Joe Worrall
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Joe Worrall's performance-implied value at EUR 1.8M-5.6M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.8M-3.5M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.7M-1.8M. Confidence is low: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: not assigned
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
Insufficient sample (< 900 league minutes)
| Performance | Above average | 64.3th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 29.5 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €1.5M vs market €2.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -30% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 1.3 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Low |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1269 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 497 (14% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.00
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.07
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 64 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 1.30 (rank 1)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1343
- Opponent strength
- 1622
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €716k – €1.8M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -76% (IQR -81% to -55%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ▲Small sample: 497 league minutes last season.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Burnley FC | Premier League | CB | 11 | 497 | 15% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 1622 | 1343 | 1.30 |
| 2023/24 | Beşiktaş Jimnastik Kulübü | Super Lig | CB | 6 | 495 | 14% | 1 | 0 | 0.18 | 0.09 | 1298 | 1336 | 0.45 |
| 2023/24 | Nottingham Forest | Premier League | CB | 7 | 440 | 13% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 1555 | 1428 | 1.14 |
| 2022/23 | Nottingham Forest | Premier League | CB | 30 | 2216 | 65% | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.08 | 1580 | 1433 | 1.23 |
| 2018/19 | Rangers FC | Scottish Premiership | CB | 21 | 1750 | 59% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 1299 | 1481 | 0.44 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023/24 | Fa Cup | Nottingham Forest | 2 | 105 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2018/19 | Uefa Europa League | Rangers FC | 4 | 360 | 0 | 0 | 1521 |
| 2018/19 | Scottish Fa Cup | Rangers FC | 4 | 360 | 1 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Greg Cunningham Premier League · 2019 | 28 | €3.0M | €1.2M | fell |
| Ryan Fredericks Premier League · 2023 | 31 | €1.5M | €1.0M | fell |
| Danny Rose Premier League · 2022 | 32 | €2.2M | €500k | fell |
| Kieran Gibbs Premier League · 2021 | 32 | €2.5M | €500k | fell |
| Timm Klose Premier League · 2020 | 32 | €2.0M | €300k | fell |
| Juan Sánchez Miño Laliga · 2021 | 31 | €2.5M | €350k | fell |
| John Egan Premier League · 2024 | 32 | €4.0M | €1.0M | fell |
| Gastón Silva Laliga · 2021 | 27 | €1.2M | €1.8M | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 Aug 2024 | Nott'm Forest | Burnley | €5.9M | €7.5M |
| 30 Jun 2024 | Besiktas | Nott'm Forest | Free / loan | €7.5M |
| 5 Feb 2024 | Nott'm Forest | Besiktas | Free / loan | €12.0M |
| 20 May 2019 | Rangers | Nott'm Forest | Free / loan | €8.0M |
| 31 Aug 2018 | Nott'm Forest | Rangers | Free / loan | €8.0M |
| 5 Apr 2016 | Dag & Red FC | Nott'm Forest | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 8 Jan 2016 | Nott'm Forest | Dag & Red FC | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2015 | Nottingham U18 | Nott'm Forest | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.