Ricky van Wolfswinkel
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Ricky van Wolfswinkel's performance-implied value at EUR 0.3M-1.1M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.1M-0.3M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.1M-0.2M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.62x the positional average in the league (1727 minutes, league coefficient 0.43). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Contract end date unavailable: range widened by 15% each side.
Bargain Index: not assigned
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
Market value below EUR 250k (outside validated pool)
| Performance | Above average | 55.7th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 37.4 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €129k vs market €200k |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -10% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.43 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1727 (56% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.42
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.31
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 56 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.43 (rank 15)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1403
- Opponent strength
- 1265
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- stable
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €89k – €201k
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -25% (IQR -63% to +0%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ▲Age 37: resale value typically declines.
- ⚠Limited sample: 1727 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.43 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⓘContract end date unavailable (or stale in source).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 82 (ATT)
- Relative output kept
- 73%–122%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 61%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | FC Twente Enschede | Eredivisie | ST | 31 | 1727 | 56% | 8 | 0 | 0.42 | 0.31 | 1265 | 1403 | 0.43 |
| 2024/25 | FC Twente Enschede | Eredivisie | ST | 26 | 1602 | 52% | 7 | 1 | 0.45 | 0.38 | 1285 | 1409 | 0.50 |
| 2023/24 | FC Twente Enschede | Eredivisie | ST | 32 | 1876 | 61% | 16 | 1 | 0.82 | 0.45 | 1326 | 1466 | 0.48 |
| 2022/23 | FC Twente Enschede | Eredivisie | ST | 34 | 2535 | 83% | 9 | 6 | 0.53 | 0.41 | 1347 | 1505 | 0.58 |
| 2021/22 | FC Twente Enschede | Eredivisie | ST | 32 | 2572 | 84% | 16 | 8 | 0.84 | 0.76 | 1338 | 1435 | 0.60 |
| 2016/17 | Vitesse Arnhem | Eredivisie | ST | 32 | 2764 | 90% | 20 | 4 | 0.78 | 0.65 | 1347 | 1358 | 0.54 |
| 2015/16 | Real Betis Balompié | Laliga | ST | 16 | 615 | 18% | 1 | 2 | 0.44 | 0.59 | 1599 | 1468 | 1.17 |
| 2014/15 | AS Saint-Étienne | Ligue 1 | ST | 28 | 1608 | 47% | 5 | 3 | 0.45 | 0.42 | 1448 | 1546 | 0.80 |
| 2013/14 | Norwich City | Premier League | ST | 25 | 1394 | 41% | 1 | 2 | 0.19 | 0.40 | 1536 | 1408 | 1.12 |
| 2012/13 | Sporting CP | Liga Portugal | ST | 30 | 2700 | 100% | 14 | 2 | 0.53 | 0.54 | 1424 | 1481 | 0.86 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Knvb Beker | FC Twente Enschede | 2 | 76 | 2 | 1 | — |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Europa League | FC Twente Enschede | 10 | 830 | 2 | 0 | 1530 |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Champions League Qualifying | FC Twente Enschede | 2 | 180 | 0 | 1 | 1623 |
| 2024/25 | Knvb Beker | FC Twente Enschede | 2 | 135 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | FC Twente Enschede | 6 | 339 | 0 | 1 | 1419 |
| 2023/24 | Knvb Beker | FC Twente Enschede | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | FC Twente Enschede | 4 | 360 | 0 | 1 | 1407 |
| 2022/23 | Knvb Beker | FC Twente Enschede | 2 | 94 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Knvb Beker | FC Twente Enschede | 3 | 241 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2016/17 | Knvb Beker | Vitesse Arnhem | 5 | 388 | 3 | 2 | — |
| 2015/16 | Copa Del Rey | Real Betis Balompié | 3 | 257 | 2 | 0 | — |
| 2014/15 | Uefa Europa League | AS Saint-Étienne | 5 | 357 | 1 | 0 | 1500 |
| 2014/15 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | AS Saint-Étienne | 1 | 54 | 0 | 0 | 1433 |
| 2013/14 | Fa Cup | Norwich City | 2 | 135 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2012/13 | Uefa Europa League | Sporting CP | 5 | 420 | 1 | 0 | 1469 |
| 2012/13 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | Sporting CP | 2 | 180 | 2 | 0 | 1317 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Babel Super Lig · 2022 | 36 | €350k | €150k | fell |
| Thomas Buffel Jupiler Pro League · 2018 | 37 | €100k | €100k | flat |
| Steven MacLean Scottish Premiership · 2019 | 37 | €300k | €200k | fell |
| Silvestre Varela Liga Portugal · 2021 | 36 | €200k | €25k | fell |
| Demba Ba Super Lig · 2021 | 36 | €500k | €500k | flat |
| Cedric van der Gun Eredivisie · 2013 | 34 | €500k | €500k | flat |
| Mustapha Yatabaré Super Lig · 2023 | 37 | €150k | €125k | flat |
| Dimitar Rangelov Super Lig · 2017 | 34 | €300k | €75k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2026 | FC Twente | Retired | Unknown | €200k |
| 21 Jul 2021 | Basel | FC Twente | Free / loan | €500k |
| 1 Jul 2017 | Vitesse | Basel | €3.5M | €3.5M |
| 28 Jul 2016 | Norwich | Vitesse | €600k | €2.5M |
| 30 Jun 2016 | Real Betis | Norwich | Free / loan | €2.5M |
| 31 Aug 2015 | Norwich | Real Betis | Free / loan | €5.0M |
| 30 Jun 2015 | Saint-Étienne | Norwich | Free / loan | €5.0M |
| 5 Aug 2014 | Norwich | Saint-Étienne | Free / loan | €7.5M |
| 1 Jul 2013 | Sporting | Norwich | €10.0M | €10.5M |
| 1 Jul 2011 | Utrecht | Sporting | €5.1M | €6.0M |
| 1 Jul 2009 | Vitesse | Utrecht | €2.8M | €2.0M |
| 1 Jul 2007 | Vit./AGOVV U19 | Vitesse | Unknown | €50k |
| 1 Jul 2006 | VIT/AGOVV U17 | Vit./AGOVV U19 | Unknown | €50k |
| 1 Jul 2004 | Vitesse Youth | Vitesse U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2001 | Woudenberg Jgd. | Vitesse Youth | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.