Léo Pétrot
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Léo Pétrot's performance-implied value at EUR 1.5M-3.5M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.6M-1.7M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.6M-1.6M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 38
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Above average | 58.8th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 29.2 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €1.1M vs market €1.5M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -34% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.95 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1568 (46% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.00
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.04
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 59 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.95 (rank 2)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1389
- Opponent strength
- 1486
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €637k – €1.6M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 39 pts; changed club; team strength up (+81 Elo); role change LB -> CB; relative output down 51% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -46% (IQR -62% to -19%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠Limited sample: 1568 league minutes last season.
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Elche CF | Laliga | CB | 32 | 1568 | 46% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 1486 | 1389 | 0.95 |
| 2024/25 | AS Saint-Étienne | Ligue 1 | LB | 31 | 2610 | 85% | 0 | 3 | 0.10 | 0.16 | 1460 | 1307 | 0.88 |
| 2021/22 | FC Lorient | Ligue 1 | CB | 22 | 1819 | 53% | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.07 | 1439 | 1335 | 0.86 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Copa Del Rey | Elche CF | 4 | 344 | 1 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bartosz Bereszyński Serie A · 2023 | 31 | €1.6M | €500k | fell |
| Enzo Roco Laliga · 2023 | 31 | €1.5M | €1.5M | flat |
| Matthias Ostrzolek Bundesliga · 2019 | 29 | €1.5M | €300k | fell |
| Dylan Bronn Serie A · 2023 | 28 | €2.5M | €1.0M | fell |
| Carlos Clerc Laliga · 2022 | 30 | €2.0M | €1.5M | fell |
| François Moubandje Ligue 1 · 2018 | 28 | €2.5M | €1.6M | fell |
| John Brooks Bundesliga · 2023 | 30 | €2.0M | €2.0M | flat |
| Réginal Goreux Premier Liga · 2015 | 27 | €2.0M | €900k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Jul 2025 | Saint-Étienne | Elche CF | Free / loan | €900k |
| 30 Aug 2022 | FC Lorient | Saint-Étienne | €500k | €1.0M |
| 16 Jul 2021 | Andrézieux | FC Lorient | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 23 Jul 2019 | Saint-Étienne B | Andrézieux | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2015 | St-Étienne U19 | Saint-Étienne B | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2014 | St-Étienne U17 | St-Étienne U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.