percentile
28 (Below average)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength
0.65 (rank 6)
Team strength (Elo)
1341
Opponent strength
1369
Possession, role
Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development
Low
Trajectory
insufficient
Breakout probability
Age > 23
Resale range (24m)
€188k – €488k

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -49% (IQR -58% to -39%).

Risk profile

Overall: High

  • ⚠Limited sample: 1361 league minutes last season.
  • ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
  • ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
  • ⚠Age 32: resale value typically declines.
  • ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Historical movers
78 (ATT)
Relative output kept
72%–126%
Held a regular role (900+ min)
60%
Confidence
Medium

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

SeasonClubLeaguePosAppsMinMin shareGAG+A/90Adj. G+A/90Opp. EloTeam EloLeague str.
2025/26Standard LiègeJupiler Pro LeagueST21136150%320.330.48136913410.65
2023/24Hellas VeronaSerie AST183229%300.840.85145713810.98
2022/23Hellas VeronaSerie AST16103630%210.260.45147013570.94
2021/22Venezia FCSerie AST33212162%930.510.74147512410.89
2021/22Oud-Heverlee LeuvenJupiler Pro LeagueST436012%300.750.62131412460.49
2020/21Oud-Heverlee LeuvenJupiler Pro LeagueST31277991%2160.870.83135712680.55
2015/16FC NantesLigue 1ST2261%000.000.54136613560.78

Cups & continental competitions

SeasonCompetitionClubAppsMinGAAvg opp. Elo
2023/24Italy CupHellas Verona1100—
2022/23Italy CupHellas Verona16000—
2021/22Italy CupVenezia FC14500—

Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)AgeValue then~2y laterOutcome
Dmitriy Sysuev
Premier Liga · 2019
31€700k€300kfell
Clément Tainmont
Jupiler Pro League · 2018
32€450k€250kfell
Sergey Kuznetsov
Premier Liga · 2014
32€500k€200kfell
Nikita Burmistrov
Premier Liga · 2020
31€550k€400kfell
Fabrício
Liga Portugal · 2021
31€700k€100kfell
Mustapha Yatabaré
Super Lig · 2019
33€450k€425kflat
Mads Junker
Jupiler Pro League · 2013
32€700k€400kfell
Tomas Necid
Eredivisie · 2020
31€650k€300kfell

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

DateFromToFeeMV at time
3 Jul 2025Hellas VeronaStandard LiègeFree / loan€1.0M
30 Jun 2025PalermoHellas VeronaFree / loan€1.0M
16 Jul 2024Hellas VeronaPalermoFree / loan€2.0M
16 Jul 2022VeneziaHellas Verona€5.2M€5.0M
24 Aug 2021OH LeuvenVenezia€5.5M€5.0M
17 Jan 2019AFC TubizeOH Leuven€500k€400k
1 Jul 2018FC Chambly OiseAFC TubizeFree / loan€150k
1 Jul 2016FC Nantes BFC Chambly OiseFree / loan€50k
1 Jul 2015Fréjus-St-Raph.FC Nantes BFree / loanData unavailable
1 Jul 2014AS BeauvaisFréjus-St-Raph.Free / loanData unavailable

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.