
Thomas Henry
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Thomas Henry's performance-implied value at EUR 0.4M-2.0M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.1M-0.5M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.2M-0.5M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.94x the positional average in the league (1361 minutes, league coefficient 0.65). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: 75
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 28.2th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 31.8 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €198k vs market €500k |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -36% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.65 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1361 (50% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.33
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.48
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 28 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.65 (rank 6)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1341
- Opponent strength
- 1369
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €188k – €488k
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -49% (IQR -58% to -39%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ⚠Limited sample: 1361 league minutes last season.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⚠Age 32: resale value typically declines.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 78 (ATT)
- Relative output kept
- 72%–126%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 60%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Standard Liège | Jupiler Pro League | ST | 21 | 1361 | 50% | 3 | 2 | 0.33 | 0.48 | 1369 | 1341 | 0.65 |
| 2023/24 | Hellas Verona | Serie A | ST | 18 | 322 | 9% | 3 | 0 | 0.84 | 0.85 | 1457 | 1381 | 0.98 |
| 2022/23 | Hellas Verona | Serie A | ST | 16 | 1036 | 30% | 2 | 1 | 0.26 | 0.45 | 1470 | 1357 | 0.94 |
| 2021/22 | Venezia FC | Serie A | ST | 33 | 2121 | 62% | 9 | 3 | 0.51 | 0.74 | 1475 | 1241 | 0.89 |
| 2021/22 | Oud-Heverlee Leuven | Jupiler Pro League | ST | 4 | 360 | 12% | 3 | 0 | 0.75 | 0.62 | 1314 | 1246 | 0.49 |
| 2020/21 | Oud-Heverlee Leuven | Jupiler Pro League | ST | 31 | 2779 | 91% | 21 | 6 | 0.87 | 0.83 | 1357 | 1268 | 0.55 |
| 2015/16 | FC Nantes | Ligue 1 | ST | 2 | 26 | 1% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.54 | 1366 | 1356 | 0.78 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023/24 | Italy Cup | Hellas Verona | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Italy Cup | Hellas Verona | 1 | 60 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Italy Cup | Venezia FC | 1 | 45 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dmitriy Sysuev Premier Liga · 2019 | 31 | €700k | €300k | fell |
| Clément Tainmont Jupiler Pro League · 2018 | 32 | €450k | €250k | fell |
| Sergey Kuznetsov Premier Liga · 2014 | 32 | €500k | €200k | fell |
| Nikita Burmistrov Premier Liga · 2020 | 31 | €550k | €400k | fell |
| Fabrício Liga Portugal · 2021 | 31 | €700k | €100k | fell |
| Mustapha Yatabaré Super Lig · 2019 | 33 | €450k | €425k | flat |
| Mads Junker Jupiler Pro League · 2013 | 32 | €700k | €400k | fell |
| Tomas Necid Eredivisie · 2020 | 31 | €650k | €300k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Jul 2025 | Hellas Verona | Standard Liège | Free / loan | €1.0M |
| 30 Jun 2025 | Palermo | Hellas Verona | Free / loan | €1.0M |
| 16 Jul 2024 | Hellas Verona | Palermo | Free / loan | €2.0M |
| 16 Jul 2022 | Venezia | Hellas Verona | €5.2M | €5.0M |
| 24 Aug 2021 | OH Leuven | Venezia | €5.5M | €5.0M |
| 17 Jan 2019 | AFC Tubize | OH Leuven | €500k | €400k |
| 1 Jul 2018 | FC Chambly Oise | AFC Tubize | Free / loan | €150k |
| 1 Jul 2016 | FC Nantes B | FC Chambly Oise | Free / loan | €50k |
| 1 Jul 2015 | Fréjus-St-Raph. | FC Nantes B | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2014 | AS Beauvais | Fréjus-St-Raph. | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.