Sikou Niakaté

27 yrs · Centre-back · Mali
SC Braga · Liga Portugal · Foot: left · Height: 186 cm
Risk: HighConfidence: MediumSample: MediumDevelopment: LowContract: until 30 Jun 2028
Market value
€6.0M
Updated 6 days ago
Estimated acquisition
€3.2M – €7.0M
Estimated · 20–80% range
Model value
€1.4M – €4.8M
Performance-implied · estimated
Projected (24m)
€2.6M – €5.7M
Resale range · estimated
Potential value gap
-€5.6M – €1.6M
Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€3.2M – €7.0M
Model value (performance-implied)€1.4M – €4.8M
Projected value (24 months)€2.6M – €5.7M
Dashed line: current market value (€6.0M). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates Sikou Niakaté's performance-implied value at EUR 1.4M-4.8M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 3.2M-7.0M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 2.6M-5.7M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Bargain Index: 23

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

PerformanceAbove average59.6th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral)
AgeNeutral27 years
Acquisition costFavorableest. €5.1M vs market €6.0M
Expected appreciationVery low-33% over ~2 years (model)
Value gapVery negativeweak predictor on its own
DevelopmentLow
League translationModerateleague coefficient 0.58
Tactical fitNot evaluatedRequires event/role data not available from the current free source.
RiskHigh
Data confidenceMedium

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €8.0M

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes
939 (31% of available)
Goals + assists / 90
0.10
Context-adjusted G+A / 90
0.06
xG, xA, progression
Data unavailable
Defensive actions
Data unavailable
Performance percentile
60 (Above average)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength
0.58 (rank 9)
Team strength (Elo)
1533
Opponent strength
1316
Possession, role
Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development
Low
Trajectory
declining
Breakout probability
Age > 23
Resale range (24m)
€2.6M – €5.7M

Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 33 pts.

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -63% (IQR -72% to -58%).

Risk profile

Overall: High

  • ⚠Limited sample: 939 league minutes last season.
  • ⚠League level coefficient 0.58 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
  • ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
  • ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
  • ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Historical movers
66 (DEF)
Relative output kept
57%–168%
Held a regular role (900+ min)
76%
Confidence
Medium

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

SeasonClubLeaguePosAppsMinMin shareGAG+A/90Adj. G+A/90Opp. EloTeam EloLeague str.
2025/26SC BragaLiga PortugalCB1193931%010.100.06131615330.58
2024/25SC BragaLiga PortugalCB24196364%110.090.06133614780.51
2023/24SC BragaLiga PortugalCB19147948%000.000.02138614990.58
2022/23SC BragaLiga PortugalCB26213270%300.130.09139615570.68
2021/22FC MetzLigue 1CB1266119%000.000.06142313080.86

Cups & continental competitions

SeasonCompetitionClubAppsMinGAAvg opp. Elo
2025/26Uefa Europa LeagueSC Braga7548001506
2025/26Uefa Europa League QualifyingSC Braga5371001358
2024/25Uefa Europa LeagueSC Braga6439101550
2024/25Uefa Europa League QualifyingSC Braga4360001414
2023/24Uefa Champions LeagueSC Braga5390101687
2023/24Uefa Champions League QualifyingSC Braga4319001376
2023/24Uefa Europa LeagueSC Braga2210001542
2022/23Uefa Europa LeagueSC Braga176001522

Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)AgeValue then~2y laterOutcome
Bart Nieuwkoop
Eredivisie · 2024
28€4.0M€1.5Mfell
Léo Dubois
Super Lig · 2023
29€5.5M€2.0Mfell
Rodrigão
Premier Liga · 2024
29€5.0M€2.5Mfell
Bubacarr Sanneh
Jupiler Pro League · 2019
25€3.5M€700kfell
İsmail Köybaşı
Super Lig · 2017
28€3.0M€500kfell
Yevgen Khacheridi
Premier Liga · 2017
30€5.5M€1.8Mfell
Ezequiel Schelotto
Liga Portugal · 2016
27€2.8M€4.5Mrose
Vitaliy Mandzyuk
Premier Liga · 2014
28€2.5M€1.0Mfell

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

DateFromToFeeMV at time
1 Jul 2023GuingampBraga€1.8M€4.0M
30 Jun 2023BragaGuingampFree / loan€4.0M
1 Jul 2022GuingampBragaFree / loan€1.8M
30 Jun 2022FC MetzGuingampFree / loan€1.8M
12 Aug 2021GuingampFC MetzFree / loan€2.2M
30 Jun 2019Valenciennes FCGuingampFree / loan€1.3M
31 Aug 2018GuingampValenciennes FCFree / loan€800k
30 Aug 2018Valenciennes FCGuingamp€2.5M€800k
1 Jul 2017VAFC U19Valenciennes FCUnknownData unavailable
1 Aug 2016Évreux FC U19VAFC U19Free / loanData unavailable
1 Jul 2015ACBB U17Évreux FC U19Free / loanData unavailable
1 Jul 2014ACBB YouthACBB U17UnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2013PSG YouthACBB YouthFree / loanData unavailable

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.