
Sikou Niakaté
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Sikou Niakaté's performance-implied value at EUR 1.4M-4.8M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 3.2M-7.0M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 2.6M-5.7M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 23
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Above average | 59.6th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 27 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €5.1M vs market €6.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -33% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.58 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 939 (31% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.10
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.06
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 60 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.58 (rank 9)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1533
- Opponent strength
- 1316
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €2.6M – €5.7M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 33 pts.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -63% (IQR -72% to -58%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ⚠Limited sample: 939 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.58 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 66 (DEF)
- Relative output kept
- 57%–168%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 76%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | SC Braga | Liga Portugal | CB | 11 | 939 | 31% | 0 | 1 | 0.10 | 0.06 | 1316 | 1533 | 0.58 |
| 2024/25 | SC Braga | Liga Portugal | CB | 24 | 1963 | 64% | 1 | 1 | 0.09 | 0.06 | 1336 | 1478 | 0.51 |
| 2023/24 | SC Braga | Liga Portugal | CB | 19 | 1479 | 48% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 1386 | 1499 | 0.58 |
| 2022/23 | SC Braga | Liga Portugal | CB | 26 | 2132 | 70% | 3 | 0 | 0.13 | 0.09 | 1396 | 1557 | 0.68 |
| 2021/22 | FC Metz | Ligue 1 | CB | 12 | 661 | 19% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 1423 | 1308 | 0.86 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Europa League | SC Braga | 7 | 548 | 0 | 0 | 1506 |
| 2025/26 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | SC Braga | 5 | 371 | 0 | 0 | 1358 |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Europa League | SC Braga | 6 | 439 | 1 | 0 | 1550 |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | SC Braga | 4 | 360 | 0 | 0 | 1414 |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Champions League | SC Braga | 5 | 390 | 1 | 0 | 1687 |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Champions League Qualifying | SC Braga | 4 | 319 | 0 | 0 | 1376 |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Europa League | SC Braga | 2 | 210 | 0 | 0 | 1542 |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Europa League | SC Braga | 1 | 76 | 0 | 0 | 1522 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bart Nieuwkoop Eredivisie · 2024 | 28 | €4.0M | €1.5M | fell |
| Léo Dubois Super Lig · 2023 | 29 | €5.5M | €2.0M | fell |
| Rodrigão Premier Liga · 2024 | 29 | €5.0M | €2.5M | fell |
| Bubacarr Sanneh Jupiler Pro League · 2019 | 25 | €3.5M | €700k | fell |
| İsmail Köybaşı Super Lig · 2017 | 28 | €3.0M | €500k | fell |
| Yevgen Khacheridi Premier Liga · 2017 | 30 | €5.5M | €1.8M | fell |
| Ezequiel Schelotto Liga Portugal · 2016 | 27 | €2.8M | €4.5M | rose |
| Vitaliy Mandzyuk Premier Liga · 2014 | 28 | €2.5M | €1.0M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2023 | Guingamp | Braga | €1.8M | €4.0M |
| 30 Jun 2023 | Braga | Guingamp | Free / loan | €4.0M |
| 1 Jul 2022 | Guingamp | Braga | Free / loan | €1.8M |
| 30 Jun 2022 | FC Metz | Guingamp | Free / loan | €1.8M |
| 12 Aug 2021 | Guingamp | FC Metz | Free / loan | €2.2M |
| 30 Jun 2019 | Valenciennes FC | Guingamp | Free / loan | €1.3M |
| 31 Aug 2018 | Guingamp | Valenciennes FC | Free / loan | €800k |
| 30 Aug 2018 | Valenciennes FC | Guingamp | €2.5M | €800k |
| 1 Jul 2017 | VAFC U19 | Valenciennes FC | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Aug 2016 | Évreux FC U19 | VAFC U19 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2015 | ACBB U17 | Évreux FC U19 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2014 | ACBB Youth | ACBB U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2013 | PSG Youth | ACBB Youth | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.